Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 10/23. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Underdogs are on a lengthy 7-11 SU but 16-2 ATS run in the Pistons-Heat series, dating back to 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 vs DET)
* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 318-174 SU but just 204-275-13 ATS (42.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-7.5 vs DAL)
* NBA teams who won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 28-11-1 (71.8%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 40 tries.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-ORL (o/u at 234.5), TOR-WSH (o/u at 235.5), LAC-LAL (o/u at 226.5), POR-SAC (o/u at 232.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are 40 top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* MILWAUKEE is 93-60 Over the total playing at home with One Day Rest since January 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-MIL (o/u at 240.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 93-54 Under the total playing at home with One Day Rest since January 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-CHA (o/u at 226.5)
* NEW YORK is just 8-7 SU and 4-11 ATS (26.7%) vs. the current lowest-scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+2.5 at BOS)
* DETROIT is 21-12 Under the total (63.6%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points since the start of last season
* MIAMI is 75-39 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since March 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DET-MIA (o/u at 235.5)
* WASHINGTON is 70-172 SU and 101-135 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2021
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs TOR)
* DALLAS is just 3-22 SU and 8-17 ATS (32%) vs. winning teams on the road, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): DALLAS (+7.5 at IND)
* UTAH is 111-79 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-UTA (o/u at 239.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 129-126 SU but 108-143 ATS playing in One Day Rest games since January 2022
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 vs MEM)
* LA LAKERS are 100-62 SU and 96-65 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-9.5 vs LAC)
* PORTLAND is 24-14 Over the total (63.2%) in their last 38 games as a favorite
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-SAC (o/u at 232.5)
* SACRAMENTO is 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS (16.7%) at home versus teams currently winning >60% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+9.5 vs POR)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(533) NEW YORK at (534) BOSTON
* Home teams are on a 6-1 SU and ATS surge in the Knicks-Celtics divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-2.5 vs NYK)
(535) ATLANTA at (536) CHARLOTTE
* CHARLOTTE went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS versus Atlanta last year
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+2.5 vs ATL)
(537) DALLAS at (538) INDIANA
* Road teams are 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in the Mavs-Pacers non-conference series since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 at IND)
(539) MINNESOTA at (540) ORLANDO
* Road teams are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the MIN-ORL set since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at ORL)
(541) TORONTO at (542) WASHINGTON
* Home teams are on 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS surge in the Raptors-Wizards series
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs TOR)
(543) DETROIT at (544) MIAMI
* Underdogs are on a lengthy 7-11 SU but 16-2 ATS run in the Pistons-Heat series, dating back to 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 vs DET)
(545) CHICAGO at (546) MILWAUKEE
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Bulls-Bucks divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-MIL (o/u at 240.5)
(547) HOUSTON at (548) SAN ANTONIO
* Home teams are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the Rockets-Spurs divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs HOU)
(549) NEW ORLEANS at (550) UTAH
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven matchups between New Orleans and Utah
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-UTA (o/u at 239.5)
(551) MEMPHIS at (552) GOLDEN STATE
* Over the total is on a 6-0 streak in Grizzlies-Warriors series since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-GSW (o/u at 237.5)
(553) LA CLIPPERS at (554) LA LAKERS
* Home teams are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings between the two Los Angeles franchises
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-9.5 vs LAC)
(555) PORTLAND at (556) SACRAMENTO
* Road teams went 4-0 ATS in the POR-SAC set last season
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-9.5 at SAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 196-77 SU and 156-116-1 ATS (57.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-9.5 vs LAC)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 142-116 SU and 144-111-3 ATS (56.5%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+1.5 at MIL), NEW YORK (+2.5 at BOS), NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at UTA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 101-43 SU and 88-55-1 ATS (61.5%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at UTA)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 107-45 SU and 88-71-3 ATS (55.3%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-2.5 vs NYK)
Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 31-21 Over (59.6%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-MIL (o/u at 240.5)
Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 60-15 SU and 46-29 ATS (61.3%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs HOU)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 318-174 SU but just 204-275-13 ATS (42.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-7.5 vs DAL)
Early season large wins lead to Unders
NBA teams who won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 28-11-1 (71.8%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 40 tries.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-ORL (o/u at 234.5), TOR-WSH (o/u at 235.5), LAC-LAL (o/u at 226.5), POR-SAC (o/u at 232.5)
Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 117-77 SU and 109-82-3 ATS (57.1%) in that follow-up try over the last six seasons.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+2.5 at BOS)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 419-360 (53.8%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-MIL (o/u at 240.5), ATL-CHA (o/u at 226.5), MIN-ORL (o/u at 234.5), TOR-WSH (o/u at 235.5), NOP-UTA (o/u at 240.5)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 212-223 SU and 204-221-10 ATS (48%) in that next contest over the last eight seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at ORL)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 191-131 SU and 180-135-7 ATS (57.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-8.5 at WSH)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 102-75 SU and 104-72-1 ATS (59.1%) in their last 177 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+1.5 at MIL), CHARLOTTE (+2.5 vs ATL), ORLANDO (+1.5 vs MIN)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home teams playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 234-201 ATS (53.8%) over the last four seasons, good for +12.9 units of profit and a ROI of 3%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs CHI)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 972-886 ATS (52.3%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -2.6 units and a ROI of about dead even. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (+2.5 at BOS), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at ORL), TORONTO (-8.5 at WSH), ATLANTA (-2.5 at CHA), DETROIT (-1.5 at MIA), NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at UTA), PORTLAND (-9.5 at SAC)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 563-504 ATS record (52.7%), good for +8.6 units of profit and an ROI of 0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 vs MEM), SACRAMENTO (+9.5 vs POR)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 552-483 ATS (53.3%). This simple angle has produced +20.7 units of profit and an ROI of +2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (-7.5 vs DAL), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at ORL)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 673-588 ATS record, good for 53.4%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +26.2 units of profit and an ROI of +2.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-8.5 at WSH), DETROIT (-1.5 at MIA), NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at UTA), GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 vs MEM), PORTLAND (-9.5 at SAC)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 201-218 ATS, good for 47.9%. This is almost a 3% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -38.8 units of loss and a ROI of -9.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-2.5 at CHA), LA LAKERS (-9.5 vs LAC)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 547-454, good for 54.6%, +47.6 units, and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-MIL (o/u at 240.5), NOP-UTA (o/u at 240.5), MEM-GSW (o/u at 237.5)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 221-167 (57%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +37.3 units of profit for +9.6%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-MIL (o/u at 240.5), MEM-GSW (o/u at 237.5)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially, the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 351-274 (56.2%) since January ’23. This recently discovered angle has produced +49.6 units of profit for +7.9%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-IND (o/u at 240.5)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +1.5 (+5.2)
2. WASHINGTON +8.5 (+4.3)
3. MEMPHIS +4.5 (+4.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -9.5 (+1.7)
2. MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+0.9)
3. INDIANA -7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +4.5 (+8.7)
2. WASHINGTON +8.5 (+5.2)
3. NEW YORK +2.5 (+4.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: LA LAKERS -9.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-MIA OVER 235.5 (+2.0)
2. HOU-SAS OVER 225.5 (+1.9)
3. NOP-UTA OVER 239.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-GSW UNDER 237.5 (-4.2)
2. DAL-IND UNDER 240.5 (-1.7)
3. CHI-MIL UNDER 240.5 (-1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +1.5 (+5.8)
2(tie). WASHINGTON +8.5 (+5.3)
MEMPHIS +4.5 (+5.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+3.1)
2. LA LAKERS -9.5 (+2.5)
3. INDIANA -7.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-UTA OVER 239.5 (+3.9)
2. ATL-CHA OVER 226.5 (+3.8)
3. DAL-IND OVER 240.5 (+2.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-ORL UNDER 234.5 (-3.3)
2. TOR-WSH UNDER 236.5 (-2.3)
3. MEM-GSW UNDER 237.5 (-1.9)
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