Tuley’s Takes – Early Bets for NFL Week 1:
The NFL’s 2026 schedule was released on Thursday, May 14 (with some early leaks) and, of course, sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and everywhere else rushed out their Week 1 openers.
We saw some movement in the lines as the market settled, mostly with early bettors snapping up the outliers. A lot of people think it’s way too early to be betting games that aren’t played until the fall, fearing the unknown of injuries and suspensions. But through all my years of posting my early “takes” on NFL Week 1 at Daily Racing Form, ESPN.com and now VSiN, I’ve seen more and more bettors agreeing with me that you can find value now that can be gone if you wait. You might have seen other stories like this, but a lot of them take the wrong approach, in my humble opinion.
While the obvious goal is to pick the winner of the games you’re looking to bet, I maintain that the main consideration is whether the line is expected to move by opening weekend and to be on the right side of that move (otherwise, it doesn’t make sense to tie up your money for 3.5 or more months, right?). You need to approach these not as much as a handicapper but as an investor. It’s a great feeling to have a ticket in your possession when a line has moved several points (or across the key numbers of 3 or 7) and you can decide if you’re going to let it ride because you have the best of it, or shoot for a middle.
LINES NOT WORTH BETTING NOW
As much as it’s tempting to bet a lot of these season openers (especially as we’re all excited to see the light of the NFL season at the end of the proverbial tunnel), we really feel we have to pass on the majority of games because we feel the lines will be the same during opening week in September.
The season kicks off with the traditional weeknight opener with the defending Super Bowl champion, the Seattle Seahawks in this case, playing at home, but this year it’s on a Wednesday night, Sept. 9, as the Seahawks host the New England Patriots in a rematch of the last NFL game we saw in February with the Seahawks winning 29-13 in Super Bowl LX. The Seahawks opened -4.5 at the Westgate SuperBook and have been bet up to 5.5. When the regular season rolls around, I’ll probably bet the Patriots plus the points (and perhaps use in the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest if I don’t have five weekend games I like better), but 5 and 5.5 are considered dead betting numbers and it appears like oddsmakers set it that way to let the market decide whether to move it up towards a TD or down towards a FG. There’s also uncertainty with the Mike Vrabel/Dianna Russini storyline, and while most everyone assumes no punishments are coming for Vrabel (or not enough to impact the point spread in Week 1), I still think it’s better to wait.
We also get a Thursday night game on Sept. 10 with two more NFC West teams as the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers play in Melbourne, Australia. This line opened Rams -3 and stayed there for a while, though BetMGM and William Hill in Nevada have lowered the line to -2.5 with heavy juice. If I was writing this on Labor Day in September instead of Memorial Day in May, I would probably be making a case to kick off my 2-team, 6-point teaser portfolio with the 49ers +9 (especially getting more than a TD at a neutral site) going to several games on Sunday. The only way I would recommend betting this now would be if you wanted to take a shot at hitting a “side” where you would bet the Rams -3 (or preferably -2.5) and hope the line moved to 3.5 to bet back the 49ers, OR take the 49ers +3 now and hope you have access to the Rams -2.5. Your call, but I’ll pass for now.
Perusing the Sunday games on the Week 1 schedule, most also look unplayable at this time.
Ravens (-3.5) at Colts: With the Ravens replacing John Harbaugh with Jesse Minter (I’m still not sure why!), it’s tempting to take the Colts as a home underdog of more than a FG. However, even though Daniel Jones is expected back from his Achilles injury sustained in Week 14 last season (opening the door for the Philip Rivers comeback), the Colts usually get off to slow starts as they were 2-12-1 in openers the prior 15 years before routing the Dolphins 33-8 in Week 1 last year. I don’t see this line dropping to 3 by Labor Day, so I think we’re safe to wait if we decide to pull the trigger then.
Falcons at Steelers (-3): Aaron Rodgers announced he was returning for one more season right before the schedule release and this opened between Steelers -1.5 and -2.5, otherwise this line coulda been around pick-’em or even the Falcons as short road favorites. Early bettors bet it up to 3 everywhere and, as of this writing, BetMGM has the line shaded to Steelers -3 -115, so I’m hoping that I can get Falcons +3.5 later this summer if support continues to come in on Pittsburgh.
Bills (-1.5) at Texans: Just like I wrote about the Rams-49ers above, if I was writing this on Labor Day with the lines the same as they are now, I would be adding Texans +7.5 to my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio along with the next two games on the early Sunday schedule: Panthers +8.5 vs. Bears and Jets +8.5 at Titans. However, teasers didn’t perform as well last year as in prior seasons, plus we’re seeing fewer and fewer books offering fair teaser odds, so I think it’s best to wait until Week 1 before putting together any teaser tickets.
Bears (-2.5) at Panthers: See above. If you believe the Bears are for real, you might want to lay the 2.5 now in case that disappears over the summer, but you know I’m “dog or pass,” so I’m passing for now.
Jets at Titans (-2.5): See above.
Saints at Lions (-7): The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened the Lions -6.5 while Boomer’s Sportsbook opted for Lions -7.5. The line settled at 7 everywhere very quickly and seems about right after the Lions underachieved last season and the Saints overachieved. I’m not willing to take Saints +7 now as the Lions have become a public team in recent years, so I’m thinking this is more likely to go up than go down.
Commanders at Eagles (-4.5): Both teams had a disappointing 2025 season as the Eagles were defending Super Bowl champs but lost in the wild-card round to the 49ers, while the Commanders had high expectations after their 2024 playoff run, only to stumble to a 5-12 season. This line is pretty solid at Eagles -4.5 (with Circa the only Vegas book at -4), so you should be able to get these numbers in September.
Packers at Vikings (pick ’em): The Packers opened between -1.5 and -2.5 but were quickly bet to a consensus PK. Some books are back to Packers -1, but it’s not worth firing on either team in this coin-flip game. Come September, I’ll probably tease the Vikings above a TD if available, but there’s no rush.
Cowboys (-2.5) at Giants: This is similar to the Bears-Panthers game in that my first impression is that I’ll be teasing the Giants up over a TD, but if you’re a chalk-better and think this line is going to 3 or higher, this would be the time to lay the short number.
Broncos at Chiefs (-3): This looks like a great Monday Night Football to close out Week 1, but we’ll also wait until September to make a final decision. If the line does rise to +3.5, I’ll probably be all over the Broncos ATS … but if it dips to 2.5 (and William Hill, South Point and Station Casinos in Las Vegas have already gone there as of Memorial Day), I’ll probably just use the Broncos in teasers. Barring any major injuries, this line should be pretty solid through the summer, so we can wait.
NFL WEEK 1 BETS TO MAKE NOW
OK, here’s the section you came here for. Here are the four NFL Week 1 point spreads that I feel are worth betting now, hopefully all of which offer betting value that will be even more come Labor Day, so we feel this is the time to lock them in. If we happen to be wrong and jump the gun too early, I’d be willing to bet more at even better lines come Week 1.
Browns (+7.5) at Jaguars: The Jaguars went 13-4 last season to win the AFC South and lost only 27-24 to the Bills in the wild-card round, while the Browns were among the worst teams in the league (again) at 5-12, so it’s not surprising this line is more than a touchdown with Jacksonville at home. However, I want to be on the underdog Browns getting more than a touchdown as I expect this line to come down. I’m not ready to put the Jaguars in the top tier of the league to be covering spreads this big (and they only beat the Raiders 30-29 and Cardinals 27-24 last year, so they tend to let weaker teams stick around). I also think the Browns will be better this season, especially if Deshaun Watson gets the Week 1 start as is looking more likely.
Buccaneers (+3.5) at Bengals: The Bengals are expected to be improved with a healthy Joe Burrow as they went 6-1 last season, 5-3 with Burrow starting and a dismal 1-8 without him. The Buccaneers also had a disappointing season at 8-9 as they couldn’t even win the mediocre NFC South, but I still don’t think the Bengals should be favored by more than a FG. In fact, I definitely think this game is a coin flip and should be closer to pick ’em, especially as Baker Mayfield is 3-0 in games that both Heisman Trophy winners have started (and those were when he was with the much worse Browns).
Cardinals (+10.5) at Chargers: Even though this is the biggest spread of Week 1 (and I still love double-digit NFL underdogs even though they don’t perform as well as they used to), this is the least confident that I’m making the right call to bet now. Even though the line is pretty solid at Chargers -10.5, they did open -11.5 at DraftKings, so it’s possible the line could rise again, especially if starting QB Jacoby Brissett doesn’t end his holdout and the Cards have to turn to Gardner Minshew or rookie Carson Beck. However, the line is down to Cardinals +10 at the Wynn Las Vegas, and I’m hoping it continues to drop.
Dolphins (+3.5) at Raiders: Like most of my contrarian dog plays, this is more a fade of the favored Raiders. I mean, even though the Dolphins are in rebuilding mode, should the Raiders be favored by more than a field goal over anyone? They’re coming off a 3-14 season that earned them the No. 1 pick in Indiana’s Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza, but it’s widely expected that free agent signee Kirk Cousins will actually start Week 1. I’m not a huge fan of new Miami QB Malik Willis, but I still expect this line to dip to a flat 3 over the summer in a season-opener between teams that are expected to be mediocre at best in the short term.
