Knicks vs. Cavaliers Eastern Conference Finals Series Preview
The 2025-26 Eastern Conference Finals will feature the New York Knicks taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers for a spot in the NBA Finals. This was expected to be the matchup heading into the regular season, but the Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons changed some minds. Plus, the Cavaliers didn’t help with their up-and-down play. But here we are. New York, a team that hasn’t lost a game since April 23, is favored to win off a sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers, while Cleveland isn’t looking quite as hot after needing seven games to beat Detroit. That said, are the Knicks heading to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999? We’ll dive into that below. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Series Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, May 18 at 2:30 pm ET)
Series Winner: Knicks -265, Cavaliers +215
Series Spread: Knicks -1.5 Games (-120), Cavaliers +1.5 Games (+100)
Series Total: Over 5.5 Games (-150), Under 5.5 Games (+125)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Series Prediction
The Knicks went 2-1 against the Cavaliers during the regular season, but the one loss was on February 24. That was a 15-point win for a Cleveland team that had just acquired James Harden. Considering the Knicks haven’t beaten this new version of the Cavaliers, I’m tempted to throw away the head-to-heads with these teams completely. New York also feels like an entirely different group right now, with the team surging on both ends of the floor — and running a ton of offense through Karl-Anthony Towns. So, let’s focus strictly on the way these teams match up today.
There’s a lot to like about Cleveland when looking at this series. There’s undoubtedly a huge early edge to New York here, with the Knicks having had a full week off while the Cavaliers went to war in a seven-game series with the Pistons. But as long as Cleveland’s legs aren’t completely shot, the Cavaliers will be able to do some things to bother these Knicks.
Defensively, Cleveland has a lot to throw at New York. Towns, who has been excellent in these playoffs, will have to deal with a mobile big man covering him away from the basket, with Evan Mobley moving his feet as well as any non-Victor Wembanyama big in basketball. Of course, Towns has dealt with defenders that slide their feet well in the past, but the Cavaliers are different in that they always have two rim protectors on the floor. So, even if Towns does get a step on Mobley, he’ll then be met by Jarrett Allen at the rim. That could neutralize a lot of what he wants to do as a scorer.
The Cavaliers are also going to feel pretty good about throwing Dean Wade on Jalen Brunson. That might sound ridiculous, but he’s a very good perimeter defender. Wade moves his feet well, he contests without fouling, and he knows when to funnel his man into the big guys behind him. In fact, in looking at the NBA’s tracking data, Brunson went just 1 for 15 from the floor when guarded by Wade in three games this season. That doesn’t mean Brunson is about to shoot 6% from the field in the series. But it does show you that Wade can make him work, and doing that also means tiring him out.
There’s also a decent chance James Harden doesn’t look awful as a defender in this series. Will he inevitably get stuck on Brunson, leading to some serious “barbecue chicken alerts?” Absolutely. But for the most part, Cleveland can throw Harden on guys like Josh Hart and OG Anunoby, who aren’t going to cook him in isolation. Similarly, Donovan Mitchell can spend time guarding Hart or Mikal Bridges, and those guys shouldn’t be able to torch him.
Considering all of that, the Cavaliers should be in good shape in this series as long as they continue humming offensively. That might be difficult against a Knicks team that is clicking on that end of the floor, but will it be any worse for Cleveland than it was against Toronto or Detroit? I’d argue both of those teams are better than New York defensively. For as good as the numbers look for the Knicks, they do have Brunson and Towns, two of the league’s worst defenders at their respective positions, on the floor together a lot. Allowing Harden, one of the game’s best pick-and-roll maestros, to attack that pairing will be something to watch. Mitchell should also have a lot of success hunting matchups here.
This could ultimately come down to how Mobley looks offensively. Mobley’s aggressiveness comes and goes, but he averaged 17.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game in the final five games of the Pistons series. He also shot 36.1% from deep. When he’s thriving as a scorer, making plays as an offensive hub, and doing his usual good work on the defensive end, he’s one of the best bigs in the NBA. I say that to say that there’s a real chance he holds his own in the Towns matchup, and doing so would give Cleveland a chance of advancing. I’m actually sprinkling a little on Mobley to win Eastern Conference Finals MVP at 40-1.
All in all, as a Cavaliers believer in this series, I was tempted to go with Cleveland +2.5 on the game spread at -190. However, I ultimately landed on the Over on 5.5 in the game total at -140 odds. While I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of the Cavaliers winning in five or fewer games, it is pretty unlikely. That would require Cleveland winning two out of three games in New York, and it’d also require a night-by-night focus we haven’t seen from this team so far. It just seems unrealistic for a Cavaliers group that had struggled mightily on the road until Game 5 of the series against the Pistons. So, I’m simply hoping for six games. But if you’re looking strictly for a side, I’d say to back Cleveland on the game spread and sprinkle the series moneyline. The only reason I’m not doing the latter is that I already have the Cavaliers to win the East at +650.
Bet: Over 5.5 Games (-140) & Mobley To Win Eastern Conference Finals MVP (40-1 – 0.1 units)
