On Sunday, January 26th, the Philadelphia Eagles will host the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field for the NFC Championship Game. With the biggest games of the NFL season still to come, it’s a good time to grab a VSiN Pro subscription. We’re going right from this into our in-depth coverage of March Madness, and we’re also going to be posting a ton of MLB season preview content soon. On top of that, we’re still going hard providing you with analysis on the NBA and NHL. And for those of you that fancy some tennis, we’re doing a ton of that! Also, not only will we have all sorts of written content, but our live programming is hitting on all of these topics. With that out of the way, it’s time to get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Commanders vs. Eagles odds, predictions and best bets.

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How To Watch Commanders vs. Eagles

When: Sunday, January 26th at 3:00 pm ET

Where: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Channel: FOX

Commanders vs. Eagles Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, January 20th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Eagles -265, Commanders +215

Spread: Eagles -5.5 (-112), Commanders +5.5 (-108)

Total: Over 48.5 (-105), Under 48.5 (-115)

Commanders vs. Eagles Analysis

These teams split wins — both straight-up and against the spread — in their two regular-season matchups. Both squads took care of business when playing at home. And it should be noted that the Eagles have done that all year long. Philadelphia is 9-1 SU at The Linc this year. However, the most recent of the two Commanders-Eagles matchups was a Washington win on December 22nd. Between that, the Commanders coming into this one on a seven-game winning streak and a dominant road performance against an awesome Lions team, there’s plenty of public interest in backing Jayden Daniels and Co. Our DraftKings bettings splits and Circa betting splits pages show a little more of the public on Washington. However, both shops have more handle on the Eagles, and the line has moved from 4.5 to 5.5. So, it seems like there’s some sharp money on Philadelphia. As I have noted in these primetime previews all year long, I generally like to align myself with the pros. But I just can’t bring myself to do it here.

This might be a “sucker” way of thinking, but how can you not like Daniels to keep this thing close — and potentially even steal it late? There’s no denying that the difference in numbers defensively is scary here. The Eagles are third in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.087) this season, and the Commanders are just 22nd (0.049). But Washington was a bit better from Week 13 on, ranking 17th in the league in EPA per play allowed (0.032). And realistically, with Daniels at quarterback, the Commanders can win as long as they’re flirting with average on defense.

It’s also a little hard to ignore that Washington just went into a very similar game, taking on a Detroit team that was great offensively and had been playing very well on the defensive side of the ball — despite being banged up. Well, in that game, the only thing that mattered was that Daniels and the Commanders offense couldn’t be stopped. The rookie threw for 299 yards with two touchdowns and no picks, and he also rushed for 51 yards. Now, it’s very clear that Washington has the edge at quarterback in the NFC Championship Game, and it’s a significant one. Not only did Jalen Hurts stink up the joint against the Rams last game, but he also looked banged up.

If Hurts’ movement is compromised at all, it’s just hard to imagine Washington getting blown out. Dan Quinn might not have a lot of talent on his defense, but he’s a very bright defensive coach and he’ll have a plan in place to try to slow down Saquon Barkley. That’s obviously easier said than done, but it will be a lot easier if Hurts isn’t a threat to tuck and run. I’m also not sure Hurts will be a threat to make plays through the air. He looked completely flustered as a passer against Los Angeles.

Perhaps this is all recency bias, but it’s just hard not to like getting the points and a giant plus-money moneyline number on the team with a better quarterback. Daniels proved last week that he is not scared of the moment, and he should be able to turn in a big performance on this big stage. Given everything we’ve seen from him lately, that feels like more of a spoiler than a prediction (shout-out to Paul Heyman).

Let’s also not forget that Washington is 6-3 both SU and ATS as an underdog under Quinn. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 4-8 ATS in January under Nick Sirianni, and the team is also 3-4 ATS in playoff games with him on the sidelines. On top of that, the Eagles are just 8-10 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 60.0% to 75.0%.

Commanders vs. Eagles Player Props

Jayden Daniels Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Daniels’ passing yard prop looks absurdly low for this NFC Championship Game. Daniels threw for 268 yards against the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. He followed it up with 299 yards against the Lions in the Divisional Round. On top of that, Daniels threw for 258 yards when he faced the Eagles towards the end of the regular season, and he has thrown for at least 226 yards in the last five full games that he has played. He has also gone Over the mark for this game 12 times this season. I understand the Philadelphia defense is third in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.024), and Vic Fangio will likely have a better plan in place for Daniels than he did last time out. But this number is just two low for a player that is being fully empowered to go out and win this football game for his team.

Commanders vs. Eagles Pick

It’d be lovely to be getting a full touchdown instead of 6, but I would have been willing to take Washington at anything above 3. So, I’m rolling with the Commanders with the points to win 2 units, but I’m also risking a half-unit on Washington to win at +225. The Eagles might have a better defense than the Commanders, but quarterback play and fearlessness on the sidelines is massive in the postseason. You’re getting both from Washington, and we have already seen this team beat Philadelphia this season. Also, while I don’t always play the player props in these stories, I am taking the Daniels one.

Bet: Commanders +6 (-112), Commanders ML (+225), Daniels Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-110)

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