The 2025 NFL season validated our exercise of searching for turnaround candidates. In last year’s guide, we identified the Bears, Jaguars, Panthers, and Patriots as teams with sleeper appeal.
Chicago, in Year 1 with Ben Johnson on the sidelines, arguably had the toughest job to do, with the NFC North being one of the most competitive divisions in football. The Bears were 100% up to the task, going 11-6 and finishing with two more victories than the rival Packers. The Jaguars had a clearer path to first, as the AFC South is a gettable division year in, year out. Jacksonville ended up edging Houston out, finishing 13-4 in Liam Coen’s first year at the helm. The Panthers were the weakest of the four entering the season, but they still finished atop the NFC South after going 8-9 in the regular season. Lastly, Mike Vrabel’s Patriots, who ended up losing in the Super Bowl, were one of the biggest stories of the year, going from 4-13 in 2024 to 13-4 in 2025. New England also had to hold off an elite Buffalo team to win the AFC East.
It feels like an annual occurrence now. Teams make some changes in the offseason, bring in a new coach, or just build on late-season momentum from the year prior. Then they go out and show out. Well, identifying these teams isn’t as hard as you think. So, we’re running it back in 2026.
We’ll apply the same criteria: teams that finished at or near the bottom of their division in 2025, with a coaching upgrade, a new-look roster, a favorable schedule, or better roster-wide circumstances that suggest a real turnaround. We might not hit on them all, but identifying a few teams can give us exactly the kind of edge this guide is built around.
Here are the best candidates for 2026 — excluding the Lions, who feel too obvious. Do with them what you will. Division prices, win total Overs, alt Overs, and loftier futures are all in play.
New Orleans Saints
Last season, Carolina won the NFC South with an 8-9 record. That speaks to how weak this division is, meaning it’s wide open for anyone to finish atop the standings in 2026. That includes the Saints.
New Orleans actually enters this season with some legitimate buzz. Not many people were paying attention to the Saints last year, but they were second in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.178) from Week 10 until the end of the 2025 regular season. Defensive coordinator Brandon Staley did a remarkable job turning that unit around, and he’ll have more toys to work with this season. New Orleans drafted Christen Miller in the second round of the 2026 NFL Draft, adding some nice size and talent along the defensive line. Staley will also try to get something out of Tyree Wilson, who was the seventh pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Wilson was disappointing with the Raiders, but a change of scenery should help.
The offense is what needs to take a major step forward, but there were signs last year. After making the change from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough, New Orleans’ offense looked much better. Rattler probably wasn’t as bad as the public thinks, and Shough wasn’t quite as good, but the overall unit clearly improved. The Saints went 5-4 in Shough’s final nine games under center in 2025, plus his combination of size and speed gave him more upside than Rattler flashed. All in all, Shough threw for 2,384 yards with 10 touchdowns and six picks on the season, and he also added three scores on the ground. In Year 2 in Kellen Moore’s system, the expectation is that Shough will look even sharper.
New Orleans also did great work providing Shough with help. The team signed Travis Etienne Jr. as a versatile weapon out of the backfield. They also used the No. 8 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on Jordyn Tyson, who has the potential to be a true No. 1 wideout. The tight end room was also upgraded, as the Saints signed Noah Fant and added Oscar Delp in the third round of the draft. Even the offensive line was addressed, as New Orleans signed guard David Edwards away from Buffalo.
The Saints just enter 2026 with some serious momentum, and they have Warren Sharp’s second-easiest strength of schedule for 2026. We could see a major turnaround here.
Tennessee Titans
On the surface, hiring Robert Saleh may not seem like the most inspiring move. His stint with the Jets was extremely disappointing, and it’s not yet clear he can handle the responsibility of being in charge of a whole team. However, Saleh sure knows how to coach a defense, and he was able to bring Brian Daboll in as his offensive coordinator, giving Tennessee a clear offensive identity. That makes this coaching staff way more appealing for a roster that is looking to make a jump in 2026.
Daboll made his mistakes with the Giants, but he also got decent production out of some mediocre offensive units. At times, he had Daniel Jones and Jaxson Dart looking sharp, and it’s pretty easy to envision him getting Cam Ward, the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, right. Ward had a rough rookie season, but he’s clearly a highly-talented passer. Things should look much better in 2026.
Tennessee actually scored at least 24 points in the final six games of the 2025 season, and Ward’s strides as a passer played a big role in that. Well, Ward now has a much better group of weapons to work with. The Titans used the fourth pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on Carnell Tate, who looks like a future stud at wideout. They also signed Wan’Dale Robinson, one of Daboll’s favorites, to be their receiver out of the slot. With a solid offensive line, a great group of pass-catchers, and some good rushers out of the backfield, the Titans could flirt with being a league-average offense.
The Titans also completely overhauled their defense. Not only did they hire Saleh, but big moves were made to address the talent up front. It started with Tennessee swapping T’Vondre Sweat for Jermaine Johnson, giving Saleh a strong pass-rushing threat on the edge. The Titans also signed another Saleh favorite, bringing John Franklin-Myers in on a big three-year deal. Tennessee also happened to address the secondary, signing Alontae Taylor and Cordale Flott to give the team a new set of starters at corner.
If things click faster than expected, there’s no reason Tennessee can’t turn heads. The Titans have a reasonable schedule, and they play in the weakest division in the AFC. They’re exactly the type of team bettors should look to target.
Washington Commanders
Many people like the Giants to go from worst to first in the NFC East, but the Commanders feel more like the team poised to make a big turnaround from 2025 to 2026.
In many ways, including Washington doesn’t feel right here, as this team was 12-5 and won the division just two seasons ago. The Commanders also went all the way to the NFC Championship Game that year. However, Washington isn’t getting much love from the national media, and the betting odds suggest this could be another disappointing season. Not so fast, my friend!
The Commanders do have a difficult schedule, plus they haven’t done much to address an uninspiring group of pass-catching weapons. But this team should be in much better shape when looking at the coaching situation, as Dan Quinn now has David Blough running his offense and Daronte Jones running his defense. Both coaches are expected to do some good things this season. Blough is viewed as an up-and-coming offensive mastermind, while Jones was just helping Brian Flores run some of the league’s best defenses in Minnesota.
The Commanders should also get a much better season out of Jayden Daniels. After finishing fifth in the NFL in PFF’s QB rankings in 2024, Daniels was 18th among qualified signal-callers in his sophomore season. Injuries really played a role in that, with Daniels dealing with knee, hamstring, and elbow issues in 2025. With some better luck in the health department, he should get back to torching defenses as both a passer and a runner, helping to significantly raise the floor and ceiling of his team.
If Sonny Styles, Washington’s 2026 first-round pick (No. 7 overall), lives up to expectations, there isn’t much preventing the Commanders from riding the same 2024 formula to success. Elite offense, average defense. That’s all it will take.
