The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of April 28, 2025 and April 29, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Take of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 85-71-3 (54.5%). Here is today’s result: 

  • LAC-DEN UNDER 208.5

Two DK Betting Splits systems, multiple playoff trends/systems, scheduling situation, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Game Four home underdogs of 3.5 points or more are just 10-30 SU and 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+8.5 vs. CLE)

* #2 seeds have also bounced back quickly from losses, 23-3 SU and 20-6 ATS (76.9%) in their last 26.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+4 at GSW) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 58-52 SU and 47-60-3 ATS skid in the last 110 when playing on standard One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+7.5 at IND) 

* Over the total is 8-2-1 in the last 11 of Heat-Cavs head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-MIA (o/u at 211) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 28. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, NEW YORK, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, GOLDEN STATE ML, INDIANA ML, NEW YORK ML, BOSTON ML, LA CLIPPERS ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and a ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-IND, LAC-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and a ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-IND, DET-NYK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CLE-MIA, HOU-GSW, DET-NYK, ORL-BOS
UNDER – LAC-DEN

First Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

• Big favorites have held a significant edge – Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 97-14 SU and 66-45 ATS (59.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-8.5 at MIA), BOSTON (-12 vs. ORL) 

• Bigger road favorites are also a solid bet – Only 12 of the last 61 road favorites of 4.5 points or more have lost outright, going 49-12 SU and 39-21-1 ATS (65%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8.5 at MIA)

• First round home favorites of 4 points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as since 2014, they are just 47-39 SU and 37-48-1 ATS (43.5%).
System Matches (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-4 vs. HOU)

• The last three NBA first round playoffs saw 70 Unders, 58 Overs, 1 Push– (57%). This year, they are 18-11-1 to the Under (62.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL SIX GAMES 

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 81-56-5 (59.1%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 75-66-2 (53.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-IND
UNDER – CLE-MIA, HOU-GSW, DET-NYK, ORL-BOS, LAC-DEN

Last Game Trends

•  Blowout losses carry over – There is a bit of a misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 12 points or more are just 67-124 SU and 80-109-2 ATS (42.3%) in the next contest since 2013. This year, they are 4-6 SU and 7-3 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+8.5 vs. CLE), MILWAUKEE (+7.5 at IND) 

• Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect – Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 41-18 SU and 37-20-2 ATS (64.9%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 25-8 SU and 22-9-2 ATS (71%) surge!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+5.5 at NYK), LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at DEN) 

• Teams that shoot 40% or less from the floor in a first round game have been lousy bets in the next contest, going 55-78-3 ATS (41.4%) since 2014.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+4 at GSW), NEW YORK (-5.5 vs. DET) 

• Beware of teams that shoot the 3pt shot well in one game but still lose. Those that shot 40.0% or better on 3-point shots but still lost have gone just 19-36-1 ATS (34.5%) in the next contest since 2016 in the first round.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+8.5 vs. CLE), MILWAUKEE (+7.5 at IND)

First Round Trends by Game Number

•  Game Four home underdogs of 3.5-points or more are just 10-30 SU and 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+8.5 vs. CLE)

•  Teams down 0-3 in a first round series are just 12-25 SU and 16-20-1 ATS (44.4%) in their last 37 Game Four tries.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+8.5 vs. CLE) 

• Game Fives have belonged to the home teams over the last four non-neutral court playoff seasons. However, they have been close shaves, as these teams are 35-11 SU (just 22-24 ATS – 47.8%) since 2017.
System Matches: PLAY ALL GAME FIVE HOME TEAMS on the ML 

• Non-neutral Game Fives have been defensively focused of late, going 24-16 Under the total (60%) since 2018, with road teams putting up just 104.5 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL GAME FIVES

Trends by Seed Number

• #1 seeds close out series…period. They are 22-3 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) in their last 25 first round playoff closeout tries. This is a big reason they haven’t been pushed to a Game Seven since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8.5 at MIA) 

• #2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk – #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 72-17 SU and 55-34 ATS (61.8%) when favored by 4.5 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-12 vs. ORL) 

• #2 seeds have also bounced back quickly from losses, 23-3 SU and 20-6 ATS (76.9%) in their last 26.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+4 at GSW)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

•  Big road favorites of 5 points or more looking to close out series are money, showing a record of 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) since the start of the 2013 postseason.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8.5 at MIA)

First Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 122-28 SU and 120-30 ATS (80%) run over the last six postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last six first round playoff seasons are 109-20 SU and 106-21-2 ATS (83.5%). 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 94-67 SU and 89-69-3 ATS (56.3%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 62-55 SU and 64-50-3 ATS (56.1%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+8.5 vs. CLE), GOLDEN STATE (-4 vs. HOU), NEW YORK (-5.5 vs. DET), DENVER (+1.5 vs. LAC)

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 47-22 SU and 43-23-3 ATS (65.2%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+1.5 vs. LAC) 

* Under the total was 88-67-1 (56.8%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-DEN (o/u at 208.5) 

* Under the total was 62-26 (70.5%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-MIA (o/u at 211), HOU-GSW (o/u at 202.5), DET-NYK (o/u at 213.5)

* Under the total was 125-77 (61.9%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-MIA (o/u at 211), HOU-GSW (o/u at 202.5), MIL-IND (o/u at 223.5), DET-NYK (o/u at 213.5), LAC-DEN (o/u at 208.5) 

* Under the total is on a 90-41-1 (68.7%) in the last 132 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-MIA (o/u at 211), HOU-GSW (o/u at 202.5), MIL-IND (o/u at 223.5), DET-NYK (o/u at 213.5) 

* Under the total was 84-55 (60.4%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-MIA (o/u at 211), HOU-GSW (o/u at 202.5), DET-NYK (o/u at 213.5), LAC-DEN (o/u at 208.5)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 58-52 SU and 47-60-3 ATS skid in the last 110 when playing on standard One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+7.5 at IND)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, dependent on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 112-90 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 224-175 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 289-226 (56.1%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-BOS (o/u at 199.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 301-233 SU but 239-280-15 ATS (46.1%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-68-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-7.5 vs. MIL)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 100-61 SU and 95-63-3 ATS (60.1%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+7.5 at IND)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY/TOMORROW 

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER +1.5 (+3.2)
2. HOUSTON +4 (+1.1)
3. MIAMI +8.5 (+0.5) 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -5.5 (+2.4)
2. INDIANA -7.5 (+1.5)
3. BOSTON -12 (+0.4) 

Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +4 (+5.5)
2. DENVER +1.5 (+4.2) 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA -7.5 (+1.1)
2(tie). CLEVELAND -8.5 (+1.0)
BOSTON -12 (+1.0) 

Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-DEN OVER 208.5 (+2.0)
2. MIL-IND OVER 223 (+0.5) 

Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-BOS UNDER 199.5 (-1.1)
2. HOU-GSW UNDER 202.5 (-0.9)
3. DET-NYK UNDER 213.5 (-0.7) 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER +1.5 (+4.4)
2. HOUSTON +4 (+1.6)
3. MIAMI +8.5 (+0.6) 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -5.5 (+2.6)
2. INDIANA -7.5 (+1.7)
3. BOSTON -12 (+0.2) 

Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-DEN OVER 208.5 (+3.0)
2. HOU-GSW OVER 202.5 (+2.9)
3. MIL-IND OVER 223 (+0.9) 

Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-MIA UNDER 211 (-1.1)
2. ORL-BOS UNDER 199.5 (-0.7)
3. DET-NYK UNDER 213.5 (-0.4) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of Monday’s and Tuesday’s games:

Monday, April 28, 2025

(579) CLEVELAND at (580) MIAMI
* Over the total is 8-2-1 in the last 11 of MIA-CLE head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(581) HOUSTON at (582) GOLDEN STATE
* Under the total has converted in seven straight head-to-head meetings between HOU and GSW
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

(501) ORLANDO at (502) BOSTON
* Home teams are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the ORL-BOS head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS 

(503) DETROIT at (504) NEW YORK
* DETROIT is 6-2 ATS in the last eight visits to New York
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS 

(505) MILWAUKEE at (506) INDIANA
* Favorites are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine of the MIL-IND head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS 

(507) LA CLIPPERS at (508) DENVER
* Under the total is 12-3-1 in the last 16 of the LAC-DEN head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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