DIVISION PREVIEW

The NFC North took a step back last season after being the top NFL division in 2024 with an all-time best combined record of 45-23 (66.2%) – even better at 36-14 (72%) removing the 9-9 record against each other. Three teams – Lions, Vikings and Packers – won at least 11 games, and those three made the playoffs.

The Bears were the weak link in 2024. However, they flipped the script in 2025 with seven fourth-quarter comebacks, including an NFL-record six after trailing at the two-minute warning, to win the division at 11-6. The Packers wound up in second place at 9-7-1 and the Lions tied for third (and last) at 9-8. Only the Packers earned a Wild Card, and then the Bears erased a 21-6 fourth-quarter deficit to beat them 31-27 in a wild finish before losing 20-17 to the Rams in the divisional playoffs. So, despite the Bears’ thrilling wins, it was a down year for the NFC North.

This season, the Lions are again the divisional future-book favorites at +165 with the Packers again the second choice at +235, followed by the Bears at +360 and the Vikings at +450.

CHICAGO BEARS

As noted in the NFC North intro, the Bears’ 2025 season was wild with seven fourth-quarter comebacks on the way to a surprising 11-6 record and NFC North title under first-year head coach Ben Johnson (former offensive coordinator of the Lions) and second-year QB Caleb Williams. Fans are frustrated with the team’s threats to move to the Chicago suburb Arlington Heights (don’t get me started on the tearing down of my beloved Arlington Park, where I cut my gambling teeth in the early 1990s) and then Hammond, Indiana, but optimistic to cheer on the current team their beloved Bears are building.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Will the Bears avoid a reversal of fortune?

The Bears went from a 5-12 team in 2024 with a 10-game losing streak to an 11-6 team in 2025 and NFC North champs. My VSiN colleague Steve Makinen warns that only five of the last 54 teams that have improved by six or more wins over the prior year have been able to improve again in the follow-up season. That doesn’t bode well for the Bears, especially with all those come-from-behind miracles that many see as flukes. And, while the rallies against the Packers in Week 16 and the Wild Card victory were against a good team, many occurred against subpar teams like the Raiders (3-14), Giants (4-13), Commanders (5-12) and Bengals (6-11).

Can Caleb Williams pitch complete games?

Former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams certainly showed a flair for the dramatic and came through in the clutch again and again in his second season with the Bears. Overall, he improved from 3,541 yards to 3,942 and 20 TD passes to 27, and only increased seven INTs compared to six in his rookie season. But the big question is if he’ll be able to be more consistent early in games and keep his team from falling behind so much. It’s great to be able to rally your team as all the great quarterbacks do, but you can’t count on that every time. The young Bears need to learn how to play in the first quarter as they do in the fourth to have long-term success. 

Can the defense keep forcing turnovers at a high rate?

The Bears’ defense ranked No. 27 in yards allowed in 2024 and actually dropped to No. 29 (361.8 yards per game) in its first season under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. They also ranked just No. 23 in points allowed (24.3 points per game). However, a lot of that was giving up early leads as the defense often stepped up late in games to set up the offense’s seven come-from-behind wins. The other good news for the defense was ranking No. 1 in takeaways (33) and interceptions (23). The problem is that while defensive players can make their own luck, a lot of turnovers are lucky, and that’s a stat that can easily regress to the mean. The Bears’ defense has lost eight key players since the end of last season, most notably LB Tremaine Edmunds, S Kevin Byard, S Jaquan Brisker, CB Nahshon Wright and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. The Bears have DE Dayo Odeyingbo and CB Kyler Gordon returning from injuries, plus added free agents LB Devin Bush and S Coby Bryant and drafted Dillon Thieneman.

Bears 2026 Win Total Pick – Over 9.5

The Bears won 11 games last year, but the oddsmakers went ahead and put their Over/Under Season Wins Total at 9.5, and the market has made the Under the favorite between -130 to -135 at Vegas sportsbooks. While we know it’s going to be tough for the Bears to improve again on that record, the play definitely looks like it’s to take the Over. The offense proved it can come from behind and should be able to do better early in games, especially against weaker teams. They’re probably worth a +360 or better wager to repeat as NFC North champs, but the stronger play looks like the Over 9.5 at plus-money.

DETROIT LIONS

The Lions went 12-5 in 2023 and 15-2 in 2024, becoming one of the top teams in the NFC and a legit Super Bowl contender. However, they struggled all last season to get back into winning form after losing both coordinators to head coaching jobs in the offseason (OC Ben Johnson to the Bears and DC Aaron Glenn to the Jets). Despite all that, they were 7-4 through 11 games and just one game behind the Bears before going 2-6 down the stretch to finish 9-8 and out of the playoffs. In addition to being the +165 favorite in the NFC North, they also have the highest Over/Under Season Win Total in the division at 10.5 (Over -140) as oddsmakers expect them to reclaim the crown.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Is a new offensive coordinator the answer?

The loss of Johnson last year was obvious early on, and it hurt more as Johnson had the Bears in first place in the division. After Detroit’s bye in Week 8, they lost to the Vikings 27-24, prompting Campbell to have a meeting with new offensive coordinator John Morton and take over the play-calling duties himself. It sparked the offense to a 44-42 win over the Commanders in Week 10, but the experiment didn’t succeed for long as the Lions went 3-5 the rest of the way and Morton was fired after the season. Drew Petzing takes over as the full-time offensive coordinator, with Mike Kafka now the passing game coordinator. This could work with Petzing’s reputation for loving the ground game to help set up QB Jared Goff’s play-action skills for Kafka’s passing schemes. It’ll be interesting to see if Campbell lets them do their jobs or steps in again. We’re expecting the former.

Can the offense succeed with a rebuilt offensive line?

While Goff and the Lions’ coordinators try to get the offense back on track, he’ll be working behind a rebuilt O-line. Last June, Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow retired and left a big hole in the offensive line. Then injuries decimated it during the season. Goff was sacked 38 times, and the running game also suffered. Fixing the issue was a top priority this offseason, and the Lions appear to have done just that. Pro Bowl LT Penei Sewell is back, but they released Ragnow’s replacement, Graham Glasgow, and instead signed former Panther Cade Mays to start at center, though he can play multiple positions if needed. They also added Juice Scruggs from the Texans, Larry Borom from the Dolphins and Ben Bartch from the 49ers, and drafted RT Blake Miller from Clemson.

What areas does the defense need to improve?

While most of the focus was on the offense’s decline last year, the defense also dropped from No. 7 in scoring defense in 2024 at 20.1 points per game to No. 22 in 2025 at 24.3 points per game. Injuries were a big part of that decline, as the Lions ranked last in the NFL in adjusted games lost on defense. The rushing defense dropped to No. 29, so that definitely needs to improve, but with a high-scoring offense, they also need to be prepared to be in some shootouts as teams will likely be passing on them, especially in the second halves of games. Last year, the defense used a base scheme (three linebackers) more than any team in the league, and DC Kelvin Sheppard has been quoted as saying he’s going to be using more nickel packages (five defensive backs).

Lions 2026 Win Total Pick – Over 10.5

The Lions are certainly coming off a disappointing 2025 season but have most of their key talented players back (in my opinion, the biggest loss was RB David Montgomery, but he was more of a supplement to now bell-cow Jahmyr Gibbs) to try to turn things back around, plus a rebuilt offensive line. It’s still a tough division, but the Lions won 12 games three years ago and 15 two years ago and should certainly improve on last year’s nine wins and get back to 11 to win the division (and our bet).

GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers regressed from 11 wins in 2024 to 9-7-1 in 2025, with the tie in a rather embarrassing 40-40 game (Week 4 Sunday nighter) as a 6.5-point road favorite against the struggling Cowboys. But, that tie actually helped them make the playoffs for the third straight year under QB Jordan Love, though they suffered a Wild Card round loss to the Bears. The Packers have had more hurtful losses than helpful additions this offseason and didn’t have a first-round draft pick and didn’t get to pick until No. 52 because of last year’s deal to acquire Micah Parsons, who also won’t be available the first few weeks this season.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Can the defense succeed without Parsons (or with him)?

As alluded to in the intro, Micah Parsons is expected to miss the first month of the season (four to six games) while still rehabbing from a torn ACL and a meniscus procedure last December. That will take the Packers into mid-October without their star, and the rest of the defense will have to step up. However, it’s up for debate how much Parsons improved the Green Bay defense last season – even though he earned a 91.9 overall score from Pro Football Focus, No. 3 among edge rushers – for a unit that ranked No. 5 overall (315.6 yards per game) in 2024 without him and then No. 6 overall (though dropped to 294.6 yards per game) with him in 2025. Other defensive team stats are also similar, so the Packers still have a solid core even with the losses of LB Quay Walker, DE Rashan Gary and CB Nate Hobbs, though they have added DT Javon Hargrave and LB Zaire Franklin. I’m just not sure it’s enough to overcome the losses.

Is Jordan Love a top-tier NFL QB or overrated?

Love hasn’t been a bust since taking over from the Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers eras in Green Bay that ran from 1992 to 2022. But, the debate rages on if he’s a top-tier QB, as he threw for 3,381 yards last season (nearly identical to his 3,389 in 2024) with 23 TDs and only six INTs for a passer rating of 101.2. That was No. 6 behind only Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Also against his case is a playoff record of just 1-3, with the win coming in his postseason debut in a 2023 Wild Card win over the Cowboys. He has lost the last three times to the 49ers in the 2023 divisional playoffs and the last two years in the Wild Card round to the Eagles and Bears.

Can the Packers keep winning with wide receivers by committee?   

Since trading WR Davante Adams to the Raiders after the 2022 season, the Packers haven’t really had a No. 1 receiver. Just look at the Packers’ leading receivers the past three years: Jayden Reed with 793 yards in 2023, Reed with 857 in 2024, and Romeo Doubs with 724 in 2025. In this pass-happy era, it’s not often you see a top team without a 1,000-yard receiver. The Packers have done that for three straight years. Now, they lost Doubs in free agency to the Patriots and traded Dontayvion Wicks to the Eagles. They’ve added former Chiefs WR Skyy Moore, and Bo Melton is moving back to WR, but it leaves only Reed (who was given a contract extension) as a lukewarm WR1 with the hopes that former No. 1 pick Matthew Golden has his breakout season. But it’s not promising after seeing the Packers’ dip from No. 5 in overall offense in 2024 to No. 15 last season.

Packers 2026 Win Total Pick – Under 9.5

In a tough division, the Packers could be the one headed in the wrong direction with their losses on both sides of the football, including the uncertain status of RB Josh Jacobs, who was arrested in late May on alleged domestic violence allegations. Oddsmakers have varied in their Over/Under Season Win Total offerings on the Packers, with most at 9.5, but with William Hill going with 10.5 and the Under favored at -170. I definitely have the Packers not getting to double digits, but I don’t like to lay that much juice, so I’m going with the Under 9.5 at plus-money where available.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Vikings went a surprising 14-3 in 2024, with Kevin O’Connell winning AP Coach of the Year, and were led by former first-round bust QB Sam Darnold, who signed a $100 million contract with Seattle. We didn’t know at the time that Darnold was going to lead the Seahawks to a Super Bowl title, but it was pretty clear the Vikings weren’t going to win 14 games again with second-year QB J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings limped out to a 4-8 start, their worst since 2013, but despite being eliminated from a return trip to the playoffs, they closed out the season with five straight wins to finish above .500 at 9-8 and gave the fan base reason for optimism.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Who the heck is starting at QB?

McCarthy had a mediocre first season as the starting QB, throwing for just 1,632 yards and just 11 TDs to 12 INTs and an overall passer rating of 72.6, which ranked among the worst in the league among regular starters and closer to part-time starters like Shedeur Sanders, Spencer Rattler and Justin Fields. He did improve his TD/INT ratio in the second half of the season from a dismal 4/8 to a serviceable 7/4. However, as much as we’d like to say he improved, his passer rating with stud WR Justin Jefferson was a league-low 42.9, which seems impossible, and he took too many sacks. So, the Vikings brought in former Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, whose 2025 season only lasted five games before a major foot injury, as he only threw for 962 yards, six TDs and three INTs for a passer rating of 88.6, not great but still better than McCarthy. There have been conflicting reports from mini-camp on which QB had the leg up on the starting job, so this will be one of the most-watched battles in training camp and in the actual preseason games.

Can OT Christian Darrisaw stay healthy?

Offensive left tackle Christian Darrisaw anchors the Vikings’ line and protects the starting QB’s blind side, regardless of who starts. He only played 10 games last season before a knee injury landed him on injured reserve, and Minnesota had to use 26 different combinations of starting linemen and allowed 60 sacks, tied for second-most in the league. Prior to his first knee injury in 2024, Darrisaw was the No. 4 tackle in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. He was a full participant during mini-camp, and his healthy return would go a long way to getting the offense back on track.

Will the defense bounce back?

Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, Minnesota ranked No. 17 in 2023 but then improved to No. 2 in 2024, as it was as responsible for the Vikings’ 14-3 record as Sam Darnold and the offense, but then dipped to No. 8 last season. Flores continues to sue the NFL for his firing by Miami after the 2021 season and what he calls systemic racism in his subsequent search for a head coaching job, but he signed a contract extension for this season. The defense is now without several veteran staples, notably Jonathan Greenard dealt to Philadelphia, Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave, and Harrison Smith (though the door is open for his return as an unsigned free agent as of press time), so Flores is definitely in charge of a youth movement.

Vikings 2026 Win Total Pick – Over 8.5

Last year, it was obvious the Vikings were going to regress with the switch from Darnold to McCarthy, but now we have an Over/Under total that seems low at 8.5, so we have a strong lean to the Over. Whether it’s Murray or McCarthy that gets the starting QB nod, the offense still has the potential to be potent with not only Jefferson and Jordan Addison back, but also adding Jauan Jennings from San Francisco. And a healthier offensive line should also help, while the defense has room to improve under Flores and make this a well-balanced team again, as we saw two years ago with an outsider’s chance to steal the division crown.