2025 NFL Survivor Pools

When all 272 games for the 2025 NFL season were officially announced in mid-May, my mind immediately went to the Circa Survivor contest. There is no such thing as a lock in sports betting, so there is risk attached to every single pick, including the biggest favorite or the logical choice in the context of Survivor. But, there are outcomes that are more likely to happen than others.

While the goal in Survivor is to go 1-0 every week, the ultimate goal is to go 20-0, as Circa Survivor has the two large wrinkles of Thanksgiving/Black Friday and Christmas as their own “weeks”. The premise behind a Survivor contest is easy, right? Just pick a team to win their game. But, the execution is the hard part because being able to use each team only once means having a plan of attack for the entirety of the season.

I’ve written this with the Circa Survivor in mind, so there are 20 weeks. But, you can still see the options if you are in a more traditional pool with the normal 18-week schedule.

The NFL is very fluid, especially when it comes to injuries, so even the best-laid plans can go awry, not only in the days leading up to the game, but during the game itself. Nevertheless, it is an interesting exercise to plot out a course. My partner Marc Goldberg and I made it to the final 13 during the 2023 installment of Circa Survivor and that’s exactly what we did before the season, keeping one main thing in mind – save as many teams as you can for the holiday games.

The Thanksgiving slate has the Packers, Lions, Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals, Ravens, Bears, and Eagles, while the Christmas slate has the Cowboys, Commanders, Lions, Vikings, Broncos, and Chiefs. The three common teams are the Cowboys, Lions, and Chiefs, so that adds an extra dimension of planning.

Before looking at a week-by-week gameplan, let’s talk about the Survivor teams to pick on this season.

Note: If you do not reside in Nevada, you need to sign-up in person and use a proxy service to enter the picks. We recommend our partners, Winners Circle Proxy Service.

NFL Survivor Teams to Pick On

Like I said, plans don’t always work out and 25 of the 32 teams were plus or minus 1.5 games off of their season win total odds last season and 21 of those teams were plus or minus 2.5 games or more. So, there will be surprises, but what generally isn’t all that surprising is that the bad teams are typically bad.

Cleveland Browns: At time of writing, the Browns were +400 at DraftKings for the fewest wins. Whether Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, or Shedeur Sanders start games, the Browns certainly look like one of the league’s bottom-feeders and could be a very valuable team to pick against, especially if they start really poorly and Kevin Stefanski’s seat gets hot as the organization looks for a scapegoat.

New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough? Spencer Rattler? Jake Haener? Are any of these quarterbacks going to worry you? Will any of them have the ability to win a game in the second half or fourth quarter? They’ll probably be an underdog in at least 15 of their 17 games and were +400 for fewest wins.

New York Giants: Russell Wilson and the Giants may be catching points in all 17 games and absolutely need a QB of the future in the 2026 NFL Draft. Given the brutal start to the schedule, this is a team likely to be demoralized early and often.

Tennessee Titans: No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward could inject some immediate life into the Titans, but it could also be Will Levis at the start. While there are some talented individual players, this was a 3-14 team last season that still needs a lot of work.

NFL Survivor Weekly Picks

Week 1

Broncos (-7.5) vs. Titans

Whether this game is started by Cam Ward or Will Levis, drawing what could very well be the league’s top defense in Week 1 is a tough task. Furthermore, this is a Week 1 game in elevation, so there will be a lot of players attempting to get into game shape. There are other spots to take the Broncos, but I think going against a rookie QB or Levis in the first week is the best of them.

One quick note: Theoretically, if you don’t max out your entries, you can take the Eagles on Thursday and rebuy if they don’t win, but the Eagles are also a holiday team.

Considerations: Eagles (-7) vs. Cowboys (TNF); Patriots (-3) vs. Raiders; Commanders (-7) vs. Giants

Used: Broncos

Week 2

Cardinals (-4.5) over Panthers

The Cardinals are not the biggest favorite in Week 2. Far from it, in fact. However, this is Carolina’s second consecutive road game and a long trip out to the desert. Arizona is a team that I am very high on heading into Jonathan Gannon’s third season and I also feel like the Panthers are a good team to catch early in the year in case they struggle to find a rhythm coming out of the preseason.

Considerations: Bengals (-5.5) over Jaguars; Cowboys (-4.5) over Giants; Ravens (-12.5) over Browns; 49ers (-7) over Saints

Used: Broncos, Cardinals

Week 3

Seahawks (-6.5) over Saints

This might not be a rookie QB in his first road start, depending on how everything shakes out with the New Orleans position battle, but it is still the first road game for the Saints and it is a long way from home against a Seahawks squad that is stacked at the skill positions. This is a big test for Kellen Moore and the staff and a great spot to use the Seahawks on a week with fairly limited options.

Considerations: Bills (-8.5) over Dolphins (TNF); Buccaneers (-7.5) over Jets; Commanders (-7.5) over Raiders

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks

Week 4

Texans (-6) over Titans

Something worth keeping in mind as you go through the Circa Survivor selection process is that you’ll need to use 20 of the 32 teams to make it to the end. So, that sometimes means bypassing the biggest favorite and looking to sneak a team through. I don’t think the Texans fully apply in that context here, but it is important here in my mind to save the Bills and Lions, even though they are probably double-digit favorites.

Considerations: Bills (-12.5) over Saints; Lions (-10.5) over Browns; Rams (-6.5) over Colts; Dolphins (-5.5) over Jets

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans

Week 5

Vikings (-7) over Browns

We have a unique situation here, as the Vikings are playing a second straight week in Europe and the Browns are not. Minnesota is a decidedly better team than Cleveland to begin with, but the Europe factor adds in another layer. The Browns play in Detroit the week prior and will travel to London later in the week. The Europe games can have a higher level of variance just because of the nature of the travel and the game, but this one seems more projectable.

This is also the first week with byes, which cuts down the number of available teams.

Considerations: Colts (-1.5) over Raiders; Cardinals (-5.5) over Titans; Ravens (-7.5) over Texans; Bills (-8.5) over Patriots

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings

Week 6

Steelers (-6.5) over Browns

The Steelers get a chance to kick their hated rivals while they are down here. This is a third straight game away from home for Cleveland and Pittsburgh is off of the bye. Judging by Pittsburgh’s schedule, this should be their highest game from a win probability standpoint. The spread indicates that and so does the spot, with the Browns coming back from London and the Steelers well-rested. Remember – we have to take at least 20 different teams, so even if a team is projected to be mediocre, you still want to find spots to use them.

Considerations: Eagles (-7) over Giants (TNF); Broncos (-6.5) over Jets (London); Raiders (-3) over Titans

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers

Week 7

Chargers (-6) over Colts

While the Chargers are unlikely to be the biggest favorite of the week, this is a pretty good spot to back them given the difficulty of their schedule. They play the Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Giants, Commanders, and Dolphins prior to this, with the opener in Brazil and games in Vegas, New Jersey, and South Florida, so their “easiest” games are on the road. The schedule lightens up here in what amounts to a must-win type of spot against a Colts team making its second long trip to Los Angeles (Rams in Week 4).

Considerations: Bears (-7.5) over Saints; Chiefs (-9.5) over Raiders; Jets (-1.5) over Panthers; Broncos (-7.5) over Giants; 49ers (-6.5) over Falcons

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers

Week 8

Patriots (-5.5) over Browns

Welp, let’s pick on the Browns again. The bye week – and a badly needed one at that – is the following week for Cleveland. This will be their fourth road game in five weeks and sixth in the first eight weeks of the season. It is the first game back in Foxboro for the Patriots in nearly a month, as they play road games in Weeks 5-7, so this is a “get right” type of game at home against a bad opponent and arguably the Patriots’ best spot for a Survivor pick. They do play the Jets in Week 11, but it is a Thursday Night Football game.

Considerations: Bengals (-7.5) over Jets; Eagles (-10.5) over Giants; Colts (-3.5) over Titans

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots

Week 9

Rams (-9.5) over Saints

This is a pretty ugly and limited week for Survivor contestants. Four teams are on a bye and, as mentioned, the Browns are one of them. The Jets are also idle, along with the Eagles and Buccaneers, so two teams you’d like to go against and two teams you’d probably think of using. But, the Saints should be a great team to go against as well. The Rams are off of the bye after playing in London in Week 7 and the Saints will be eight weeks into whatever their season holds. And it probably won’t be good.

Considerations: Packers (-7.5) over Panthers; Raiders (-1.5) over Jaguars

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams

Week 10

Bears (-5.5) over Giants

The holiday games have been a consideration for me every week up until this point and I’ve stayed away from them. But, this is a spot where I am interested in one. Even if Jalen Hurts (and others) were to be hurt for the Black Friday game, I still wouldn’t have too much interest in backing the Bears on the road against the Eagles. I wouldn’t call this a layup against the Giants, but maybe a somewhat contested 8-footer. It is a good spot for the Bears to rally before the schedule toughens up again and it is a third road game in four weeks and a fourth in six weeks for the Giants.

Considerations: Broncos (-6.5) over Raiders (TNF); Jets (-2.5) over Browns; Panthers (-4.5) over Saints; Texans (-3.5) over Jaguars

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears

Week 11

Packers (-4.5) over Giants

Hold your breath. Hold your nose. Hold a loved one. Hold something. Week 11 is messy. Early lines had the Packers -4.5 on the road against the Giants, which was tied for the fourth-highest line of the week. The Patriots (Jets), Bills (Bucs), and Ravens (Browns) were the only bigger favorites when putting this together. As I outlined above, losing is in the Giants’ best interest this season and this one fits the bill to me. The Packers are on a short week and play all three NFC North rivals over the next three weeks, so the spot is scary, but I think the risk is worth it.

I’d prefer to save the Bills, need the Ravens for Thanksgiving, and already used the Patriots. Again, as with most weeks, if Thanksgiving and Christmas are not concerns, by all means take the Ravens.

Considerations: Patriots (-5.5) over Jets (TNF); Falcons (-3) over Panthers; Ravens (-8.5) over Browns

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Packers

Week 12

49ers (-7) over Panthers

This is the week before Thanksgiving, which is very important to point out. As you will see, the best considerations are the Lions, Chiefs, and Ravens, who all play on Turkey Day. Like I said from the jump, you want as many holiday options as possible. This is Monday Night Football, so a stressful wait could be in the cards, but it is a back-to-back road spot for a Carolina team that doesn’t have its bye until Week 14. It will be just the second game not played at 1 p.m. ET (Week 2) for them. While the 49ers have a late bye as well, so they’ll be playing a 12th straight game, they won’t have gone further than Glendale since Week 9.

Considerations: Lions (-8.5) over Giants; Chiefs (-9.5) over Colts; Ravens (-11.5) over Jets; Raiders (-3.5) over Browns

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Packers, 49ers

Thanksgiving (in Circa Survivor)

Ravens (-5.5) over Bengals

Pretty simple here. There are four games up for discussion – Packers at Lions, Chiefs at Cowboys, Bengals at Ravens, and Bears at Eagles. The Eagles were the biggest of the favorites at the time of this exercise, but I’m saving them for later. Maybe that’s a mistake, to “save a team for later” this deep in the competition, but Baltimore feels the safest with a division game at home on a short week.

Considerations: Chiefs (-5.5) over Cowboys; Eagles (-7) over Bears

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Packers, 49ers, Ravens

Week 13

Dolphins (-6) over Saints

Admittedly, I have no idea what kind of state the Dolphins will be in by this point. Does Mike McDaniel still have a job? Are the playoffs a possibility? Is Tua Tagovailoa still upright? There are going to be decisions that you wrestle with and second-guessing is inevitable, win or lose. All of the other best Week 13 options were selected to get to this point, but this is absolutely a game that Miami should win and unquestionably the best time to take them. Remember – you’re going to need 20 teams to win for you in order to cash and not all of them will be enjoyable sweats.

Considerations: 49ers (-6) over Browns; Chargers (-6.5) over Raiders; Patriots (-3) over Giants

Used: Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Packers, 49ers, Ravens, Dolphins

Week 14

Buccaneers (-9.5) over Saints

There is quite a pattern here, eh? This is the fourth time picking against the Saints. The Browns have been a victim three times thus far. Those teams will luck into some wins at some point. You just hope they’re not when you’re against them. This is a great spot for the Bucs. They’re in the midst of three straight home games and will have already played the Saints on the road, so they’ll have all the film they need with the far superior roster. It will be their biggest favorite role (barring injury) and a great pick to have at this stage of the game, especially because the pickings are pretty slim this week.

Considerations: Ravens (-8.5) over Steelers; Browns (-1.5) over Titans; Chiefs (-6.5) over Texans

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Packers, 49ers, Ravens, Dolphins, Buccaneers

Week 15

Eagles (-10.5) over Raiders

A long trip east for a December 14 game for the dome-dwelling Raiders seems potentially problematic. By this point, the Raiders could also be positioning themselves for the NFL Draft, as they’ll have just played the Chargers and Broncos. This game should matter a lot to the Eagles. They are on a short week after coming back from Los Angeles for Monday Night Football, but that’s a minor concern to me. We’ve also gotten the holiday concern out of the way for the Eagles since they are not part of the Christmas slate.

Considerations: Bears (-7) over Browns; Jaguars (-4.5) over Jets; 49ers (-7.5) over Titans; Seahawks (-3.5) over Colts

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Packers, 49ers, Ravens, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles

Week 16

Bills (-8.5) over Browns

Just the second road team on the list so far. There are home teams that could apply here, too, but the Bills should have something to play for and the Browns shouldn’t, other than pride. Who knows how dysfunctional the organization will be by this point, but I have to think one of Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders is starting this game. They’ll have to evaluate one or both of them. I think I’m okay with Josh Allen over one of those dudes, away game or not.

Considerations: Chiefs (-7) over Titans; Ravens (-8.5) over Patriots; Broncos (-5.5) over Jaguars; Lions (-6) over Steelers

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Packers, 49ers, Ravens, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Bills

Christmas (in Circa Survivor)

Commanders (-5.5) over Cowboys

There are only three games here, so there are just six teams to pick from. Because Christmas falls on a Thursday, we just get a tripleheader. You notice, though, that both the Lions and the Chiefs – the two other favorites – are still available here. Having options for the holiday games is critical. Even though it’s Week 17 and you’d love to use them earlier, if you get to this point, you can’t get shut out. As far as the Commanders, I’ve been holding them for this spot and have to go with it.

Considerations: Chiefs (-5.5) over Broncos

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Packers, 49ers, Ravens, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Bills, Commanders

Week 17

Bengals (-3.5) over Cardinals

Let me tell you…Week 17 is AWFUL. Like extremely awful. At the time I wrote this up (May 20), the biggest Saturday/Sunday/Monday favorite in Week 17 was -3.5. Injuries will obviously alter the market, but at least I still have Joe Burrow against a Cardinals crew forced to play outside on December 28. There is also a chance that this game is flexed to Saturday, so it could be a short week for the desert dwellers to fly all the way to the Rust Belt.

Considerations: Raiders (-2.5) over Giants; Titans (-3.5) over Saints

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Packers, 49ers, Ravens, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Bills, Commanders, Bengals

Week 18

Chiefs (-6) over Raiders

Initially, I was saving the Bills for here (Jets) over the Chiefs, but this is a rare year in which Kansas City may have to play everybody in Week 18 because of the strength of the AFC West. Projecting Week 18 this far in advance is probably a meaningless exercise, as we’ll have a ton of moving parts. There are likely to be a lot of strong options. Bengals over the Browns comes to mind. But, I’d rather trust the Bengals in Week 17 than the Raiders or Titans, at least as of now and take a third and final road team to finish it off.

Considerations: Bengals (-8.5) over Browns; Bills (-9.5) over Jets

Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Packers, 49ers, Ravens, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Bills, Commanders, Bengals, Chiefs

Whether or not you plot a course in similar fashion to this or just focus on the present instead of the future, the most important piece of information to remember from this exercise is to be extremely aware of the holiday games because you’ll want multiple options for arguably the two biggest potential landmines that the unique Circa Survivor rules have to offer.