NFL best bets for Week 7 from Steve Makinen

October 21, 2023

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NFL Week 6 Best Bets

It’s continued to be a solid start to the NFL season with my Best Bets, having gone 24-15 ATS to date after last week’s 5-2 outcome. On totals, I’m 3-0 so far, and I have two more lined up for this week, as well as five sides, with two of those wins being on totals. At 61.5% right now, I credit the new VSiN feature, the NFL Analytics Report. It keeps me apprised of almost all the info I use to handicap games. I feel like I am not overlooking key factors anymore.

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Cleveland at Indianapolis

The betting obsession this week in the NFL ranks surrounds totals after an alarming number of games went Under this past week. Naturally, bettors have gravitated to Unders again this week because of it. In fact, all of the NFL propaganda this week has revolved around how low-scoring the games are now and what could have possibly happened.

Naturally, the first game of the week on Thursday night (Jacksonville/New Orleans) flew over the posted total. Does that mean we will see a rash of Overs on Sunday? Possibly, as a majority of the handle and volume of bets at DraftKings as of Friday saw leans to Unders, and we know these public bettors don’t win with regularity.

Still, I’d rather pick and choose the games I think have a chance to pop offensively, and I think this Cleveland-Indianapolis game has that potential. First, the Browns expect QB Deshaun Watson back, and he naturally makes the offense more potent. Even without him last week, they put up 19 points and 334 yards on quite possibly the NFL’s best team.

Second, with QB Anthony Richardson now out for the season, the Colts can focus on growing behind Gardner Minshew. It can be argued they are a better team offensively with him anyway. People overlook that the Colts have scored 20+ points in every game this season and are averaging 23.3 PPG under new HC Shane Steichen. Things can even get better than that now. With a low total of 40.5 in a game featuring two capable offenses, I’ll fade the public and go Over.

Play Cleveland-Indianapolis Over 40.5 +/- 1 point

Cleveland at Indianapolis

We have a potential letdown scenario in Indianapolis this Sunday as Cleveland comes off its emotional, huge upset win over San Francisco on Sunday. Typically, that type of victory would tend to galvanize a team. However, a big wrinkle is thrown into the formula of the Browns’ cohesiveness in that QB Deshaun Watson is returning. Outward or not, there has to be some internal resentment of Watson, his pay rate, and his inability to stay healthy in 2023.

There is a laundry list of trends with Cleveland lately as to why you should bet against them, but I’ll keep it simple and focus on the 14-27 ATS record as a favorite. The role of road favorite is even more rare, however. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has been better than many people expected at 3-3 and scoring 23.3 PPG, having put up at least 20+ in every game. That in itself is noteworthy, as home dogs that can score are much more valuable. This is also a far different environment than Cleveland is accustomed to, as they are usually outdoors. With home teams winning the last four ATS in this head-to-head series, I’ll hunt for #5 in a row.

Take Indianapolis +3, with a slight sprinkle on the moneyline as well

Buffalo at New England

Continuing the focus on totals and why some games may turn out to be much more high-scoring than the public suspects, let’s take a look at the Buffalo-New England matchup. We have a Bills’ offense that may be ready to explode after scoring just 34 points over the last two games following a three-game stretch in which they put up 41 PPG.

On the opposite sideline is New England, featuring an offense that has floundered all season long but did put up 17 points last week and showed signs of being able to move the ball on the ground. That would, of course, take much of the onus off of QB Mac Jones, a welcomed sight at this point.

The recent history of this rivalry also suggests that this could be a get-healthy opportunity for head coach Sean McDermott’s team, as they have put up 34.8 PPG on the Patriots’ D in the last four outings.

Putting my Effective Stats to the case, New England has averaged 5.2 points more than their opponents so far allowed. New England’s defense yields 2.7 points more to its opponents than the average. The two projections for the Bills would then equate to 30.5 and 31.5. Let’s take the average and say it’s reasonable to expect them to score 31. If that happens, how does the game go Under 40? I don’t see it. As of Friday, this game had the most significant handle at DK on the Under, too.

Let’s go Buffalo-New England Over 40 +/- 1 point

Pittsburgh at LA Rams

One of my better picks in the last few weeks came two weeks ago when Pittsburgh upset Baltimore at home. It was “against the grain” because of the way Pittsburgh was playing at the time. However, I surmised that going into their bye week, it was a crucial contest for the Steelers and that the Ravens would thus get their best effort.

That’s exactly what happened as head coach Mike Tomlin’s team came from behind impressively to win, thus carrying a ton of momentum into their bye week. Instead of questioning themselves, they could push forward knowing they were a capable playoff contender, get healthy, and get ready for the Rams, who they have won four in a row ATS.

They have a history of faring well out of the bye week under Tomlin as well, having won their last six in that capacity. I really don’t look at the Steelers the same way I might have three weeks ago, and now, in the underdog role against an average Rams team, you have to like their chances to at least cover the number on Sunday. Pittsburgh is 27-13 ATS as an underdog since 2018, so this is a welcomed spot for them. On top of that, Pitt is on a 5-0 ATS run on the West Coast, including a win at Las Vegas in Week 3. With heavy money and bet volume in on LA at DK, I’ll fade that action.

Let’s go Pittsburgh +3 with +/- 0.5 points ok as well

Green Bay at Denver

There is an unusually low amount of system plays available on this week’s NFL Analytics Report, as there were no extreme performances last week, no rematch games this week, and no teams on bye next week. That is a true rarity.

However, the one area where we do have some analytical system data to take advantage of is in the post-bye week scenarios, and both of the angles point towards Green Bay against struggling Denver. The Packers are just 2-3 but still installed in the road favorite role this week as they travel west to take on head coach Sean Payton and the Broncos.

Here are the two systems: 1) Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week (103-42 SU & 88-55-2 ATS since 1999) 2) Same road favorite role out of bye week vs. nonconference opponents. (31-13-1 ATS since 2000). Would I play a game because of two systems that could change even if we see a line move toward the Broncos before kickoff?

Well, maybe, but I also put a ton of stock into the fact that RB Aaron Jones looks to be healthy again for the Packers. Anyone who watches them as intently as I do (as an owner, haha) knows full well that this offense is an entirely different animal without his breakaway ability. Defenses have been fine giving up short runs to AJ Dillon to focus on making the passing game difficult for first-year QB Jordan Love. Jones helps both the running and passing games. Most experts are making shallow assessments of the Packers without that consideration. At 2-3, ask yourself why Green Bay is favored here.

Take Green Bay -1 (-1.5 or pick ‘em is fine too)

Miami at Philadelphia

In the big games of the NFL throughout the regular season, I think one of the most important factors to consider, especially when the won-lost records are similar, is which team is carrying the better momentum, or perhaps better said, which team is clicking more. At this point, I think it is indisputable that the Dolphins are playing better, especially offensively. Last week, in the loss at New York, QB Jalen Hurts literally looked lost for much of the game, perhaps impacted by the pressure the Jets front line was putting on him.

Meanwhile, Miami went down 14-0 to Carolina, only to erupt for 35 consecutive points and eventually end up winning 42-21. It was the fourth time in six games that the Dolphins topped the 30-point mark, and they are scoring 37.2 PPG on the season. That is 11.4 PPG superior to the Eagles.

While there is an interesting trend on the Analytics Report suggesting the best offensive teams struggle on Sunday Night Football, there are also three other angles indicating that it’s better to be the small underdog in these games and its better to be coming off of a win when hitting the primetime spotlight: SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 7-16 SU and ATS (30.4%) in their last 23 tries against teams off a win. Throw in the fact that the underdogs are on a 5-1 ATS run in the Miami-Philadelphia head-to-head series. I think the better team right now is the underdog here, and the amount of $$ handle at DraftKings disagrees with me. I like that.

Play Miami +2.5, and maybe we can push it to +3 by kickoff

San Francisco at Minnesota

What is the most public bet game of the week as of Friday? Naturally, it’s the team that most bettors believe is the best in the league: the 49ers. Are they in a great covering spot for their game? Not at all, as they have to travel to Minnesota for a Monday night game, looking to bounce back from a stunning loss on the road as near double-digit favorites. Sounds like a team that may be questioning itself at this point.

Regardless, over 80% of DK’s handle and bet volume is behind the 49ers to cover a fat 7-point road chalk line. Remember this doozy from the DK Betting Splits systems: When the majority handle and number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) and 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively last season.

This has been a home-dominated series of late, as hosts have won the last five ATS in this head-to-head series. Throw in the MNF trends that home dogs are 11-6-1 ATS in the last 18, and teams with the better record are just 17-29-2 in the last 48, and I think we have the makings for a big public loss.

Play Minnesota ATS at +7 or anything +/- 1 point

For more system matches and key trends, check out the Week 7 NFL Analytics Report.