The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, April 17, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Taijuan Walker is 6-21 (-15.18 units) at night against teams with a >=55% win pct in the last 5+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-108 vs ATL)

* In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 214-246 SU but for +44.91 units (ROI: 9.8%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+135 at CHC)

* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 141-142 (-59.01 units, ROI: -20.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+104 at PIT)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 35-19 start for +7.11 units and an ROI of +13.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+113 at CLE), SAN FRANCISCO (-156 at WSH)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in ‘25. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 0-2 for -2.13 units and an ROI of -106.5%.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-175 vs CIN), LA ANGELS (-136 vs SD)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 6-11 for -6.41 units and an ROI of -37.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-115 vs MIL), CINCINNATI (+144 at MIN), SAN DIEGO (+113 at LAA)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, after a great last week, these teams are off to a 40-25 start for +1.50 units and an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-126 vs DET), LA DODGERS (-314 at COL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 20-24 for +7.35 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-143 vs STL)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 16-9 but for -6.55 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-314 at COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a solid start, 32-32 for +4.13 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+113 at CLE), MILWAUKEE (-105 at MIA), DETROIT (+104 at BOS), CINCINNATI (+144 at MIN), SAN DIEGO (+113 at LAA), TORONTO (+113 at AZ)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 20-23 start for +0.44 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 5-14 for -8.54 units and an ROI of -44.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ST LOUIS (+119 at HOU), ARIZONA (-136 vs TOR)
3+ games – TAMPA BAY (+104 at PIT)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 16-15 for +4.67 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (+135 at CHC), KANSAS CITY (+153 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at ATH)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 12-15 for -9.30 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+113 at CLE), SEATTLE (-131 vs TEX)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 444-361 for +27.45 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the ’22 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+104 at PIT), DETROIT (+104 at BOS), LA DODGERS (-308 at COL), SAN DIEGO (+113 at LAA)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 214-162 for +16.37 units and an ROI of 4.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-112 at PHI)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 136-172 for -33.23 units and an ROI of -10.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-108 vs ATL)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 374-319 but for -78.70 units and an ROI of -11.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-163 vs NYM), MIAMI (-112 vs MIL), BOSTON (-126 vs DET), LA ANGELS (-136 vs SD), SEATTLE (-131 vs TEX), ARIZONA (-136 vs TOR)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 402-346 record for +53.33 units and an ROI of 7.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-112 at PHI), DETROIT (+104 at BOS), LA DODGERS (-308 at COL), TEXAS (+109 at SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2008-1901 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -264.78 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, KANSAS CITY, DETROIT, LA ANGELS, TEXAS

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2014-2571 (43.9%) for -257.02 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, TORONTO, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4071-3535 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -509.54 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON, PITTSBURGH, LA ANGELS, A’THLETICS, ARIZONA

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 605-499 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +31.33 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-131 vs TEX)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 84-128 SU (-23.25 units, ROI: -11%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+104 at BOS), TEXAS (+109 at SEA)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 181-212 SU record for +41.61 units and an ROI of 10.6% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-108 vs ATL)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 69-41 SU for +12.90 units (ROI: 11.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-156 at WSH)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 214-246 SU but for +44.91 units (ROI: 9.8%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+135 at CHC)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 466-526 SU but for +74.05 units (ROI: 7.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+135 at CHC), BALTIMORE (+113 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (+153 at NYY), CINCINNATI (+144 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at ATH), TORONTO (+113 at AZ)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 38-98 skid (-36.97 units, ROI -27.2%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-22 (+9.01 units, ROI: 22.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 94-174 (-58.96 units, ROI: -22%) since the start of the 2021 season.
Systems Match (FADE): NY METS (+135 at CHC)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5-games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 182-147 (+13.67 units, ROI: 4.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+104 at BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 238-157 in their last 395 tries (+35.36 units, ROI: 9%).
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+104 at BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 141-142 (-59.01 units, ROI: -20.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+104 at PIT)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +248 (+56 diff), CINCINNATI +144 (+16)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIAMI -115 (+17 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-COL OVER 9 (+0.9), DET-BOS OVER 7.5 (+0.7), SD-LAA OVER 8 (+0.7), TEX-SEA OVER 6.5 (+0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(903) ATLANTA (12-7) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (8-10)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 6-21 (-15.18 units) at night against teams with a >=55% win pct in the last 5+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-108 vs ATL)

(909) LOS ANGELES-NL (14-4) at (910) COLORADO (7-12)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 46-14 (+13.34 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-314 at COL)

(911) BALTIMORE (9-10) at (912) CLEVELAND (11-9)
Trend: Chris Bassitt has a 19-10 (+2.91 units) record vs AL Central opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+113 at CLE)

(913) KANSAS CITY (7-12) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (10-9)
Trend: KC is 3-10 (-5.10 units) as a +125 or more road underdog with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+153 at NYY)

(917) CHICAGO-AL (6-13) at (918) ATHLETICS (10-9)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 23-9 (+8.70 units) against teams with a < 43% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: Aaron Civale is 20-9 (+3.52 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-163 vs CWS)

(919) TEXAS (10-9) at (920) SEATTLE (8-12)
Trend: TEX is 5-11 (-7.73 units) in the last 16 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+109 at SEA)

(921) TAMPA BAY (11-7) at (922) PITTSBURGH (11-8)
Trend: Nick Martinez is 3-9 (-4.84 units) as a road underdog vs NL opponents since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+104 at PIT)

Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Fri 4/17-Sun 4/19
Trend: DETROIT is 8-15 (34.8%, -6.12 units) in the last 23 games vs. Boston
– The ROI on this trend is -26.6%
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+104 at BOS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): CINCINNATI

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, BOSTON, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, MIAMI, BOSTON, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, ATHLETICS, SEATTLE, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-COL

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB Betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

ATHLETICS     
Letdown after series vs. TEXAS: 16-20 (44.4%) -4.47 units, ROI: -12.4%    
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-163 vs CWS)

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