How to Win with VSiN NFL Betting Splits
The NFL is by far the most heavily bet and most popular professional sport in America. According to Nielsen, of the 100 most-watched programs in 2025, NFL games accounted for 89 of them. And, according to the American Gaming Association, roughly $30 billion was legally wagered on the 2025 NFL regular season. Now, with roughly 40 legal betting states in the country, along with the recent meteoric rise of Prediction Markets, the 2026 regular season is poised to shatter records and become the most heavily bet season of all time.
With so many Americans watching and, more importantly, betting on the NFL, it begs the question: what can recreational and new bettors alike do to increase their chances of winning?
The Public vs the Sharps
Generally speaking, there are three different philosophies employed by NFL bettors.
The most popular approach is the “public” method. This means largely ignoring betting data and line movement in favor of making picks based on gut instinct, favoritism and bias.
The public makes up the vast majority of bettors within the NFL market and most Average Joes bet for the sheer fun and entertainment value. Sure, they want to win, but they are largely betting like a fan. This means focusing on favorites, overs and parlays. They are intrinsically weighted toward always taking the “better” team, rooting for points because it’s more fun and betting small amounts in order to strike it rich with bigger payouts. The public method might be the most popular, but it’s also the least profitable.
The second method is the “professional” approach. Employed almost exclusively by sharps and veteran handicappers, the professional approach relies on setting your own power ratings and creating your own lines. Then, pros compare their numbers to what the sportsbooks are offering and only “get down” if they identify a notable discrepancy, which provides the pro bettor an advantage over the sportsbook, known popularly as an “edge.” So, if the pro’s numbers have the Rams projected as a 4.7-point favorite on Sunday and the Vegas line sits at Rams -3, the pro hammers Los Angeles because their numbers tell them it’s a smart bet.
So, for bettors who don’t want to bet like an Average Joe but also lack the wherewithal to set their own lines, what can they do?
Well, a good starting point would be to learn how to analyze Betting Splits.
What are Betting Splits?
Betting Splits are the percentage of bets and dollars on every game across the three major bet types: spread, moneyline and total.
The percentage of bets refers to the percentage of overall tickets placed on the game, while the percentage of dollars or “handle” refers to the percentage of actual money placed on the game.
At VSiN, our Pro Members have 24/7 access to the Betting Splits at two major sportsbooks: DraftKings and Circa.
By analyzing the bet splits and comparing and contrasting the numbers at both books, bettors can cut through the noise and gain an edge by identifying where the public is and where the smart money is leaning. The VSiN Bet Splits page is one of the most trafficked pages on VSiN.com and provides data for all the major US sports, not just the NFL.
Go Contrarian
One of the simplest ways to differentiate yourself from the Average Joes and increase your chances of winning is to take a contrarian approach. This means betting against the public, who more often than not loses, and placing yourself on the side of the house, who always wins in the end.
In order to go contrarian, focus on the percentage of bets column specifically at DraftKings.
Because DraftKings is one of the most popular sportsbooks in the country and pools data from the lion’s share of Average Joe bettors, the percentage of bets column is a good barometer for what the public thinks and where they are leaning. And, because football is predominantly a spread sport, bettors should focus most of their attention on the spread percentage of bets column.
A good cutoff for contrarians is 65% vs 35%. If a team is getting 65% of spread bets or more, that indicates a very “public” play. So, instead of joining the herd and betting with the masses, contrarians would lean toward taking the team receiving 35% of spread bets or less.
Identify Sharp Action
Going contrarian isn’t the end all, be all. It’s a starting point that places you against the public and with the house. The next step is to ensure that you are not just against the drunk guys at the bars, but also with the sharps and professional bettors who win at a high rate and have the respect of the sportsbooks.
In order to identify sharp action, bettors should laser focus on the Circa betting splits. Circa has gained a reputation as a “sharp” book because it sets high limits and accepts big money from respected bettors instead of turning them away.
As a result, it makes sense that data-driven bettors would want to place themselves on the same side as the sharps at Circa.
To do so, bettors can compare the percentage of bets to the percentage of dollars at Circa, looking for “discrepancy” plays where a team is garnering far more money than bets. A good line of demarcation is 10% or more.
So, if the Patriots are a 3-point favorite, receiving 57% of spread bets but 78% of spread dollars at Circa, that would indicate smart money in favor of New England because they are taking in far more money than tickets from the wiseguys in the desert.
Conversely, if the Bengals are a 7-point underdog and receiving 65% of spread bets but only 48% of spread dollars, that would be a red flag that Cincinnati is a public play worth avoiding.
The same philosophy can be used for totals.
If the under is taking in 40% of bets but 70% of dollars (and the line has fallen from 45 to 44.5), bettors can be confident that wiseguys have gotten down on a lower-scoring game.
DraftKings vs Circa
The ultimate goal for data-driven bettors is to use both sportsbooks in tandem in order to provide as much color and texture as possible.
If a team is contrarian at DraftKings, bettors can be confident that they are against the masses. If that same team is showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy at Circa, that gives bettors confidence that they are also a sharp bet for the Vegas pros.
Also, betting splits shouldn’t be taken in a vacuum. They should also be compared to how the line is moving. Ideally, you want the betting splits and line movement to all be on the same page. In other words, the sharp contrarian team receiving “low bets” but “higher dollars” is also taking line movement in their favor.
It’s important to remember that not every contrarian play or sharp discrepancy is guaranteed to win. As always, there is no such thing as a lock. However, by consistently focusing on unpopular teams that are also sharp in Vegas, bettors can elevate their selection process and make more informed decisions using their head and not their heart.
Lastly, keep in mind that the VSiN Betting Splits are subject to change. They are updated every 5 minutes as more action pours in. As a result, bettors should take early bet splits with a grain of salt, as they can change drastically as we get closer to kickoff. For this reason, it’s always recommended to focus more on the betting splits within the last 24 hours leading up to kickoff.
