Detroit’s Keys to NFL Success

This Sunday, we have the NFL’s version of the Final Four. Four of the best teams in the league, who had to overcome obstacles, injuries and endured the long marathon of the season, reach the best weekend of the year. It’s worth noting reaching this game is a measuring stick of a career. It’s damn hard to get here, and if winning the Super Bowl is the ultimate judgment, then few will ever feel their career was rewarding.  

How many Final Four games you reach is far more revealing than how many Super Bowl wins, which is a herculean achievement. All four teams have more to do, so they are not interested in taking a bow. A month from now, they will. 

 

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Meanwhile, these teams are worth studying from several different angles to find the keys to NFL success. How did they manage their salary cap? How did they construct their team? How many blue and red chip players are on the team? And most importantly, what was the main reason they reached this prestigious game? 

Studying the Detroit Lions will be a great learning experience to find the keys to NFL success, as they finally hired a coach who gave them an identity, hired a general manager to find players to match their identity, and have coaches on both sides of the ball who are creative and make the players better. Understanding how they reached the Final Four has more to do with their resolve, mental and physical toughness, and ability to finish games strong than their true talent. The Lions are a team that keeps fighting and never backs down, and even when facing tough challenges, they find a way to overcome them. Without those qualities, the Lions wouldn’t be here. The last two weeks, they needed every ounce of their competitive drive to finish off the game as the winner.   

How Detroit Has Defied the Stat Sheet   

In the past two games, the Lions have been far from perfect. While watching their two games, there is a prevailing feeling the other team is the better team, even though the Lions were the winners. In both games, Detroit made the critical plays at the most critical times, holding off the Rams and the Bucs. Peeling back the statistics, the outcome looks very different than the numbers. 

For example, the Lions have allowed their opponent to average 4.9 yards per attempt running the ball while they have averaged 3.8. Their opponents averaged 14.0 yards per pass completion, and they averaged 10.8. Opposing quarterback have a 111.5 rating against them, while Jared Goff has a 106.9. Detroit has been outgained per play, 7.2 to 5.8. Yet, the Lions have run 11 more plays than their opponent, have scored four more points in the first half, and have a +4 margin in first downs gain, 49-45.

The Rams were the tenth-best passing team in the NFL last season, the Bucs the 17th, and each team averaged 338 yards passing on the Lions while playing on the road. 

Where the Lions have won is they have been excellent on third down, holding their opponent to 33.3%. They have not turned the ball over on offense, nor have they missed a field goal, while their opponents have turned the ball over twice and have missed a field goal, giving them a +3 in turnover takeaways in the two games. 

Detroit has also been effective in the red zone, 6-for-7 in the two games, and 4-for-5 in goal-to-go situations. The main reason they defeated the Rams was they held the Rams to 0-for-3 in the red zone and 0-for-1 in goal to go. The Rams had to settle for three points three different times, which is why they lost by a point. Overall, their red zone defense is 3-for-6 and 1-for-2 in goal to go. 

Another factor in why the Lions have reached the Final Four lies in their ability to close out games with their offense. In the Rams game, they never allowed the Rams to get the ball back with 4:07 left in the fourth quarter.

In the Bucs game, they scored a touchdown to make the game 31-17 with 6:22 to go in the game. They could not run the clock out when they got the ball back up seven with 4:37 left in the game, but they got three first downs and used two minutes and 38 seconds of the clock. Had they not done that, we might have been a two-point play away from overtime.   

Their offense has a Mariano Rivera-like quality to close out the game with their aggressive playcalling and clutch playmaking, which offsets their porous defense. How bad is their defense playing right now? The Lions have allowed five teams to gain over 400 yards during the year—two occurred in the last two weeks. 

Teams can overcome a great deal playing at home in front of a passionate fan base like the Lions have at Ford Field. Now comes the hard part as they have to travel and play on the road against a top-level offense and defense in the 49ers. 

The Lions were 6-3 on the road this year, (should be 7-2 with the win in Dallas) and average 24.1 points per game, allowing 24.6. They are +5 in the turnover takeaway column while playing on the road and have only held one team below 200 yards passing (the Bears, sorry Bill Adee). 

Can Detroit Defeat San Francisco?

For the Lions to win in San Francisco, they will need to play at a higher level defensively, and their offense must play mistake-free. Goff is 3-6 vs the 49ers in his career, with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. His 6.44 yards per attempt in those nine games ranks as one of the lowest outputs of his career, and his last win in Levi Stadium happened in 2018. Overall, he is 5-3 in the playoffs, 2-1 on the road, and has thrown seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. Goff protects the ball, and if the Lions give him time, he can make the 49ers secondary look bad. 

Detroit has no margin for error in this game. They will struggle to slow down the 49ers’ offense and won’t win the stat sheet. The keys to NFL success for the Lions are to win the situations: red zone, third down, two minutes, and the middle eight. It will be a huge challenge for their team, one I am sure they will embrace with their awesome competitive spirit. Teams that have mental and physical toughness should never be counted out, regardless of what the stats might say. 

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