The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA play-in games on Friday, April 17, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams that have lost the initial #7-#8 play-in matchups have gone 5-1 SU and ATS against the #9-#10 winners in their second attempts to land a playoff spot.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO (+3.5 vs CHA), PHOENIX (-3.5 vs GSW)

* Under the total is 7-1-1 in the last nine of the Hornets-Magic series at the Kia Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-ORL (o/u at 218.5)

NBA Play-In Notes

–   Home favorites of -5.5 points or fewer have gone just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in the last seven instances
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-3.5 vs GSW)

–  #8 seeded teams have been the most successful play-in teams from a betting perspective, going 7-6 SU and 10-3 ATS in 13 prior games
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+3.5 vs CHA)

–  #9 seeded teams have been the least successful teams in play-in action, 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in ten games
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-3.5 at ORL)

– Teams that have lost the initial #7-#8 matchups have gone 5-1 SU and ATS against the #9-#10 winners in their second attempts to land a playoff spot.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO (+3.5 vs CHA), PHOENIX (-3.5 vs GSW)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* CHARLOTTE is 6-20 SU and 8-18 ATS playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario since April 2022
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-3.5 at ORL)

* ORLANDO is 125-100 Under the total playing in ALL One Day Rest games since March 2022
* NBA teams playing at home in a One Day Rest scenario are 93-48 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-ORL (o/u at 218.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 233-301 SU but 293-233-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 at PHX)

* GOLDEN STATE is 140-110 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
* NBA teams playing at home in a 2 Days Rest scenario were 59-38 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-PHX (o/u at 219.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(573) CHARLOTTE at (574) ORLANDO
* Under the total is 7-1-1 in the last nine of the Hornets-Magic series at the Kia Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-ORL (o/u at 218.5)
* CHARLOTTE has won and covered the last three matchups with divisional rival Orlando
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-3.5 at ORL)

(575) GOLDEN STATE at (576) PHOENIX
* Road teams are 5-2 ATS in the last seven of the Warriors-Suns divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 at PHX)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 318-173 SU but just 204-274-13 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-3.5 at ORL)

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 101-70 SU and 103-67-1 ATS (60.6%) in their last 171 tries.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 at PHX)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-2026, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will again be very significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +3.5 (+3.6)
2. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+0.5)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +3.5 (+3.4)
2. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+0.7)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CHA-ORL OVER 218.5 (+2.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: GSW-PHX UNDER 219.5 (-2.2)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: ORLANDO +3.5 (+2.5)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHOENIX -3.5 (+0.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CHA-ORL OVER 218.5 (+2.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: GSW-PHX UNDER 219.5 (-1.1)

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