DIVISION PREVIEW

The NFC South was objectively the worst division in football last season. The Panthers won the division at 8-9 due to tiebreakers over the Buccaneers and Falcons. The Saints were 6-11 and a case could be made that they were the division’s best team by the end of the season, winning four of their last five games, including victories over Tampa Bay and Carolina. They also outgained Atlanta by 132 yards in the regular season finale, holding them to just 208 yards in a 19-17 loss.

Not only was this the worst division record-wise, but the four teams collectively mustered just 1,350 points, the lowest of any of the eight divisions around the league. With Kevin Stefanski as the lone new head coach in the division, we should see an uptick from the Falcons offense, plus continued improvement out of the Saints in Year 2 for Kellen Moore and perhaps even some offensive strides from the Panthers in Year 3 with Dave Canales and Bryce Young off of career highs in passing yards and touchdowns and a career-low with 27 sacks.

While optimism seems warranted for those three teams, the Buccaneers, who have the longest-tenured coach by far in Todd Bowles, bid adieu to Mike Evans and also OC Josh Grizzard, so Baker Mayfield will have yet another playbook to learn. That said, Tampa Bay might still have the best depth chart on paper in the division and almost by default has the best quarterback.

To say that the NFC South is wide-open in 2026 is an understatement. All four teams finished the 2025 campaign with negative point differentials. It was the Falcons who actually had the most yards per play with 5.4 and the Saints who actually had one of the league’s best defenses by YPP allowed with just 4.8. The division champs were outgained by 0.5 yards per play and the Bucs were outgained by 0.6 yards per play. Ironically, the Bucs now have former Falcons OC Zac Robinson because Stefanski brought Browns OC Tommy Rees with him to Georgia.

The bar to win the division might be low, but it sure feels like one of these four teams has the chance to take off and really make some noise. The Bucs (+160) enter as a tepid division favorite, followed by the Saints (+265), Panthers (+310), and Falcons (+450).

ATLANTA FALCONS

As somebody who left Cleveland to move to Vegas and looks back just about every day, I don’t think Kevin Stefanski will do the same from his office in Atlanta. Stefanski was the first Browns head coach to have multiple playoff appearances since Marty Schottenheimer in the late ‘80s and first Browns head coach to last six seasons since Sam Rutigliano in the late ‘70s/early ‘80s. He did all of that while navigating Baker Mayfield, finding the Fountain of Youth with Joe Flacco, and playing the “company man” role about the disastrous Deshaun Watson trade.

Stefanski won Coach of the Year in 2020 and 2023 and was a combined 22-11 over those two seasons. Of course, that means he was 23-45 over the other four seasons. He enters a much better situation in Atlanta than he entered in Cleveland, although, ironically, the biggest question he has to answer is once again at the quarterback position.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Is the Penix mightier?

When the Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. while still having Kirk Cousins under contract, the coaching staff and front office were left with a decision between the present and the future. As it turned out, neither Cousins nor Penix played all that well when given an opportunity. Cousins has now moved on and the Falcons brought in more competition for the left-hander by signing fellow southpaw slinger Tua Tagovailoa.

Among 34 QBs with at least 300 plays, Penix was 21st in Adjusted EPA/Play per RBSDM. Tua was 28th with the Dolphins. Penix was -3.6% in Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), while Tua was +2.0%. In other words, Tua got “luckier” in terms of completing passes than Penix, but the Atlanta holdover was still a better player in terms of EPA, mostly because Tagovailoa threw 15 interceptions and Penix threw just three.

Does Rees have the pieces?

During his Browns tenure, Stefanski mostly called the plays, but there were times when he ceded control of the playbook. That included the second half of last season when wunderkind Tommy Rees got the keys to the car. The 34-year-old had a bad offensive line and a bad quarterback to plan around, so it’s hard to grade him based on the small sample size returns. Rees will be calling the plays here based on Stefanski’s intro presser back in January.

According to ESPN’s offensive line rankings from the 2025 season, the Falcons were 12th overall in pass blocking and 16th in run blocking. The Browns were 31st in both. Bijan Robinson and Drake London are two terrific weapons and Kyle Pitts, who rebounded from a couple of lackluster seasons, should be a focal point given what Stefanski did with David Njoku and what Rees and Stefanski did with Harold Fannin Jr. For a team below average in Explosive Play Rate with the run and the pass, this could be a unit that dramatically improves.

If it ain’t broke, why fix it?

When you think about a coaching change, it is usually a sweeping thing across the organization. That is not the case in Atlanta, as Jeff Ulbrich was retained as the defensive coordinator. While pass game coordinator Mike Rutenberg is now the DC with Stefanski’s former employer, Ulbrich gets to keep building upon what he did last season. The Falcons forced five more turnovers and made modest strides in yards per play allowed, points per drive, and went from the second-worst third-down defense to around the middle of the pack.

We’ll wait to see if any supplemental discipline comes for James Pearce Jr., who was third in the DROY voting, but he had 10.5 sacks, more than any Falcon in 2024, and the team had 57 sacks, an increase of 26 from the previous season. Unfortunately, Kaden Elliss, who had 380 tackles in three seasons with the Falcons, went back to where it all started with the Saints.

2026 Falcons Season Win Total Pick – Over 6.5

The Penix/Tua situation will sort itself out and even average QB play with this skill group and what should be an improved defense yet again leaves the Falcons lined too low in the win total market. The schedule is definitely tricky with the NFC North and AFC North, but even a 4-2 record against NFC South foes would be a great start and a reasonable goal to reach.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

If the recent pattern holds, say hello to the 11-6 Carolina Panthers! Dave Canales inherited a 2-15 team from Chris Tabor/Frank Reich and proceeded to go 5-12 in his first season as an NFL head coach. Another three-win improvement in Year 2 was enough to win the NFC South at 8-9, despite the fact that the Panthers scored 30 fewer points. The defense improved by 150 points, which made the three-win improvement and playoff berth possible, but it was disappointing to see the offense under Canales not really move forward.

This remains an organization that hasn’t had a winning season since 2017, which was also the last time that the Panthers had a positive point differential. On the surface, it looks like the team is going in the right direction, but is that really the case as we head into 2026?

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

How much better can Bryce be?

Bryce Young started 16 games and threw for over 3,000 yards for the first time in his career. He also had more than 20 TD passes for the first time and was only sacked 27 times. While many of the statistical improvements were modest, they were still improvements and that was good to see as Young built on the second half of 2024 and got more comfortable in the Canales offense.

Statistically speaking, we can see how the Panthers offense evolved. Tetairoa McMillan had a lot to do with it, as he led the team in targets (122), catches (70), yards (1,014), and touchdowns (7) en route to the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. McMillan had nearly twice as many catches and targets as anybody else and more than 2.5x the receiving yardage. Young benefitted from having McMillan, but what’s next? 

He went from 3.7 Completed Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (CAY/PA) to 3.1 and went from 4.1 Yards After Catch Per Completion (YAC/Cmp) to 5.1. His On Target Percentage (OnTgt%) was 77.9%, a 6% increase from 2024, but where does the next level come from? Young had over 200 fewer Intended Air Yards compared to 2024, even though he had 94 more pass attempts.

What are the expectations for the defense?

A case could be made that no defense in the NFL improved more than Carolina’s. The 2024 Panthers were outgained by more than 1,800 yards and outscored by nearly 200 points. They were last in points per drive, rushing yards per carry, pass touchdowns allowed, and in the bottom five in several other categories. The 2025 defense was 24th in points per drive, 22nd in yards per carry, and seventh in pass touchdowns allowed. To build on that momentum, the big offseason spends were edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and weak-side linebacker Devin Lloyd.

Does DC Ejiro Evero feel like he can be a little more aggressive now? Phillips is a bona fide pass rusher for a team that only had 30 sacks and ranked 31st in Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference. The Panthers went from 32nd in EPA/play on defense to 23rd. A similar leap would greatly increase the chances of a division repeat.

Are these coaches right for the Panthers?

A six-win improvement over two seasons sure looks good, but Evero’s defense ranked 32nd in third-down defense in 2024 and 31st in third-down defense in 2025. The Canales/Brad Idzik offense was 26th in 2024 and 25th on the money down. Even with McMillan’s arrival and the re-tooled offensive playbook, the Panthers went from ninth in red zone efficiency to 24th and even had five fewer red zone trips.

There is something to be said about executing in close games and Carolina won six of their eight games by exactly three points, especially with an offense that was 27th in both points and yards, but execution on important downs has to get better.

2026 Panthers Season Win Total Pick – Under 7.5

The ceiling in Charlotte may very well have been what we saw last season. Even though the Panthers faced the NFC West last season, the schedule is objectively more difficult by virtue of winning the division and adding the Eagles, Broncos, and Seahawks to the slate. Unlike last season with the latest possible bye in Week 14, the Panthers now have the earliest possible bye in Week 5. Even though Carolina lost four of their last five after the bye, including the Wild Card Game against the Rams, an early one can be problematic, too.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

With a new head coach, it’s often not how you start, but how you finish. After losing eight of nine and 10 of 12 to start the season, the Saints reeled off a four-game winning streak in December and missed an opportunity in Week 18 with a 19-17 loss to the Falcons in a game where they had a 132-yard edge. Tyler Shough started nine games with a 5-4 record and was second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, even though he’s older than backup QB Spencer Rattler.

Kellen Moore had a good first season as a head coach and it sure looked like Brandon Staley was the right hire as DC. With a strong collection of free agents and a lot of players that improved last season, the Saints look like a threat in the wide-open NFC South.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Aw, Shoughs or Shough Yeah?

Shough came in for Rattler in Week 8 against the Buccaneers and never looked back, going 5-4 as a starter. Given that Rattler is 1-13 as a starter in his career, it didn’t take long for Shough to surpass him in the win department. When all was said and done, Shough had a 67.6% completion rate with a 10/6 TD/INT ratio and was sacked 31 times. Rattler had a 67.7% completion rate with an 8/5 TD/INT ratio and was sacked 18 times.

By Adjusted EPA/play, Shough was 25th out of 34 QBs with at least 300 plays, while Rattler was 29th. With Shough, the Saints were able to attack a little bit more, with 4.8 yards after catch per completion compared to Rattler’s 3.7 YAC/Cmp. Shough also had more air yards and was a bit more accurate. The Saints only averaged 19.7 PPG in Shough starts and just 16 PPG in Rattler’s starts. New Orleans felt that Shough was worth a second-round pick even with Rattler on the roster, so it should be his offense moving forward and it’s up to Moore and OC Doug Nussmeier to get more out of him.

Will the Saints go marching on offense?

Shough has more to work with than his predecessors, as the Saints took Jordyn Tyson in the first round, signed Travis Etienne Jr., and added blocking help with guard David Edwards and tight end Noah Fant. Some QBs are gifted enough to make everybody around them better. Shough isn’t at that level yet and may never get there, but the supporting cast should make him better. Alvin Kamara only played 11 games with 3.6 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per reception in his age-30 campaign. As a team, the Saints were 31st in yards per carry with just 3.7.

Etienne, Edwards, and Fant will undoubtedly inject life into the ground game. Tyson gives defenses another player to think about after Chris Olave had 100 catches on 156 targets for 1,163 yards and Juwan Johnson was one of the league’s most productive receiving TE with 77 grabs for 889 yards. Shough didn’t really have a strong WR2 after Rashid Shaheed was traded, but now he does in Tyson for what was the worst red zone offense in the league last season.

Does the Brandon Staley redemption tour continue?

We’ll see if Staley gets another kick at the can as a head coach down the line after going 24-24 with the Chargers, but he’s impressing as a defensive coordinator again, much like he did back in 2020 for the Rams. This is the first time he’ll be a DC in consecutive seasons since he was coaching at John Carroll University, the D-III cradle of coaches just outside of Cleveland.

Under Staley, the Saints shaved off a full yard per play and allowed 1,363 fewer yards. They went from 21st in third-down defense to third at 34.3%. That being said, the Saints allowed nearly an identical number of points per drive (2.01 down from 2.03) and only had three more takeaways. Captain and leading tackler Demario Davis has been replaced by former Saint Kaden Elliss, potentially a downgrade for the second-best run defense by Rush EPA.

2026 Saints Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5

The Saints are one of six teams that don’t play a Thursday game and they have a bye after the Paris game, so they don’t have any short weeks. Finishing last has its advantages the following season, as the Saints draw the Raiders, Giants, and Cardinals as fellow last-place teams.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

In an offseason with 10 new head coaches hired, the Buccaneers opted to hold on to Todd Bowles. Time will tell if that was the right move or not, as OC Josh Grizzard and several position coaches were picked as the scapegoats for last season’s 8-9 showing and first playoff miss since 2019. Losing out to the Panthers via tiebreakers snapped Tampa Bay’s four-year streak of winning the NFC South, with records of 10-7, 9-8, 8-9, and 13-4.

This is a really big season for the Buccaneers and Bowles. Baker Mayfield is slated for free agency after the season and the team has a $30 million option on Chris Godwin. Vita Vea also has some more money coming very soon. Mike Evans switched leagues and coasts, so this is officially Emeka Egbuka’s offense now and the rest of the division seems to be improving around the Bucs.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

What is the plan on offense?

Mayfield was drafted 1.1 in 2018 by the Browns, so he’s played eight seasons in the NFL. Back in 2022, he started six games for the Panthers and four games for the Rams before finding a more permanent home in Tampa Bay. In those eight seasons, Mayfield is now on his ninth offensive coordinator with Zac Robinson. That is a lot of different playbooks to learn. The firing of Grizzard after one season was something of a surprise, as Mayfield did have arguably his worst season as a Buccaneer, but Evans only played eight games, Godwin played nine, and Bucky Irving missed seven games.

He’s certainly a gunslinger with 1,679 pass attempts over the last three seasons and 95 TD against 37 INT. Under Robinson, the Falcons offense was 24th in points, 14th in yards, 26th in passing TDs, and 25th in points per drive, though the running game with Bijan Robinson was highly effective. Expect a healthy Irving to play a much bigger role here, as Robinson had 103 targets. Kyle Pitts and Drake London had 230 combined. The plan will be to get the ball to Irving, Egbuka, and Cade Otton as much as possible. And Baker loves to force throws.

How about looking in the mirror, Todd?

Bowles begins his eighth season with the Bucs and fourth as the head coach. The defense has ranked 29th, 29th, and 27th in passing yards against and 25th, 15th, and 26th in net yards per pass attempt. This was one of seven defenses with a Pressure% under 20% per Pro-Football-Reference, hence the first-round pick of Rueben Bain Jr. and the signing of Al-Quadin Muhammad.

Over the last three seasons, the Bucs are 24th in Dropback EPA against per RBSDM and 27th in Dropback Success Rate against. Bowles, a defensive back in the NFL and a secondary coach prior to becoming head coach of the Jets from 2015-18, hasn’t had much success lately with finding or coaching up DBs. Oh, and the Bucs were 32nd in red zone defense last season, too.

Do the Buccaneers need to evolve?

Veteran head coaches can win in the NFL. Andy Reid and Sean Payton are still doing it. But, the other tenured coaches experiencing success are guys like Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, and Kyle Shanahan. McVay is 40, the other two are 46, and all of them were viewed as very progressive offensive minds at the time they were hired as head coaches. In the Bowles era, the Bucs have had four offensive coordinators – Byron Leftwich, Dave Canales, Liam Coen, and Grizzard. Two are head coaches now. Grizzard might be now that he’s in the Eagles organization.

But, GM Jason Licht seems halfway in and halfway out. He’s willing to let a young up-and-comer call plays, but the defense is dated and the head coach who has say over everything is a football lifer in his 60s and is trying to play HC and DC at the same time. If we include the playoffs, Bowles is 36-36 as the Bucs head coach. Perfectly mediocre. How does that change with him in charge?

2026 Buccaneers Season Win Total Pick – Under 8.5

Ultimately, there are too many mixed signals and rowers going in opposite directions on the same boat. The Bucs were 3-3 last season against the NFC South after going 12-6 in Bowles’ first three seasons. Given how that gap has closed, and that the Bucs are 23-27 outside the division in the Bowles era, this is a season likely to fall short of expectations.