The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, January 16, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, LA CLIPPERS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following system shows some success that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER

A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement.  Again, it is quite rare, though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): OKC-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): SAC-PHX

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 39-33 SU and 37-34-1 ATS (52.1%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/16: PHILADELPHIA vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-3 vs DEN)

* Under the total was 38-33 (53.5%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/16: Under the total in DENVER-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 228.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM-SPECIFIC SCHEDULING TRENDS TODAY

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 113-29 SU and 94-48 ATS (66.2%) run.
System Matches: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 vs OKC)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 212-214 SU and 183-233-10 ATS (44%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE SACRAMENTO (+4 at PHX)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 186-205 SU and 169-220-2 ATS (43.4%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE DENVER (+3 at PHI)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 121-43 SU and 93-69-2 ATS (57.4%).
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-4 vs SAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY +6.5 (+2.4), 2. SACRAMENTO +4 (+0.5)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -3 (+0.8)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY +6.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -3 (+1.5), 2. PHOENIX -4 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-LAC OVER 235.5 (+1.0), 2. DEN-PHI OVER 228.5 (+0.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-PHX UNDER 243.5 (-1.8)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY +6.5 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -3 (+3.1), 2. PHOENIX -4 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-LAC OVER 235.5 (+4.0), 2. DEN-PHI OVER 228.5 (+3.2), 3. SAC-PHX OVER 243.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(569) DENVER at (570) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is on a 9-3-1 ATS run in head-to-head series vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(571) SACRAMENTO at (572) PHOENIX
* SACRAMENTO is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games at Phoenix
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(573) OKLAHOMA CITY at (574) LA CLIPPERS
* Home teams are on a 7-2 ATS run in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

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