Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff games on 5/18 and 5/19. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Ten of the last 12 conference finals Game Ones have gone Over the total (83.3%), producing 233.7 PPG, surpassing posted totals by almost 18 PPG!
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 83-112-1 ATS (42.6%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs SAS)
NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 88-49 SU and 84-51-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
System/Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs CLE)
NBA Conference Finals Trends/Systems
Trends by Line Range
Big favorites are slowing – From 2013-2018 in the NBA playoffs, conference finals favorites of 5 points or more were 35-6 SU and 28-13 ATS. Since then, they are just 22-14 SU and 14-21-1 ATS (40%).
High totals have meant Unders – Of the 28 games in the last 10 conference finals seasons with totals of 221 or higher, 19 of them have gone Under the total (67.8%).
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-OKC (o/u at 221.5)
Trends by Game Number
Conference finals series opening games have been tough on home teams of late – Home teams hold a 12-8 SU edge, but they are 8-12 ATS (40%) in conference finals Game Ones since 2015.
The last 10 conference finals Game Ones have been offensive explosions – Ten of the last 12 conference finals Game Ones have gone OVER the total (83.3%), producing 233.7 PPG, surpassing posted totals by almost 18 PPG!
Trends by Seed Number
Lay the wood with #1 seeds – Top-seeded teams have been stellar at covering big point spreads, going 31-3 SU and 21-13 ATS (61.8%) in the conference finals when favored by 6.5 points or more.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs SAS)
#2 seeds are tempting as large dogs, but they have struggled – #2 seeded teams are on a slide of 3-19 SU and 6-16 ATS as underdogs of 5-points or more in the conference finals series over the last 11 years.
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+6.5 at OKC)
#3/4 seeds are solid in the big favorite role – Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds are on a 13-9 SU and ATS (59.1%) run as favorites of 3.5 points or more.
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs CLE)
#3/4 seeds in any other line scenario have floundered of late – Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds when not favored by 3.5 points or more have struggled terribly of late, going 11-29 SU and 14-24-2 ATS (36.8%) since 2016. Similarly, they are just 12-19 ATS (38.7%) in their last 31 road conference finals games.
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+7.5 at NYK)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 30-52 SU and 30-49-3 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last four seasons
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+6.5 at OKC)
* NBA teams playing in 2 Days Rest scenario were 56-36 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-OKC (o/u at 221.5)
* CLEVELAND is just 27-28 SU and 19-36 ATS (34.5%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 88-49 SU and 84-51-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
System/Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs CLE)
* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 196-145 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-NYK (o/u at 216.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for the games:
Monday, May 18, 2026
(543) SAN ANTONIO at (544) OKLAHOMA CITY
* SAN ANTONIO is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups with OKC
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+6.5 at OKC)
* Under the total has converted in the last five of the series at Oklahoma City as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-OKC (o/u at 221.5)
Tuesday, May 19, 2026
(545) CLEVELAND at (546) NEW YORK
* CLEVELAND is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in meetings with New York since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+7.5 at NYK)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 193-73 SU and 153-112-1 ATS (57.7%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs SAS), NEW YORK (-7.5 vs CLE)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Large wins also lead to Unders in the playoffs
In the playoffs, NBA teams off a 30-point win have had their next game totals go Under at a 31-17-1 (64.6%) rate in the last five seasons (games also include if the previous game was in regular season).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-OKC (o/u at 221.5), CLE-NYK (o/u at 216.5)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 357-270 SU but 292-320-15 ATS (47.7%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs CLE)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 418-359 (53.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-NYK (o/u at 216.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 365-369 SU and 334-392-8 ATS (46%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs CLE)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 190-129 SU and 179-133-7 ATS (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+7.5 at NYK)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 341-391-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs SAS), NEW YORK (-7.5 vs CLE)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 83-112-1 ATS (42.6%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs SAS)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 1:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO ML, NEW YORK ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – CLE-NYK
NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +7.5 (+1.5)
2. SAN ANTONIO +6.5 (+1.2)
UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND +7.5 (+0.6)
TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAS-OKC UNDER 221.5 (-2.9)
UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND +7.5 (+2.9)
UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+0.1)
TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-NYK UNDER 216.5 (-1.8)
2. SAS-OKC UNDER 221.5 (-1.2)
