Academy Award Nominations:
After a year of sequels and surprises, we have our field for the 97th Academy Awards. It truly is one of the most unpredictable years for the Academy Awards. These are my first reactions to the Academy Award nominations for the big six awards. Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress and Best Director.
Best Picture
In one of the most competitive years in recent memory, there are a lot of angles to look at when breaking down this year’s Best Picture race. The top contenders this year are: The Brutalist (-165), Emilia Perez (+300), Anora (+500), Conclave (+600) and Wicked (16/1). For much of the year, Anora has been the favorite. But, after it was blanked at the Golden Globes, combined with the late wave of support for Emilia Perez and The Brutalist, the odds market shifted with The Brutalist becoming the odds-on favorite. I don’t think it should be odds-on, but judging from the general sentiment and its win at the Golden Globes for Best Motion Picture – Drama that puts it in the drivers seat.
Best Picture Nominees and Betting Odds
- The Brutalist -130
- Emilia Perez +300
- Anora +500
- Conclave +600
- Wicked 16/1
- A Complete Unknown 16/1
- The Substance 20/1
- Dune Part 2 25/1
- The Nickel Boys 35/1
- I’m Still Here 50/1
My Bet
I still like Anora to take home Best Picture and previously wrote about it. It has racked up the most wins in many regional critics awards, in addition to its debut in Cannes, where it took home the Palme d’Or. Even though it took a blow at the Globes, I believe Anora will fare much better with Academy voters. Its depiction of class struggle between the rich and the poor and men and women will speak to voters who want to feel like they are saying something about the time we are living in.
The Favorites
The Brutalist is, in one word, an epic. Similar to Oppenheimer it has an extensive runtime clocking in at 3 hours & 35 minutes. As we saw with Oppenheimer this isn’t a deterrent but looking at another 3-hour film from last year, Killers of the Flower Moon, it doesn’t guarantee recognition. I think this film falls somewhere in the middle in terms of Oscar success. The strengths of this film lay in its performances and massive scope. I love epics, but some might view this as an old-school choice for a voting body that has become younger and more international. If it’s able to win at the Critics Choice Awards, that might be another indicator of how The Brutalist may fare in March.
The other elephant in the room is the very controversial Emilia Perez. I will be the first person to tell you this was probably my least favorite movie of 2024. And over the last six months, I’ve tried to find someone else who likes this film and still haven’t. But it keeps winning and racking up awards. I have zero explanation. After its win at the Globes, it really is a movie to be reckoned with this year. But, in a category where they use ranked voting, a movie as divisive as Perez can sometimes suffer.
Wild Cards
There are a few wild cards that I’d like to highlight – Conclave and Wicked. These two films have made an impact in the awards race, but haven’t gained the same level of hardware as the films listed above.
Conclave is the safe pick that the Academy could make and, in a ranked voting system, movies that can consistently be the third and fourth pick and win the Oscars. With a dynamite cast of veteran actors like Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci and John Lithgow this film is something that older Academy voters may lean to.
Wicked is easily the biggest film of 2024. With its high expectations and nonstop marketing campaign, it soared at the box office and even topped some end-of-year lists like the National Board of Review. But does that warrant a win? For a while, many prognosticators had Wicked winning this award. I don’t think that will happen. The heat around this movie has calmed down and, while I believe it will garner many nominations, I don’t see it winning the big award.
Best Actor
This year is a really fun race in Best Actor. It essentially is a three-horse race between Adrian Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). All are deserving, but it becomes a combination of who has won enough to this point and who had the momentum at the homestretch.
Best Actor Nominees and Betting Odds
- Adrien Brody -175
- Timothee Chalamet +150
- Ralph Fiennes +650
- Colman Domingo 12/1
- Sebastian Stan 20/1
My Bet
Chalamet has skyrocketed up the odds board and is the second favorite behind Brody. Chalamet played the Oscar playbook to perfection. He played an American Icon in Bob Dylan, taught himself how to sing and play the guitar over five years to play the music legend and ran one of the best marketing campaigns in recent memory. Many of you might have seen him on College Gameday a few weeks back. He has the added benefit of starring in Dune Part 2, which helped establish him as a bona fide movie star. I got him back when he was +300, but you should be able to grab him at a plus-money price.
The Favorites
Brody was fantastic in The Brutalist, playing a Holocaust survivor who makes his way to America to achieve the American Dream as an architect. With one Oscar under his belt already, and a win at the Golden Globes, I think he deserves to be in the top spot, but it’s not as solidified as many may think.
Fiennes takes on the whole weight of Conclave and succeeds in traversing the world of the College of Cardinals during the election of a new Pope. He delivers a controlled, but focused performance. He has been twice nominated for an Oscar, but still has never won. He certainly fits the “due” factor, but as of late, the Academy doesn’t really care like they used to in the 70s and 90s. Just ask Glenn Close (nominated eight times and no wins.)
Wild Cards
A few wild cards to look out for but I don’t think they will contend. Domingo and Stan will most likely fill out the category. Domingo was in Sing Sing that had a very confusing roll out from A24. He was the favorite at the start of award season and has faded to the back of the pack.
Best Actress
In the last few years this has become the most competitive of the major categories and that isn’t going to change this year. I will focus on the two main contenders this year.
Best Actress Nominees and Betting Odds
- Demi Moore -140
- Mikey Madison +125
- Karla Sofia Gascon 12/1
- Cynthia Erivo 14/1
- Fernanda Torres 25/1
Demi Moore vs. Mikey Madison
This looked like a runaway race for Mikey Madison but that all changed on Globes night. Moore has launched herself into the awards conversation and is now the odds on favorite. It’s still a close race with Moore (-140) and Madison (+125). I can see this being a dogfight all the way up until Oscar Night.
My Bet
I held off betting on Madison, but now that I can get her at (+125) and maybe hold off until just before the Critics Choice Awards, I’ll fire on it. She is in almost every scene of Anora and displays a complete range of a world-class actor. She plays a challenging role as a stripper who knows how to work her mark. She perfectly shoulders the film and displays her sexuality, comedic prowess and, most importantly, her emotional depth. It’s more than deserving of a Best Actress win and is who I have currently winning this year.
The Favorite
Moore certainly has the best storyline. The Hollywood “It” girl in the 90’s who took the silver screen by storm. But in recent years has been regulated to mostly supporting roles. In The Substance, she takes a huge chance on a graphic body horror film depicting the physical and emotional toll aging can have on women. The only problem I have with her performance is she splits much of her time with her co-star Margaret Qualley. Moore is fantastic, but I think in a race this close, I have to give it to the actor who shoulders the entire responsibility of the film like Madison does in Anora.
Best Supporting Actor
This seems to be the runaway category of the year and I don’t understand why. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has snatched up many of the regional critics awards and solidified his position at the Golden Globes. The only other real contender is Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who I think turned in a career performance. Sometimes markets like this are like a horse that gets out of the barn. Everyone sort of just follows the leader and once he’s out there’s no catching him.
Best Supporting Actor Nominees and Betting Odds
- Kieran Culkin -900
- Guy Pearce +900
- Yura Borisov 10/1
- Edward Norton 14/1
- Jeremy Strong 16/1
Best Supporting Actress
This is another race where two actresses are highlighting the field. Between Zoe Saldana and Ariana Grande I think this is a little closer than oddsmakers have it. I think the critics choice awards might even the field by giving the nod to Ariana Grande but if that doesn’t happen this could be a runway for Saldana.
Best Supporting Actress Nominees and Betting Odds
- Zoe Saldana -700
- Ariana Grande +500
- Felicity Jones 12/1
- Monica Barbaro 20/1
- Isabella Rossellini 20/1
Saldana (Emilia Perez) is the current favorite and, after her win at the Globes and many of the regional critics awards, she is firmly in the top spot. She certainly is the best part of that film and is the only one who deserves any awards consideration from this film frankly.
The case for Grande starts and ends with being cast in the perfect role. She plays the bubbly Glinda in Wicked that matches her comedic verve and angelic voice that really helps her stand out. She brings life into every scene she’s in and in a role that, to me, is very much supporting in the original musical makes her an equal with Elphaba. She does lack the meaningful award wins throughout the season which could hinder her chances come March 2nd.
Best Director
This race seems to have widened but I’d like to wait and see if Sean Baker can make a late push. This seemed like his award to lose but as The Brutalist has gained steam and Brady Corbet seems to have a good seat for now.
Best Director Nominees and Betting Odds
- Brady Corbet -500
- Sean Baker +450
- Jaques Audiard +800
- Coralie Fargeat 20/1
- James Mangold 20/1
My Bet
First of all I’m extremely disappointed that Denis Villeneuve has gotten no recognition for Dune Part 2, which I believe is the best movie of the year. Now that I’ve said my piece I would only look to bet Baker at the moment, but I need to see at least one more major award handed out to fire on anything. I really loved Anora and think it’s exactly how I would want a movie made about Vegas. He took home a lot of hardware at the beginning of award season but as The Brutalist was seen more, Corbet started to make a run.
The Favorite
With the massive undertaking that was The Brutalist it is easy to see why Corbet is receiving such acclaim. Yes, the movie is long, but the Academy loves a good epic and one that tells the immigrant story is a plus. I also am a sucker for that so I would be happy with either Corbet or Baker here. With his win at the Golden Globes, it really launched him into the leader’s spot and, unless he trips up at the Directors Guild or the BAFTAs, I think he’s in a good position to take home his first Academy Award.
Conclusion
This year will be one of the most fun years to follow the Academy Awards with so much undecided, but I recommend you bet early and before many of the major guild awards like the Producers Guild, Directors Guild and SAG Awards (Actors Guild). These are major events along with the Critics Choice and BAFTAs where you’ll see odds come down and odds move based on their outcomes.
It may not feel like it but we are in the home stretch of award season and, just like the NFL, you find the best value at the beginning of the season and you have to start locking in your futures before the “playoffs”. And right now, the regular season is wrapping up and the playoffs are right around the corner.
