We’re nearing the end of the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, March 21st. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 21st
NBA Best Bets Today – March 21st
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 pm ET
The Nuggets sat Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in a blowout loss to the Lakers the other night. That wasn’t your typical planned rest spot. A few hours before the game, Mike Malone noted that both guys were pretty banged up. Well, Jokic is out again tonight. Meanwhile, Murray is listed as questionable. I’d be pretty surprised if Murray is out there this evening, but I’m not sure it really matters. Getting Portland as such a short favorite is too good to pass up here.
This is a Denver team that is three games into a four-game road trip, and the Nuggets have lost three of their last five contests. They’re just limping to the finish line right now, and it doesn’t seem like they care as much about seeding as they have in previous seasons. Malone just wants his guys healthy for the postseason. Meanwhile, the Blazers are on a three-game winning streak, and the last one was a 16-point win as 4.5-point home underdogs against the Grizzlies. This team definitely runs hot and cold, but this has been a good stretch for Chauncey Billups’ bunch. And the Blazers have all the motivation in the world to continue playing hard, as they’re just 2.0 games out of the 10th spot in the Western Conference.
It’s just hard to see how the Nuggets will go into a tough road environment and win tonight. Obviously, there’s still some talent in place when Jokic sits, but this is a team that has always had horrific numbers whenever the big man is off the floor. And over the last 15 games, the Blazers are third in the NBA in defensive rating (108.5). So, a Denver team playing without its offensive hub could struggle to get going.
Bet: Blazers ML (-112 – 1.5 units)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns – 10:00 pm ET
Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in! I was ready to declare this a lost season for my Suns, and it still pretty much is. The best-case scenario for the year is Phoenix grabbing the eighth seed through the Play-In Tournament and having the honor of getting dragged by Oklahoma City. However, making it to the playoffs is still the goal for a Suns team that doesn’t have control of its own first-round pick. Well, over the last seven games, Phoenix is 4-3 with a net rating of +7.4. In that span, the Suns are fourth in the league in offensive rating (121.1) and 16th in defensive rating (113.7). They have also been even better defensively over the last three four games, as they have a defensive rating of 109.9 in those contests. Why is that four-game sample significant? That coincides with Mike Budenholzer putting rookie Ryan Dunn, an awesome wing defender, back in the rotation. Dunn and fellow rookie Oso Ighodaro have given the team a much-needed jolt of athleticism and energy.
Obviously, you don’t want to get too carried away with a small sample size. And I’m not going to sit here and tell you Phoenix is on Cleveland’s level. If these teams met in the playoffs, you’d probably see a sweep. However, the Cavaliers are playing their third game in four nights, which is a brutal rest spot for any team. So, the Suns should have fresher legs tonight, and they should also be ready to give everything they have. They need this win in order to stay in the 10th spot in the Western Conference, and rest can wait for the weekend. Phoenix has Saturday and Sunday off before a Monday meeting with Milwaukee.
It’s also worth noting that Cleveland is just 3-7 against the spread in March. We haven’t seen the Cavaliers’ best basketball lately, which isn’t surprising considering they’re going to be the top seed in the East and have to be thinking about the playoffs by now.
Bet: Suns +8.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Suns ML (+280 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 21st
Philadelphia 76ers at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 pm ET
I’m going to continue leaning on our NBA Prop Bet Analyzer for ideas when it comes to hitting the player prop market. I’ve been on a nice run with these over the last few weeks, so why go away from it now? Well, the player it has me targeting this evening is Quentin Grimes. The deadline acquisition has been awesome since arriving in Philadelphia, averaging 21.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game. He has also been even better as of late, averaging 28.5 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game in the month of March. Grimes has also scored at least 28 points in five consecutive games, and he isn’t one to just focus on his own shot creation. He’s a good playmaker and he hits the glass hard for a guard. That said, I trust him to put up some huge numbers in a matchup with a Spurs team that is 25th in the league in adjusted defensive rating (116.0).
Bet: Grimes Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)
Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz – 9:30 pm ET
Another play I like tonight is for Isaiah Collier to go Over 6.5 assists against the Celtics. Collier only had four dimes in a meeting with Boston on March 10th, but that was a road game. The rookie has been much more comfortable at home this season, averaging 8.8 points, 6.5 assists and only 2.6 turnovers per game in 31 games in Salt Lake City. On the road, he’s averaging 7.1 points, 5.9 assists and 3.2 turnovers per game. Collier has also gone Over his assist prop in 20 of the 31 games he has started this year. And while he has cooled down a little as a playmaker lately, he has still gone Over this mark in two of his last four games. And overall, I can’t help but think that this will turn into a game in which Boston won’t mind playing an up-and-down style, with less of a focus on grinding things out defensively. The Celtics are essentially locked into the second seed in the Eastern Conference, giving them no real reason to play too hard against a tanking squad. Also, Jaylen Brown, one of the team’s best defenders, is out this evening. That could cause a chain reaction for the entire group, making it easier than normal for Collier to make plays against what is usually a great defensive unit.
Bet: Collier Over 6.5 Assists (-110)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 320-323-3 (-2.33 units)
