NFL Week 2 Best Bets from Will Hill:

Atlanta Falcons +100 to miss the playoffs (DK)

It wasn’t pretty in week 1, as Kirk Cousins looked like a 36-year-old quarterback coming off of an Achilles injury. The Falcons had the same thought process as the Vikings did in 2018—all that was needed was just a slight upgrade at the quarterback position. The Vikings were 13-3 in 2017 and 4-point favorites in the NFC Championship Game before signing Cousins after the year, and never sniffed that level again in the six years with Cousins from 2018-2023. The Falcons are 0-1 and now have a trip to Philadelphia to take on a rested Eagles team, followed by a game against the Chiefs. 0-3 is certainly on the table, and the ensuing games against the Bucs and Saints look perhaps even a bit tougher after Week 1. An older quarterback who doesn’t look fully healthy, coupled with a tough stretch of games over the next month, makes this a good bet.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +100 to miss playoffs

 

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Cleveland Browns +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

This line was 4 on Monday, and I think the sharp move to 3 is correct. Yes, Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson looked bad in Week 1, and that trade and subsequent contract they signed him to are a disaster. However, before the season started (less than a week ago), the Browns and Jaguars had identical over/under numbers for season win totals at 8.5. The market was telling us these teams were dead even just a few days ago, and home-field is not worth the full 3 anymore, especially in Jacksonville. Watson did look a little bit better in the second half of the game vs the Cowboys, and there is value on the dog here. 

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +3

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans +4

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Tough spot here for the Jets. Not only did they play on Monday night in San Francisco and now have to play on a short week across the country at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday afternoon, but their defense was on the field for two-thirds of the game in Week 1. The Jets were on the field defensively for 70 plays and 38+ minutes in Week 1, on a night where the Jets allowed points on eight consecutive possessions. Meanwhile, the Titans, despite the loss, may have one of the more underrated units in the league with a defense that only allowed 2.8 yards per play and 148 total yards last week on the road vs the Bears. I’m happy to take the 4 here.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +4

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos O/U 36.5

The Steelers are an Under team until proven otherwise. All signs point to Justin Fields starting once again for the Steelers. If Week 1 was any indication as to how this team will play, it will be hard to go Over on their games, barring a rash of turnovers. The Steelers played outstanding defense against the Falcons, winning a game despite not finding the end zone on offense. Mike Tomlin is a conservative coach who will punt and play the field position game on fourth down, as well as kick field goals- a great recipe for an under. Meanwhile, Bo Nix was shaky and mistake-prone in his debut in Seattle, and I think Sean Payton will be looking to eliminate those risky plays this week. Both teams know they can likely win this game without cracking 20 points if they avoid turnovers. I expect a conservative game plan from both coaches and an ugly, low-scoring game. 

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pittsburgh/Denver Under 36.5

Bonus College Football Best Bet:

Notre Dame at Purdue +10.5

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)

I faded Notre Dame last week, and I’m going back to the well here with another double-digit dog. Notre Dame has a young, inexperienced offensive line that struggled to protect quarterback Riley Leonard last week. There haven’t been many big plays for Notre Dams as a result, as the passing game generated just 162 yards on 32 attempts last week against a MAC team. It’s hard to cover double-digits when you can’t generate big plays, especially on the road. I believe the debates about a 10-2 or 11-1 Notre Dame team making the playoffs will sort itself out with a few losses over the next couple of months. Give me Purdue plus the points. 

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