Early NFL Week 7 Best Bets and Predictions from Mike Somich:

We ended Week 6 and immediately got some Week 7 news via a trade. The Davante Adams saga ended Tuesday when the Raiders shipped him to the Jets. What does that do to the Jets’ rating? Not too much honestly. He will definitely help the offense as another receiver Aaron Rodgers trusts and moves Allen Lazard to WR3.

I was just as interested to see the offensive adjustments in Monday night’s game against the Bills. With a new play caller, we saw the Jets use motion more than 75% of the time, which was vastly different than the 29% from the week before. In the current version of the NFL, motion has become a key to unlocking pre-snap coverage and providing quarterbacks with more knowledge before the snap. Rodgers has traditionally been against it, and it was one of the reasons Green Bay and coach Matt LaFleur moved on from him, so that high of a rate is important to note. Keep an eye on the offense this week to see if it is a systematic change or just a one-off.

 

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Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made after the Week 6 games:

Move them up: Tampa Bay Buccaneers          

In a week dominated by favorites, rankings are always an interesting conundrum. You do not want to overreact to games like the Steelers-Raiders and upgrade the Steelers too much. It puts you out in front of the market and traps your numbers into plays you may not actually like.

This week’s biggest upgrade landed on the Buccaneers. Yes, they rolled the Saints, that’s wonderful and all, but at this point, when you look at the body of work, this offense has to be in the top 8 in the NFL. Baker Mayfield is cooking and Chris Goodwin is back to the receiver we saw in years past.

The running game, which was not good last year, also has been energized by rookie Bucky Irving and now has explosive capabilities.

The defense is also starting to get healthy. Keep an eye on cornerback Jamel Dean this week, but outside of that, the injury report is clean for this veteran-laden team.

Move them down: Dallas Cowboys

It’s the Cowboys, it’s just got to be the Cowboys. Was the spot bad for them this week versus the Lions? Sure, but you still have to do better than 47-9. I wish I could point to a main issue here, but it is everything.

This is a bottom-10 coaching staff from the head coach on down. They don’t look prepared for what they are facing week in and week out on both sides of the ball. The decision-making is awful, why are we kicking a field goal down 28 in the third quarter? Mike McCarthy just looks lost on the sideline.

From a player’s perspective, there is just no talent here. The defense is banged up and cannot create pressure or cover. When it is not CeeDee Lamb making plays, no one is. The offensive line is worse than in years past and the running backs room is a joke.

They have a bye to try to fix what I see as unfixable problems, but out of the bye, it’s at San Francisco, at Atlanta, vs. Philadelphia Eagles and vs. Houston. Good luck.

Early Week 7 NFL Best Bet:

All my Over teams got smashed in the market as we have finally seen corrections on the Colts and Panthers. Make sure you are tuning into “Ready, Set, Bet” on Sunday night. We were able to lock in an Over 48 in Seattle-Atlanta, which is now 50.5 to 51. I would still play that at 50.5, but that is the ceiling.

For this week’s bet, let’s get in front of a game. I would surprised if it does not kick at 3 or more. The Chargers are a team that I do not love, but the matchup this week versus the Cardinals is too good to pass up. The Chargers should be able to move the football on the ground and through the air versus a banged-up Cardinals defense. On the other side of the ball, the Arizona offensive line will have issues against a good Chargers pass rush. This is also a Monday night game, so expect favorite money to come in late. Let’s take the 2.5 while it lasts.

Week 7 NFL Best Bet: Chargers -2.5

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