Michael Lombardi – Will the Miami Dolphins’ playoff hopes get frozen in Green Bay:

We all love Thanksgiving for different reasons. Even if you are not a turkey enthusiast, the long weekend combining family, football and food make this holiday the best. Since the NFL decided to add a third game to the normal rotation, we can overindulge on leftovers as we drink our way into the night watching football. Who has it better than us at holiday time? 

This year, the NFL provided us with a great backdrop by setting the evening game in Lambeau Field, as the Packers face the Miami Dolphins. Is there anything better than nighttime in Green Bay, with all the cheeseheads and the team’s history seeping through the broadcast? You can almost hear Vince Lombardi screaming, “Grab, grab, grab1” You can almost see Paul Horning running the Packer sweep, Reggie White humping the opponent’s right tackle, or LeRoy Butler doing the leap. We love the traditions of Thanksgiving, and there is no better place to honor those rituals and the memories of the game than in Titletown.

 

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The makers of the NFL schedule issued a challenge to the Miami Dolphins. Can they handle the cold, the elements, the short week, the hostile Packer crowd? Can they beat a good team on the road, or can they only win at home against lesser opponents, as they have the past two weeks beating up on the Raiders and New England?  I am not making this narrative up. Head coach Mike McDaniel is 4-10 after the fall turns to winter, and we welcome December into our lives. Tua has laughed off his play in the cold—with no evidence supporting his dismissal. He claims it’s a false narrative, which isn’t really the case.  It’s real until he can win a big game when the temp dips below 35 degrees. 

The Miami Dolphins aren’t built for the outdoors once November hits. They love speed and a pure surface for optimum footing—two things you won’t have on Thursday night.  Miami is a nickel finesse offense, no matter how often they want to deny the label. They are 25th in the NFL in converting third-and-short, 31st in converting fourth-and-1, and the NFL’s worst team in converting fourth downs in general. Even though I claim they are a nickel-based offense, they rank tied for 26th in two-minute offense scoring. Now, in fairness, Tua missed four games, which has caused the numbers to get off-center. In the last eight games, they rank 30th in the NFL in big plays (plays gaining over 20 yards), and overall, they rank 31st in the area.

Now, they are traveling to the frozen tundra, where every visiting team refuses to wear seven-inch spikes, which causes them to slip and slide as if they were auditioning for the ice capades. Skill players hate the seven-inch spikes—they’re too heavy and cumbersome, and it feels like their feet are planted into the ground too far. On this field, it’s mandatory. Last week, we witnessed the 49ers slip and slide all over, missing more tackles in the first half than they missed all season. Unless you have the right footing, playing in Green Bay is hard, giving the Packers a true home field. Side note: the Packers’ practice field is identical to the field at Lambeau, so they understand how to handle the slippery terrain. 

Miami has improved since the return of Tua. This game will give us an indication of how much they have improved. Anthony Weaver, their third defensive coordinator in three years, has chosen to install a style of defense that isn’t challenging, daring the offense to be disciplined and take the short throws. Weaver’s main objective is not to allow the big play. Don’t let the ball be thrown over their head. Give them the short stuff and make the offense string eight to ten good plays together. This philosophy is why the Fins are 24th in the NFL in allowing yardage on first down, and making bad quarterbacks look proficient.  With the offense being able to get the lead, this philosophy allows the defense to hide their deficiencies. Miami struggles to tackle, ranking 25th in yards after the catch allowed, and they struggle to rush the passer, ranking 26th in the NFL in sacks. They have improved rushing as first-round pick Chop Robinson has shown flashes of being a difference-maker, and old-timer Calais Campbell still has his mojo. Going against a good Packer offensive line will be a huge challenge for Miami.

Another element that makes the late-night watching more interesting is the addition of Robert Saleh to the Packers’ defensive staff.  He isn’t coordinating the defense or calling plays. He is offering advice on the opponent, and since the Packers only play the Fins once every four years, understanding the rhythm passing game of Miami is critical. Saleh has played Miami enough to give Jeff Hafley, the Packers’ defensive coordinator, the best perspective, along with helping him understand the game speed of the offense, which is hard to feel from tape and only appreciated when the ball gets kicked off.  Saleh knows the places Tua wants to throw, how he reads the coverages, and why he can throw the ball so quickly. All this knowledge will help and be a good catch-up course on a short week. 

If the Miami Dolphins are going to become the 7th seed, this game is a must-win.  It’s also a must-prove-it game to all of us doubters (me included) that it no longer makes sense to bet against Tua when the frigid air arrives. I’m not ready to take the plunge. Tua will have to prove to me he can. 

Enjoy the games and enjoy those leftovers.

For more NFL Week 13 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 13 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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