Michael Lombardi: Why NFL coaching matters.
During the Miami Heat Boston Celtics series, the TNT crew of Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Shaq and Charles Barkley were breaking down the game and discussing the impact of the coaching. Shaq didn’t think coaching matters at all, whereas Barkley was strongly opposed to this rationale. Shaq believes the game centers on the players’ talent, and Barkley believes talented players, with great coaching, will prevail. Naturally, I am on the side of Barkley. Not because I have been a fan since the moment I walked into the Auburn gym in 1984 and saw this incredibly explosive athlete dominate, or that my favorite team the 76ers drafted him. I am on Barkley’s side because throughout all my years in the league, coaching matters. It matters in the NBA, and it matters tremendously in the NFL.
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We tend to focus on the players’ movement during the off-season, which is critical. Yet, the right coach in the right place can make a greater impact. This is not to undermine the importance of talent. Rather, it highlights that a pristinely-coordinated offensive or defensive scheme bolsters talent. When the scheme is perfectly suited to the player’s skill set, his value rises, his production increases, and his impact is greater.
Look no further than the impact of good coaching and play calling had for the Giants. Last year, the G-Men had its first winning record and playoff season in six years. They improved from 31st to 15th in points scored – the third-biggest improvement in the league last year (behind Jacksonville and Detroit), and they improved from 23rd to 17th in points allowed. The Giants also had the fourth-biggest improvement in scoring differential in the league last year – improving from 29th to 16th. And 2022 was the Giants’ highest offensive ranking since 2015. They achieved all of this with essentially the same roster Joe Judge and his staff coached the year before. Shaq is wrong. Coaching matters—a lot.
Every football fan, novice or experienced, thinks they understand great play calling. If the play worked, then it’s a great call. If it didn’t, most scream, “Why would we call that?” No one knows what the “that” is or how “that” failed. Bad results get filed under dumb playing. Great results get the coach a “Genius” label and a fast track toward the head coaching interview circuit. Great play calling isn’t limited to positive results. Avoiding a bad play is as important as a great result. Shifting from a disaster play to a decent one is part of the strategy needed within the system. If you don’t believe me, go back to the final thirteen seconds of the Buffalo Bills/Kansas City Chiefs 2021 Championship game. Bills fans would love to have a “do-over” on their defensive play calls. And if we, as bettors, don’t understand the coaching matchups each week, we will want a few “do-overs.”
When you break down the games for each week, it’s important to place each team’s offensive coordinator versus their defensive coordinator and research their battles. Their history will give you a good predictor of what could occur.
Let’s take a Week One game: the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Miami Dolphins. The battle between student and teacher. Miami defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is the teacher, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is the student. Add Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen “Joy Stick” Moore to the equation, and this promises to be a battle between coaches that perfectly understand each other’s scheme.
Last season, the Dolphins without Fangio played right into Staley’s hand by not being able to run the ball. Remember, the Fins finished 31st in rushing attempts last season, even though their head coach Mike McDaniels is a run game guru. Not trying to run the ball against the Chargers in their split safety look was a huge mistake, one that McDaniels won’t make again. Why? Because every day this spring and summer, the Dolphins’ offense will be practicing against the Chargers’ defensive concepts. And the Chargers’ defense will be practicing against the Dolphins’ offensive concepts. McDaniels will review his call sheet with Fangio and devise a passing game that will provide more than 10 completions—which is what occurred in their game last season.
Fangio knows and understands Moore. Remember their game in November of 2021 when the 6-1 Cowboys were hosting the 4-4 Broncos? Denver’s defense dominated the day, allowing the Cowboys only 14 first downs and 16 fourth-quarter points all scored when the game was essentially over. Fangio knows Moore. He knows how he thinks and how his scheme operates. So when handicapping the game, look at this season, and focus on the past coaching matchups.
Going into the 2023 season, there are six first-time coordinators. Eric Bieniemy has held the title as an offensive coordinator in the past, yet this is the first time he will be calling plays on his own, and that’s important to understand. With Chiefs head coach Andy Reid setting up the game plan and attack, Bieniemy worked within those confines, which isn’t a knock. It limits us from understanding how he will call games, which makes him a first-time coordinator.
The Cardinals have a first-time head coach in Jonathan Gannon, and two first-time coordinators in Drew Petzing for offense and Nick Rallis for defense. When breaking down the Cardinals coaching matchups, use Gannon’s prior history as a coordinator in Philadelphia, which will come in handy when understanding how he will approach the opening game against the Commanders. With far better personnel in Philadelphia, Gannon split the season series against Washington. Gannon relies on his front to supply pressure and stop the run. If he takes the same approach in Arizona, which he will, then Washington will be able to control the game—even though we are uncertain of Bieniemy’s play calling. Gannon isn’t complex, and unless he has superior talent, the scheme isn’t going to create problems. In most games this season, the Cards will not win the coaching match-up.
When handicapping comparing the numbers, the DVOA, the last game has importance. Yet, understanding the coordinator matchup page can give you a slight edge. And when you research the coaches as you research the players, this can shed new light on the game breakdowns.
