NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year 2025 Odds, History, and Predictions

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year 2025:

After a year in which six quarterbacks and seven wide receivers were drafted in the first round, and 14 offensive players before the first defensive player, we had a much more balanced draft in 2025. There were 17 offensive players taken and 15 defensive players. Of those 17 offensive players, there were only three quarterbacks and two wide receivers.

So, that means we may have the chance to buck a few trends this year. We had two first-round running backs, a position that hasn’t won this award since 2018. We could also have our first Offensive Rookie of the Year from outside the first round since 2017.

One would think it takes a lot to win this award as a quarterback because the guys that play right away are often drafted to bad teams with bad offensive lines. While that is true, four of the last six winners have been QBs.

Wide receivers have the other two wins in the last six seasons, but Ja’Marr Chase (2021) was something of an exception, in that the last WR to win prior to him was Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014. Before that, you have to go back to Percy Harvin in 2009.

Outliers are definitely a possibility, but let’s look at the last 10 Offensive Rookie of the Year winners and attempt to get a baseline for the stats and the circumstances that are required to be in the running.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Winners

Players: Jayden Daniels, CJ Stroud, Garrett Wilson, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Dak Prescott, Todd Gurley

By Position: 5 QB, 3 RB, 2 WR

By Draft Position (Round.Pick): 1.2;1.2; 1.10; 1.5; 1.6; 1.1; 1.2; 3.67 (Kamara); 4.135 (Prescott); 1.10

Eight of the last 10 have been first-round picks and all eight were top-10 picks. Opportunity matters as much as anything. First-round picks on bad teams, almost regardless of position, are a lock to start.

First-place votes (L5 years): 48 (Daniels); 48 (Stroud); 18 (Wilson, runner-up Kenneth Walker III had 19); 42 (Chase); 41 (Herbert)

Nobody has been unanimous since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 with all 48 votes. 

Also, team success isn’t exactly a prerequisite. The Texans, Bengals, Saints, and Cowboys were all division winners within the last 10 years, but the Commanders, Jets, Chargers, Cardinals, Giants, and Rams were not. Of those six non-division winners, the Commanders are the only team to make the playoffs. 

Stats of the Winners

Jayden Daniels (2024)
For the second straight year, the No. 2 overall pick and second QB off the board won this award. Daniels had 4,459 total yards and 31 total touchdowns in leading the Commanders to the playoffs. Daniels got 48 of the 49 first-place votes, as Brock Bowers got the other one.

CJ Stroud (2023)
Stroud started 15 of the team’s 17 games and had 499 pass attempts with a 23/5 TD/INT ratio. He led the league in INT% and passing yards per game with 273.9.

Garrett Wilson (2022)
Wilson played in all 17 games and had 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns. Former Ohio State teammate Chris Olave was second among rookies with 1,042 receiving yards and finished fourth in the OROY voting. Wilson was 15th in receiving yards overall.

Ja’Marr Chase (2021)
The Joe Burrow connection definitely helped Chase here, as the rookie had 81 catches for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns. It was arguably the best rookie season in this generation for a wide receiver. He was fourth in the NFL in receiving yards and third in touchdowns, which was definitely worthy of breaking the WR drought.

Justin Herbert (2020)
Herbert had a 31/10 TD/INT ratio and started 15 games in his rookie season. He threw for just under 290 yards per game and 4,336 yards total. Only Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Josh Allen threw for more yards and Herbert also finished 10th in TD passes.

Kyler Murray (2019)
Murray threw for 3,722 and ran for another 544 in his rookie year. In total, he accounted for 24 total touchdowns across 16 starts. He was the most-sacked QB in the NFL, but still did enough to garner 26.5 of the 50 first-place votes. That was a weak crop for rookies, but Murray was certainly the most impactful.

Saquon Barkley (2018)
Barkley was a Pro Bowler in his rookie year and led the NFL in yards from scrimmage with 2,028. He ran for 1,307 and added 721 more on 91 receptions and 121 targets. He was second to Ezekiel Elliott in rushing yards and edged him by 27 yards in total yardage. He actually ranked 13th in receptions and only Christian McCaffrey had more among running backs.

Alvin Kamara (2017)
Kamara ran for an insane 6.1 yards per carry during his rookie year and won the award, despite only starting three games. He played all 16 and, much like Barkley a year later, racked up a ton of yardage through the air. His 826 receiving yards are still a career-high. He actually only rushed for 728 yards, but had 13 total touchdowns. Despite the eye-popping all-purpose yardage total, he had 28 first-place votes to 21 for Kareem Hunt, who rushed for 1,327 yards and actually outgained Kamara from scrimmage.

Dak Prescott (2016)
Prescott’s relative lack of pedigree was a huge deal, as the fourth-round pick became the latest player drafted since Denver’s Mike Anderson in 2000 (sixth-rounder) to win OROY. To this day, Dak and Dennis Shaw (1970) are the only non-first-round QBs to win. He started all 16 games and had a 23/4 TD/INT ratio and actually finished sixth in MVP voting.

Teammate Ezekiel Elliott was the only other vote-getter and, in fact, got 21.5 of the 50 first-place votes.

Todd Gurley (2015)
In the Rams’ final season in St. Louis, Gurley played in 13 games and had 1,106 rushing yards. He only had 10 total touchdowns, all on the ground, but won comfortably. Gurley had 27 first-place votes and ranked third in rushing yards behind Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin.

What does this mean for 2025? Well, like I said, opportunity matters. You notice that all of those players stayed healthy enough to play a lot of games to rack up passing attempts, carries, and targets, but they were also on teams that gave them the chance to shine.

Even when Barkley and Kamara won, they were huge parts of the passing game. It is a pass-driven award at this stage, especially with no running back winning since 2018 and the diminished importance of running backs in terms of draft position. In fact, of the last 20 vote-getters for this award, only three have been running backs and they have had 31, 4, and 6 points in the voting.

Now, let’s turn it over to our VSiN hosts and contributors for their best bets in the Offensive Rookie of the Year market.

Matt Brown

Shedeur Sanders (40/1)

Dillon Gabriel (80/1)

I am here to make the dual case for Sanders and Gabriel. The Browns have proven to be a joke of an organization, so I suppose there is a chance they start one of Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett at quarterback. It would make absolutely no sense, but what have they done to make a lot of sense lately? Any rookie starting quarterback in the NFL is worthy of OROY talk. Cam Ward is going to play for a bad team with a shaky offensive line. Tyler Shough? The Saints are going to be the worst team in the NFL. Jaxson Dart might not see the field until after the Giants Week 14 bye. Opportunity is the play here. There’s a lot of reasons to like both Sanders and Gabriel as bets at their current number. 

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Scott Seidenberg

Colston Loveland (30/1)

Can Ben Johnson do it again, but get a win this time? The new Bears coach turned a rookie tight end in Sam LaPorta into one of the biggest breakout stars of 2022. LaPorta set NFL records for receptions by a rookie tight end with 86 (shattered last year by Brock Bowers and his 112 catches) and joined Mike Ditka and Rob Gronkowski as the only rookie tight ends with double digit touchdown receptions. LaPorta finished third in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 behind Puka Nacua and his record-breaking season, and the eventual winner CJ Stroud and his record-breaking season. Loveland has the potential to have a LaPorta-like season this year for the Bears and, with Johnson leading the way, could emerge as the best offensive rookie in the NFL. 

Loveland has frequently been compared to LaPorta in the way he runs routes and catches balls. One anonymous NFL executive told The Athletic, “Loveland is going to catch a million balls. He will be better than Sam LaPorta. He is such a good receiver, and he’s bigger.” With teams utilizing more 12 personnel (two tight ends on the field), the Bears should excel with current TE Cole Kmet and Loveland on the field together. Defenses have been stacking the box vs. two-TE sets and the Bears can expose this. With Kmet being more of an in-line tight end, blocking and releasing, Loveland can split out wide and run more routes. (It’s worth noting that Johnson’s offense used 12 personnel at the second highest rate in the NFL last year.)

At 30/1 odds, Loveland is a great value play considering the expected volume and contributions he will have in this Bears offense. 

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Adam Burke

Tetairoa McMillan (15/1)

It is clear what the Panthers are trying to do — salvage the choice to draft Bryce Young by putting as much talent as possible around him. McMillan represents the second first-round WR taken in the Dave Canales era and the plan is going to be to give a shorter QB as many options with big catch radii as possible.

Sounds similar to what Canales had to work with in Tampa, right? A smaller QB who likes to uncork some 50/50 balls that he has to trust his receivers to either high point the football or be strong enough to catch it. McMillan could very well be the Mike Evans in this offense as a big 6-foot-4 kid that was thrown into first-team reps during OTAs. As mentioned, the last six winners have been QB or WR, and while there are some very interesting running backs in the mix this season, especially compared to previous ones, I’d still lean towards a passing game player getting the nod.

The other thing here is that team success is not a prerequisite. The Panthers, who some think could challenge for a playoff spot, may trail a lot, giving McMillan even more chances to rack up numbers and develop as a player. These rookie awards are usually about opportunity and McMillan should have a ton of it.

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Tim Murray

Kaleb Johnson (40/1)

One of my favorite players in the NFL Draft was Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson. With the 83rd pick, the Steelers passed on Shedeur Sanders and selected the talented running back. Johnson was Iowa’s offense in 2024. Johnson rushed for 1,537 yards on 240 carries and scored 21 touchdowns on the ground. With Najee Harris in Los Angeles with the Chargers, there is a path for Johnson to become RB1 in Pittsburgh. Jaylen Warren is still in Pittsburgh, but spending a third-round pick on Johnson is a clear indication on how much they value him. It’s worth noting, the Steelers did not have a second-round pick after trading for DK Metcalf from Seattle. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is in town, but the acquisition of Metcalf and Robert Woods should open up running opportunities for Johnson. Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty is the rightful favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but Johnson should have a great year in Pittsburgh and will challenge for the award.

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Tyler Shoemaker

Tetairoa McMillan (15/1)

Obviously, Jeanty and Ward will dominate this discussion, and rightfully so, but I think on a futures bet like this you want to look at some longer odds that will have a chance to either 1. Actually cash or 2. Drastically have an odds shift that you can reposition yourself down the road for some profit. T-Mac going to the Panthers gives Bryce Young a stud WR that he’s needed, and if they can make the Panthers a competent offense again, there will be a lot of praise heaped his way. He was the only thing that kept Arizona even remotely relevant last year, and with his size and athleticism, I think he could be a very good NFL player and in a relatively weak rookie class, I think he could be your OROY.

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Jensen Lewis

Matthew Golden 25/1

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Sean Green

Quinn Ewers (300/1)

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Will Hill

RJ Harvey