The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 10. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 62-15 SU and 50-25-2 ATS (66.7%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-9.5 vs LVR) 

* NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 4-18 SU and 3-19 ATS (13.6%) in their last 22 tries.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5 vs ATL) 

Pre-bye week system: Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 56-25-1 ATS since 2013, 69.1%, +28.5 Units, 35.2% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at CAR)

Post-bye week system: Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 117-47 SU and 96-64-4 ATS since 1999, 60%, +25.6 Units, 16% ROI, Grade 63)
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at NYJ) 

* DETROIT is on a 12-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-8.5 at WAS) 

* LA Rams: 10-4 SU and 13-1 ATS in the last 14 road rematch situations
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-4.5 at SF) 

* The STEELERS have been solid versus the Chargers historically, going 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS in head-to-head meetings since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3 at LAC) 

#1 DIFFERENTIAL in EYPP ratings with actual point spread: SEATTLE -6.5 vs Arizona (projections have line at SEA -15.1) 

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING Over according to the Makinen Bettors Ratings: NYG-CHI OVER 46.5 (projections have total at 49.4)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

(109) LAS VEGAS (2-6) at (110) DENVER (7-2)
* LAS VEGAS is 37-51 ATS (42%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 25-18 ATS (58.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 37-53 ATS (41.1%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of LAS VEGAS (+9.5 at DEN)

* DENVER is 26-37 ATS (41.3%) as a favorite since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-9.5 vs LVR)

* DENVER is 104-70 Under the total (59.8%) since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 30-8 Over the total vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2013
* LAS VEGAS is 22-5 Under the total as a divisional road underdog since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in LVR-DEN (o/u at 42.5) 

(251) ATLANTA (3-5) at (252) INDIANAPOLIS (7-2)
* ATLANTA is on a 12-22 SU and 9-25 ATS skid on normal rest (seven days)
* ATLANTA is 17-35 ATS (32.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* INDIANAPOLIS is 25-20 ATS (55.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Shane Steichen is on a 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 16-18 SU and 21-14 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5 vs ATL) 

(253) CLEVELAND (2-6) at (254) NY JETS (1-7)
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 17-9 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-NYJ (o/u at 37.5)

* CLEVELAND is 20-32 ATS (38.5%) as a favorite since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at NYJ)

* NY JETS are 11-27 ATS (28.9%) when coming off a SU win since 2017
* NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 12-31 SU and 17-24-2 ATS (41.5%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.2, Team average PF: 19.7
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+2.5 vs CLE) 

(255) NEW ORLEANS (1-8) at (256) CAROLINA (5-4)
* NEW ORLEANS is 37-26 ATS (58.7%) in road/neutral games since 2018
* CAROLINA is 9-18 SU and 8-19 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
* CAROLINA is 21-30 ATS (41.2%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is 16-33 ATS (32.7%) as a favorite since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at CAR) 

(257) BUFFALO (6-2) at (258) MIAMI (2-7)
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 36-22 Under the total on the road since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-MIA (o/u at 50.5)

* BUFFALO is 32-25 ATS (56.1%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-9.5 at MIA)

* MIAMI is 62-33 ATS (65.3%) at home since 2014
* MIAMI is 38-24 ATS (61.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on a 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 1-12 SU and 4-9 ATS in his last 13 starts versus teams with winning records
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 2 FADES of MIAMI (+9.5 vs BUF) 

(259) JACKSONVILLE (5-3) at (260) HOUSTON (3-5)
* JACKSONVILLE is 43-34 Under the total (55.8%) since 2021
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on a 12-1 Under the total streak as a home favorite
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 16-6 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-HOU (o/u at 37.5) 

(261) BALTIMORE (3-5) at (262) MINNESOTA (4-4)
* BALTIMORE is 45-25 ATS (64.3%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-3.5 at MIN)

* MINNESOTA is 32-19 SU and 33-16 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 83-58 SU and 89-51-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 19-26 ATS (42.2%) at home since 2020
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (+3.5 vs BAL)

* MINNESOTA is 64-47 Over the total (57.7%) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-MIN (o/u at 48.5)

(263) NEW ENGLAND (7-2) at (264) TAMPA BAY (6-2)
* NEW ENGLAND is 18-27-2 ATS (40%) as an underdog since 2021
* NEW ENGLAND is 31-6 SU and 28-9 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW ENGLAND (+2.5 at TB)

* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is just 6-13 SU and 5-13 ATS when his team plays with extra rest (>7 days) since 2017
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 15-9 SU but 7-17 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
* TAMPA BAY is 39-53 ATS (42.4%) at home since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-2.5 vs NE)

* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 13-6 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NE-TB (o/u at 48.5) 

(265) NY GIANTS (2-7) at (266) CHICAGO (5-3)
* NY GIANTS are 59-33 Under the total (64.1%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 23-13 Under the total surge as single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-CHI (o/u at 47.5)

* CHICAGO is 23-13 SU and 23-12 ATS vs. poor defenses allowing >=27 PPG since 2015
* CHICAGO is 34-43 ATS (44.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of CHICAGO (-3.5 vs NYG) 

(267) ARIZONA (3-5) at (268) SEATTLE (6-2)
* ARIZONA is 13-20 ATS (39.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 34-22 ATS (60.7%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 34-19 ATS (64.2%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+6.5 at SEA)

* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on an 8-3 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 27-13 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ARI-SEA (o/u at 45.5)

* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 10-11 SU and 7-13-1 ATS in the last 21 starts vs. teams with losing records
* SEATTLE is 44-53-1 ATS (45.4%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
Trends Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-6.5 vs ARI) 

(269) DETROIT (5-3) at (270) WASHINGTON (3-6)
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 9-12 SU and 10-11 ATS skid vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33%
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 12-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DETROIT (-8.5 at WAS)

* WASHINGTON is 21-37 ATS (36.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs DET) 

(271) LA RAMS (6-2) at (272) SAN FRANCISCO (6-3)
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 35-65 SU and 37-61 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is just 10-15 SU and 7-16 ATS in its last 25 November games
Trends Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-4.5 at SF)

* LA RAMS are 56-43 Under the total (56.6%) since 2020
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 27-16 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 46-31 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in LAR-SF (o/u at 49.5)

(273) PITTSBURGH (5-3) at (274) LA CHARGERS (6-3)
* PITTSBURGH is 19-11 SU and 20-10 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 32-25 SU and 38-17 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3 at LAC)

* LA CHARGERS are 38-52-1 ATS (42.2%) at home since 2014
* LA CHARGERS’ Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 33-11 SU and 29-13 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA CHARGERS (-3 vs PIT)

* PITTSBURGH is 105-74 Under the total (58.7%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 14-7 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* LA CHARGERS are 65-35 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 27-13 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 16-5 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-LAC (o/u at 45.5) 

(275) PHILADELPHIA (6-2) at (276) GREEN BAY (5-2)
* PHILADELPHIA is 22-9 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 20-12 Under the total in his last 32 road games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in PHI-GB (o/u at 45.5)

* GREEN BAY is 23-17 ATS (57.5%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
* GREEN BAY is 36-21 ATS (63.2%) at home since 2019
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 22-14-1 SU but 14-23 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs PHI)

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams. 

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 22-15 SU but 11-26 ATS (29.7%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-3.5 vs NYG) 

TURNOVERS ARE A KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 19-15 SU but 11-22-1 ATS (33.3%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5 vs ATL) 

NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 4-18 SU and 3-19 ATS (13.6%) in their last 22 tries.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5 vs ATL)

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 30-24 SU but 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 54. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 and later are 44-28 SU and 42-27-3 ATS (60.9%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-9.5 vs LVR)

NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 32-3 SU and 21-12-2 ATS (63.6%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-9.5 vs LVR)

There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 21-23 SU and 27-16-1 ATS (62.8%) record.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+9.5 at DEN)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 59-40-2 ATS (59.6%) in their last 101.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-3 vs PIT)

Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-24-1 SU and 17-23-1 ATS (42.5%) in their last 41, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-10 SU and 22-16 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-3 vs PIT) 

Bad SNF Team Trends
LA Chargers 4-6 ATS skid
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-3 vs PIT)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 23-22 SU and 27-18 ATS (60%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs PHI)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 46-41 SU but just 33-52-2 ATS (38.8%) in the last 87 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs PHI)

Good MNF Team Trends
Green Bay 10-3 SU in the last 13, 5-2 ATS in the last seven
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs PHI) 

Under the total MNF Team Trends
Philadelphia 12-3-1 Under in the last 16
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-GB (o/u at 45.5)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider: 

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Green Bay 20-8-1 SU and 21-7-1 ATS in the last 29
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs PHI)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 10-21 SU and 11-18-2 ATS in the last 31
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-9.5 vs LVR) 

Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Denver 18-6 Under since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-DEN (o/u at 42.5) 

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-46 SU and 18-41-4 ATS (30.5%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+6.5 at SEA) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 62-15 SU and 50-25-2 ATS (66.7%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-9.5 vs LVR) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 16-1 SU and 12-4-1 ATS (75%) record in their L17 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-9.5 vs LVR)

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason. 

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 56-25-1 ATS since ‘13, 69.1%, +28.5 Units, 35.2% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at CAR) 

Pre-bye week system #2:
Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 38-16-2 since ‘13, 70.4%, +20.4 Units, 37.8% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-CAR (o/u at 39.5) 

Pre-bye week system #3
Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 79-6-1 SU and 57-27-2 ATS since ’02, 67.9%, +27.3 Units, 32.5% ROI, Grade 72)
System Match (PLAY): WATCH FOR INDIANAPOLIS vs Atlanta (-6.5 currently) 

Pre-bye week system #8
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 30-8-1 SU and 26-12-1 ATS since 2009, 68.4%, +12.8 Units, 33.7% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5 vs ATL)

Pre-bye week system #10
Play ON any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 17-2-1 SU and 15-5 ATS since 2008, 75%, +9.5 Units, 47.5% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5 vs ATL)

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/9 vs. Atlanta Falcons (Munich)
· Indianapolis is on a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS run in pre-bye week games overall
· The Colts have gone 16-3-1 ATS in pre-bye week road/neutral games since 1993, but did fail to cover as 2.5-point road favorite at New England last year
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5 vs ATL) 

New Orleans Saints Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/9 at Carolina Panthers
· The Saints have gone 15-6-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2003
· New Orleans is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five pre-bye week games vs. divisional foes
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at CAR) 

Post-Bye Week Systems and Trends

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason 

Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 117-47 SU and 96-64-4 ATS since 1999, 60%, +25.6 Units, 16% ROI, Grade 63)
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at NYJ) 

Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 25-24 SU and 30-17-2 ATS since 2015, 63.8%, +11.3 Units, 24% ROI, Grade 66)
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-2.5 vs NE) 

Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 47-19 SU and 37-27-2 ATS since ’99, 58.7%, +7.3 Units, 11.4% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (+2.5 vs CLE) 

Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 28-19-2 since 2010, 59.6%, +7.1 Units, 15.1% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-NYJ (o/u at 37.5) 

Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 24-17 SU and 27-14 ATS since 2019, 65.9%, +11.6 Units, 28.3% ROI, Grade 65)
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at NYJ), PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 at GB) 

Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 41-23-1 since 2021, 64.1%, +15.7 Units, 24.5% ROI, Grade 65)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-NYJ (o/u at 37.5), PHI-GB (o/u at 45.5) 

Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after yielding 35+ points before the bye. (Record: 23-13-1 Under since 2014, 63.9%, +8.7 Units, 24.2% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-NYJ (o/u at 37.5)

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Cleveland Browns Post-Bye Week Game: 11/9 at New York Jets
·  Cleveland is 5-9 SU and 2-11-1 ATS in its last 14 post-bye week games, including a 35-14 loss at New Orleans last year
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at NYJ)

· The Browns are on an 11-3 Over the total surge in post-bye week road games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-NYJ (o/u at 37.5)

New York Jets Post-Bye Week Game: 11/9 vs. Cleveland Browns
· Like many other situations of late, the Jets have struggled in post-bye week games, 3-13 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16
· The Jets are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven post-bye week home games
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+2.5 vs CLE) 

Philadelphia Eagles Post-Bye Week Game: MON 11/10 at Green Bay Packers
·Philadelphia is just 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine post-bye week games versus NFC foes
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 at GB)

· Philadelphia is 8-2 Under the total in the last 10 post-bye week road games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-GB (o/u at 45.5) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/9 vs. New England Patriots
· Tampa Bay has gone 5-0 Under the total in its last five post-bye week games, but is on 5-1 Over run vs. AFC foes in such games
· The Buccaneers are on a 6-0 Under the total streak as post-bye week favorites
Trends Match (SLIGHT PLAY UNDER): NE-TB (o/u at 48.5)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same season rematch data over the last 14 seasons 

Best NFL rematch teams lately
– Miami 13-6 ATS L19, incl 8-3 in the last 11
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+9.5 vs BUF)

– San Francisco: 14-8 SU and ATS in the last 22
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5 vs LAR) 

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
–  Arizona: 4-17 SU and 7-14 ATS skid in the last 21
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+6.5 at SEA) 

Best NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
–  LA Rams: 10-4 SU and 13-1 ATS in the last 14 on road
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-4.5 at SF) 

Worst NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
–  Jacksonville: ugly 3-19 SU and 10-12 ATS road rematch skid
Trend Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+1.5 at HOU) 

Best NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately
–   San Francisco: 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in the last 15 when having won the initial outing
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5 vs LAR) 

Noteworthy NFL head-to-head second-time (and 3rd) around trend
–  Buffalo: 12-5 ATS streak vs. Miami and New England since 12/31/17
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-9.5 at MIA)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: NYG-CHI(-3.5), CLE-NYJ(+2.5), NO(+5.5)-CAR, JAX(+1.5)-HOU) 

– Rookie head coaches haven’t been good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade – 155-183-10 ATS (45.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NY JETS 

– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 114-131-4 ATS (46.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, JACKSONVILLE 

– After wins, rookie coaches have done measurably worse in that same time frame, 48-74-6 ATS (39.3%) in their last 128.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NY JETS, JACKSONVILLE

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: LVR(+9.5)-DEN, NE(+3)-TB)

– In non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 44-61 ATS (41.9%) over the last decade, including 17-31 ATS (35.4%) over the last 3+ seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND 

– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2015, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 107-139 ATS (43.5%), while in weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 81-74 ATS (52.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LAS VEGAS, NEW ENGLAND

–  Since 2015, when coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 139-176 ATS (44.1%).
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS 

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Dillon Gabriel (Cleveland), JJ McCarthy (Minnesota), Tyler Shough (NO Saints), and Jaxson Dart (NY Giants). 

(Games this week: CLE(-2.5)-NYJ, NO(+5.5)-CAR, BAL-MIN(+3.5), NYG(+3.5)-CHI) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in Weeks 10-15, as they are just 103-158 SU and 111-139-11 ATS (44.4%) in that time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS, MINNESOTA, NY GIANTS

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 141-128 ATS (52.4%) in home games but just 124-150 ATS (45.3%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 39-106 SU and 60-83-2 ATS (42%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS, NY GIANTS 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as small road dogs
Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as small road underdogs, going 21-54 SU but 30-43-2 ATS (41.1%) when catching +4.5 points or fewer.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 51-110 SU and 67-89-4 ATS (42.9%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS

Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 55-72 SU but 70-56 ATS (55.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NY GIANTS

Since 2022, rookie QBs are 21-18 SU and 23-13-3 ATS (63.9%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 182 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 58-124 SU and 81-98-2 ATS (45.3%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND, NY GIANTS

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Jacoby Brissett (Arizona), and Geno Smith (Las Vegas). 

(Games this week: LVR(+9.5)-DEN, ARI(+6.5)-SEA, PIT(+3)-LAC) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 28-43 SU and 28-42-1 ATS (40%) in their last 71 such tries for their new teams.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 89-76 SU and 90-73-2 ATS (55.2%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
In their last 64 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 30-34 SU and 24-39-1 ATS (38.1%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, PITTSBURGH 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 37-34 SU and 47-24 ATS (66.2%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH 

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)

These are very good wrap up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the ’25 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CAROLINA, BUFFALO, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO, SEATTLE, DETROIT, LA RAMS, PITTSBURGH 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, CAROLINA, BUFFALO, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, LA RAMS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, CAROLINA, BUFFALO, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, LA RAMS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, BUFFALO, BALTIMORE, DETROIT, LA RAMS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, PITTSBURGH 

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ATL-IND, BAL-MIN, NE-TB, NYG-CHI, DET-WAS, LAR-SF
UNDER – BUF-MIA 

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets have been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY UNDER): BUF-MIA 

DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): NE-TB, LAR-SF

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +1.5 (+1.9)
2. NY JETS +2.5 (+1.8)
3. ARIZONA +6.5 (+1.2)
4. SAN FRANCISCO +4.5 (+1.0)
5. ATLANTA +6.5 (+0.7) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -4.5 (+1.3)
2. LA CHARGERS -3 (+1.2)
3(tie). DENVER -9.5 (+1.1)
DETROIT -7.5 (+1.1)
5. BUFFALO -9.5 (+0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS +2.5 (+2.8)
2. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+2.0)
3. HOUSTON +1.5 (+1.8)
4(tie). MINNESOTA +3.5 (+1.0)
ARIZONA +6.5 (+1.0) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -7.5 (+1.7)
2. BUFFALO -9.5 (+0.3) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-NYJ OVER 37.5 (+4.1)
2. NYG-CHI OVER 46.5 (+4.0)
3. PIT-LAC OVER 45.5 (+1.2)
4. LVR-DEN OVER 42.5 (+1.0)
5. ARI-SEA OVER 45.5 (+0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAR-SF UNDER 49.5 (-2.5)
2. BUF-MIA UNDER 50.5 (-1.6)
3. BAL-MIN UNDER 48.5 (-0.8)
4. DET-WAS UNDER 49.5 (-0.7)
5. ATL-IND UNDER 48.5 (-0.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+5.3)
2. ATLANTA +6.5 (+3.4)
3. NY JETS +2.5 (+3.2)
4. NY GIANTS +4.5 (+2.6)
5. MIAMI +9.5 (+2.1) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). LA CHARGERS -3 (+2.4)
GREEN BAY -2.5 (+2.4)
3. DETROIT -7.5 (+0.6)
4. JACKSONVILLE -1.5 (+0.3) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYG-CHI OVER 46.5 (+2.9)
2. PHI-GB OVER 45.5 (+2.3)
3. PIT-LAC OVER 45.5 (+1.2)
4. ATL-IND OVER 48.5 (+0.9)
5. DET-WAS OVER 49.5 (+0.2)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAR-SF UNDER 49.5 (-5.0)
2. CLE-NYJ UNDER 37.5 (-2.5)
3. BUF-MIA UNDER 50.5 (-2.1)
4. ARI-SEA UNDER 45.5 (-1.4)
5. LVR-DEN UNDER 42.5 (-1.2) 

Comparing Effective Yards Per Play Ratings to This Week’s Matchups

Here are the top six games for this weekend’s games, as far as differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home field advantage built into the differences. Starting in Week 4 of the 2025 season, these plays are 18-18 ATS (50%). 

1. (267) ARIZONA CARDINALS at (268) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS     
Actual Line: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: -6.5    
Effective Play-by-play Line: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: -15.1
Difference: 8.6 – Favors: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 

2. (273) PITTSBURGH STEELERS at (274) LA CHARGERS
Actual Line: LA CHARGERS: -3
Effective Play-by-play Line: LA CHARGERS: -10 
Difference: 7 – Favors: LA CHARGERS 

3. (275) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at (276) GREEN BAY PACKERS
Actual Line: GREEN BAY PACKERS: -2.5  
Effective Play-by-play Line: GREEN BAY PACKERS: -9
Difference: 6.5 – Favors: GREEN BAY PACKERS 

4. (255) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at (256) CAROLINA PANTHERS    
Actual Line: CAROLINA PANTHERS: -5.5   
Effective Play-by-play Line: CAROLINA PANTHERS: +0.7     
Difference: 6.2 – Favors: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

5. (257) BUFFALO BILLS at (258) MIAMI DOLPHINS  
Actual Line: MIAMI DOLPHINS: +9.5  
Effective Play-by-play Line: MIAMI DOLPHINS: +5.1     
Difference: 4.4 – Favors: MIAMI DOLPHINS 

6. (251) ATLANTA FALCONS at (252) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS     
Actual Line: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: -6.5    
Effective Play-by-play Line: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: -2.7
Difference: 3.8 – Favors: ATLANTA FALCONS 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action: 

(109) LAS VEGAS at (110) DENVER
* Favorites have covered three straight ATS in the LVR-DEN divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-9.5 vs LVR) 

(251) ATLANTA at (252) INDIANAPOLIS
* Favorites are 6-1 SU and ATS in the ATL-IND series since 2001
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5 vs ATL) 

(253) CLEVELAND at (254) NY JETS
* Favorites are 11-2 ATS in the CLE-NYJ set since 2004, although just 1-2 ATS since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at NYJ) 

(255) NEW ORLEANS at (256) CAROLINA
* Home teams are 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the NO-CAR divisional series in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (-5.5 vs NO) 

(257) BUFFALO at (258) MIAMI
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the BUF-MIA AFC East rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-9.5 at MIA) 

(259) JACKSONVILLE at (260) HOUSTON
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Jaguars-Texans divisional set at NRG Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-HOU (o/u at 37.5) 

(261) BALTIMORE at (262) MINNESOTA
* Over the total is 5-0 in the BAL-MIN series since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-MIN (o/u at 49.5) 

(263) NEW ENGLAND at (264) TAMPA BAY
* Under the total is 5-0 and NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Tampa Bay
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NE-TB (o/u at 48.5)
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+3 at TB) 

(265) NY GIANTS at (266) CHICAGO
* Under the total has converted in all four matchups between NYG and CHI since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-CHI (o/u at 47.5) 

(267) ARIZONA at (268) SEATTLE
* SEATTLE is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS versus divisional foe Arizona since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-6.5 vs ARI) 

(269) DETROIT at (270) WASHINGTON
* Underdogs are 4-1 SU and ATS in the DET-WAS series since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs DET) 

(271) LA RAMS at (272) SAN FRANCISCO
* Underdogs are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS in the LAR-SF NFC West rivalry since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5 vs LAR) 

(273) PITTSBURGH at (274) LA CHARGERS
* The STEELERS have been solid versus the Chargers historically, going 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS in meetings since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3 at LAC) 

(275) PHILADELPHIA at (276) GREEN BAY
* Favorites are 10-4 ATS in the PHI-GB series since the start of the 2004-05 season
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs PHI)

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