Conference Championship Weekend:

The Final Four is set and the NFL Playoffs are down to the conference championship games. In the NFC, we get a division showdown between the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles. In the AFC, we get a battle between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs as the nightcap on January 26.

It is good to get a little bit of new blood out there with the Commanders, who are in this round for the first time since they won the Super Bowl to culminate the 1991 season. The Eagles were just here a couple of years ago, where they beat the 49ers before losing to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. 

 

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The Chiefs are in their seventh straight AFC Championship Game, while the Bills are here for the first time since the 2020 season and just the second time since their run of losing four straight Super Bowls from 1990-93.

Let’s look at the opening lines and discuss where they might end up by kickoff.

Here is the Conference Championship Weekend NFL Odds Report:

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 48.5)

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

The two regular season data points for these teams deserve some context. The first game was on a Thursday night and the Eagles closed -4.5 with a total of 49.5, so pretty much in line with this number. Washington actually led 10-6 heading into the fourth quarter, but the Eagles scored 20 straight points before the Commanders scored a garbage-time TD late. Philly actually scored 14 points in 20 seconds with a Jayden Daniels interception in between Saquon Barkley TD runs.

The second game featured Jalen Hurts’ concussion, as he left early in the first quarter and did not return. The Eagles led that game 27-14 going into the fourth quarter behind a strong effort from Kenny Pickett. But, the Commanders would score 22 points in the fourth quarter, including Jamison Crowder’s game-winning touchdown catch with six seconds left. The Commanders won that game despite five turnovers.

Interestingly, Philly was a four-point road favorite in that game. Now they’re just a 4.5-point favorite at home, as the Commanders are getting some respect for beating the Buccaneers and Lions, while the Eagles have looked pretty average for stretches of their two playoff games. That being said, nobody can stop Barkley, who had TD runs of 62 and 78 against the Rams. Hurts also had a 44-yard rush TD.

As the market took shape on Sunday night, the Eagles were as high as -5.5 with most of the market settled in at 5. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if this line went to 6 early in the week and maybe even stayed there, as the Eagles defense has been terrific for a while and will easily be the best defense that Washington has faced.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 48.5)

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

These two teams also played during the regular season, but we only have one reference point. The Bills won 30-21 back on November 17 at home in a game where they were favored by 2.5 with extra juice. That game represented the first loss of the season for the Chiefs, who had won a lot of one-score games prior to that. 

The box score was pretty even. The Chiefs had 5.0 yards per play and the Bills had 5.2, but Bufalo ran 19 more plays and outgained the Chiefs by 107 yards. Neither team found much success on the ground, as Josh Allen had a long of 26 and the Bills had 78 yards on their other 30 carries. Allen threw for 262 yards, but that came on 40 pass attempts. Patrick Mahomes had two interceptions to go with three TD passes, but he only threw for 196 yards.

The Chiefs only ran the ball 17 times and mustered 78 yards, as the Bills controlled the clock effectively. We did see Buffalo money in the lead-up to that game, and some books did close -3, including Circa. With Buffalo’s uninspiring win over the Ravens, initial money on this game did come in on Kansas City. The Bills gave up 7.3 yards per play to the Ravens, but won with the help of three takeaways and hands of stone from Mark Andrews.

This is a tough handicap because the Chiefs don’t seem to be as strong as they were in previous seasons, but the Bills really struggled against the Ravens. While they won the head-to-head meeting, the venue flips now and the sum of all of KC’s parts definitely feel more trustworthy, don’t they?

This line is likely to hover in the 1.5 to 2.5 range and will be the highest-handle game of the season.

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