The start of the 2024-25 NBA season is officially here. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA features for us twice per week this year. Also, try and listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, November 11th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on November 11th
NBA Best Bets Today – November 11th
Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 pm ET
The Spurs were small favorites to beat the Kings last night, but it changed overnight. Perhaps Sacramento’s win over Phoenix caused some people to change sides. However, that game against the Suns makes me like the Spurs even more. The Kings had to battle back from a late double-digit deficit, using a lot of energy to get some key stops late in the game. Sacramento ultimately won the game in overtime, meaning DeMar DeRozan, Keegan Murray and De’Aaron Fox all played over 40 minutes. And the only reason Domantas Sabonis didn’t is that he fouled out at 39 minutes. On top of that, Sacramento lost Malik Monk to an ankle injury. So, the Kings are legitimately limping into the second night of this back-to-back. Meanwhile, the Spurs had a day off after a bad loss to the Jazz. They’re likely champing at the bit to get out there and get back in the win column.
This matchup should also be pretty favorable for San Antonio. While the same can be said about a lot of teams, Sacramento doesn’t have a great answer for Victor Wembanyama. Murray is a small-ball four and Sabonis is a slow-footed defensive big. So, Wembanyama should have a lot of success scoring over the top of Murray, or blowing by Sabonis. San Antonio also happens to have Devin Vassell back to cook a Sacramento team that isn’t very good defensively along the perimeter. Vassell should also be able to defend DeRozan late in the game. That’s not an easy task for anybody, but he’s a good matchup from a length and speed perspective.
All in all, I just don’t think the Kings, who are ninth in the league in offensive rating (115.2), will have a good offensive night against a Spurs team that is 12th in the league in defensive rating (110.7) — especially after a tough night in Phoenix. And San Antonio, which is 26th in the league in offensive rating (108.0), is due for some positive regression with Vassell back. We should see some of it here against a Sacramento team that won’t be in the top 15 in defensive rating for much longer.
By the way, Sacramento is just 15-17 straight-up on the second night of back-to-backs under Mike Brown. The team is also 22-28 SU when playing six or more games in 10 days. This is a team that struggles without rest, which isn’t a knock considering most teams have that same issue.
Bet: Spurs ML (+112 – 2 units)
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 pm ET
This feels like an odd line. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back for Oklahoma City, but the team lost Chet Holmgren to a serious hip injury. The two-way stud is going to miss roughly two months, meaning the Thunder are now playing without Holmgren and free agent acquisition Isaiah Hartenstein. That leaves Oklahoma City playing with an undersized team. And while the Thunder definitely enjoy playing in space, they are going to really struggle to rebound the basketball and protect the rim. That makes it hard not to like the Clippers to keep this game close.
This Los Angeles team is fourth in the league in defensive rating (107.7) and third in rebound percentage (52.4%). There isn’t a team in the league that plays as hard as the Clippers. So, Ty Lue’s group is going to crash the boards hard and try to make the Thunder really miss having an interior presence. Los Angeles is also one of the few teams in the league with the bodies to throw at some of Oklahoma City’s talented on-ball scorers.
This will ultimately just come down to the play of James Harden and Norm Powell. If those two can play like they normally do offensively, the Clippers aren’t going to get blown out. Of course, that’s not a given considering the Thunder are first in the league in defensive rating (100.3). But I just don’t think Oklahoma City’s defense will look as good as usual without one of the game’s best defensive bigs. According to Cleaning The Glass, the Thunder are in the 98th percentile in points allowed per 100 possessions (98.6) with Holmgren on the floor. When he’s off the floor, they’re in the 92nd percentile (104.6). That difference will matter over the next couple of weeks.
Bet: Clippers +7 (-112 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – November 11th
Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets – 8:00 pm ET
While Alex Sarr is just a rookie, he’s actually tied for third in the NBA in block percentage (9.3%). The 19-year-old is averaging 2.5 blocks per game for Washington, and he has been as advertised as a rim protector to start his career. With that in mind, I like the idea of going Over on Sarr’s block total of 1.5 tonight. The big man has had at least two blocks in seven of the eight games he has played this season, and I’m actually surprised you don’t have to deal with significant juice to take this play.
Not only does Sarr block a lot of shots, but the Rockets take a good amount of shots at the rim. They’re 11th in the NBA in shooting frequency at the basket (34.6%), which makes sense considering how often they play through Alperen Sengun. That said, if Sarr is going to be defending around the basket a lot, he should be able to pick up multiple blocks.
The only thing I’m a little worried about here is foul trouble. Sarr is going to be jumping to try and swat away shots, and Sengun’s pump faking could lead to some fouls. But even if Sarr plays minutes in the low 20s, I’d expect him to block two shots. So, I’m firing away anyway.
Bet: Sarr Over 1.5 Blocks (-128 – 1.5 units)
New Orleans Pelicans at Brooklyn Nets – 8:00 pm ET
With no Dejounte Murray or Zion Williamson, some interesting players are seeing massive minutes for the Pelicans. One of them is Jose Alvarado, who is up from 18.4 minutes per game in 2023-24 to 26.3 minutes per game in 2024-25. Alvarado has also played pretty well on the year, averaging 11.5 points, 4.9 assists and 2.4 rebounds per game. But in the last week, New Orleans has asked even more of the backup point guard.
Alvarado has played at least 34 minutes in each of the last three games. And in all three of those contests, Alvarado went over tonight’s PRA total of 24.5. Alvarado had 25 combined points, rebounds and assists against the Blazers, 34 against the Cavaliers and then another 31 against the Magic. I just don’t see any reason not to play it again with the minutes distribution unlikely to change against the Nets tonight. This is a good matchup for him as an offensive player, and he’s always going to scrap away to try and chip in with rebounds.
Bet: Alvarado Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 – 1.5 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 42-40 (+0.65 units)
