Michael Lombardi: A look ahead to Week 12 in the NFL:

When the clock ticked down to 00, and Al Michaels gathered his gear to head back to Los Angeles. there was optimism in Baltimore for the first time all week. The Ravens, coming off their loss to Pittsburgh, received a gift from the Browns, who ended the Steelers’ five-game win streak. The loss made Pittsburgh vulnerable, creating a wonderful opportunity for the Ravens to win the North. I am not sure the Ravens expected this tightly wrapped present from their NFL archrivals, the Browns, as they headed into work on Friday to prepare for their game against the Chargers. It will create a great sense of momentum among the Ravens players, a great sense of concentration in their prep, and, most of all, make the game a must-win. 

The window of opportunity for the Ravens is only good if they can win the Harbaugh Bowl, as brothers John and Jim face off against one another. All season, the Ravens have given away games, from being a toe short of tying the Chiefs, a blown fourth quarter in a Raiders loss to start the season 0-2, and a dropped Kyle Hamilton interception to seal the win vs the Browns. Now they have a little life. With a win on Sunday night, they sit one game behind the Steelers, with the Steelers toughest part of the schedule in front of them. 

 

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

Yes, the Ravens have a tough road, facing the Chargers and the Eagles before their week fourteen bye.  Once they come back from the bye, they have the Giants and Houston on the road with Pittsburgh and Cleveland at home.  The Steelers still must go to Cincinnati, play the Browns again, then face Philadelphia with a rematch with Baltimore before ending the season at home vs. Kansas City and Cincinnati. 

For the Ravens, nothing else matters unless they can beat big brother Jim. For me, this is the Lamar MVP game. Lamar is great as a three-point favorite or less, amassing a 25-6 record. He is deadly at night, going 19-5 straight up and having the best win percentage of any quarterback going back to Kenny Stabler at 15-5-1. If Lamar loses the week before and is a slight favorite (3 points or less), he is 6-0.  Powerful numbers to go against once you removed the brotherly battle. 

Which is important to remove. This isn’t about the brothers (which plays off a line from The Godfather, Part 2, when Vincenzo Pentangeli came to watch his brother Frank testify). It’s about the teams. The Chargers have been a good team, playing complementary football and not beating themselves. They will struggle to run the ball on the Ravens, forcing them to play outside their comfort zone and throw more than they want. The Chargers are 30th in the NFL in the least passing attempts as they protect the ball, number one in the least interceptions thrown, and number two overall in the least offensive turnovers. 

Both brothers know how to win games, both understand how to play complementary football and most of all, both know the winner will need mental and physical toughness for four quarters.  And for me, all signs point to Lamar on Sunday night. 

NFL QB Ratings

TOP FIVE

  1. Josh Allen – When the game is on the line, expect Allen to have the ball.
  2. Lamar Jackson – I expect him to have an MVP game against the Chargers. 
  3. Jared Goff – I loved his interview about the standard of performance and not worrying about the opponent. 
  4. Joe Burrow – Have a great season, and it’s still not good enough for the Bengals to win games. 
  5. Jaden Daniels – Daniels needs to run the ball and use his feet to make plays. 

BOTTOM FIVE

Gardner Minshew – Played better last week. Needs to have a run game to help.
Caleb Williams – Had his best game of the year last week. Can he handle the Vikings’ pressure?                  
Anthony Richardson – Can he put two good games together?
Will Levis – Levis is now 0-5 SU/ATS in divisional games, failing to cover the spread by 8.8 PPG.
Tommy DeVito – Will DeVito be able to handle the Todd Bowles pressure? 

2024 NFL Power Ratings 

My ratings are based on numbers, no bias or eye test involved. I use 18 categories that I believe are related to winning games. No subjectivity is involved, so as teams improve in certain areas, they improve in my ratings. I have been doing this for five years. During that time, there have never been as many poor teams, nor have there been as many good teams numerically. Eleven teams have great numbers, and ten have horrible numbers. The imbalance of teams is on display when betting on the dogs, which has not been profitable this season.

  1. Detroit
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Buffalo
  4. Pittsburgh
  5. Baltimore
  6. Minnesota
  7. Washington
  8. Green Bay
  9. Denver
  10. Kansas City
  11. LA Chargers
  12. LA Rams
  13. Houston
  14. Arizona
  15. San Francisco
  16. Tampa Bay
  17. Chicago
  18. Seattle
  19. NY Jets
  20. Miami
  21. New Orleans
  22. New England
  23.  NY Giants
  24. Indianapolis
  25. Cincinnati
  26. Tennessee
  27. Cleveland
  28. Atlanta 
  29. Las Vegas
  30. Dallas
  31. Jacksonville
  32. Carolina

Hall and Oates Play: I Can’t Go For That 

Tommy DeVito is back. Don’t ask me why the Giants have decided to appoint him as the starter, but nonetheless, he is. They bypassed Drew Locke, who they paid five million dollars and was their backup for the entire season. This shift from starter Daniel Jones was expected because of his injury guarantees for next season. Losing to Carolina can create a heightened sense of panic, which occurred when the Giants arrived back from Germany. Naturally, the line moved from the Bucs laying 3.5 to now 6, all because of Tommy Cutlets. My largest concern taking the Bucs is how the Giants will react to Tommy.  Many players went on the record supporting Jones, which makes me want to bet the Bucs. But when you examine DeVito’s six-game starter career, you see that he is 2-0 at home straight up and 3-3 vs the spread. He is 56th overall in EPA, slightly better than Bryce Young and slightly below Zach Wilson. Ouch. Call the men who made many of my favorite albums, Daryl and John. I ain’t touching this one. 

Line of the Week

The Broncos have struggled over the last nine years against the Raiders.  When they faced them in Week 5, Bo Nix broke the spell with a 34-18 win. Since 2017, the Broncos are 2-12 ATS. Prior to their win, they lost eight straight to the Raiders. The Broncos haven’t beaten the Raiders in Oakland or Vegas since October of 2015 behind Peyton Manning. The Raiders haven’t been swept in a season series by Denver since 2014.  So why is this line Broncos -6?  I understand the Raiders aren’t good, and Denver is showing signs of being a potential playoff team, yet 6 seems too many points to lay. 

Enjoy the games.

For more NFL Week 12 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 12 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR