NFL Week 4 best bets from the T Shoe Index

By
Tyler Shoemaker
-
604
 

NFL Week 4 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index

Best bets went 1-1 last week, as we learned the Jets’ offense really is that bad, so my apologies for backing Zach Wilson. Lesson learned. That was the first loss this season for a side with a 4+ point discrepancy between TSI and oddsmakers. Nonetheless, the process has proven to be successful so I’m ready for another week of action in the NFL, so let’s get to the Week 4 best bets.

 

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Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings (-4), O/U 46

Starting QB Bryce Young is expected to return this week for the Panthers, and TSI likes the value in backing the Panthers at home against the Vikings. While Carolina is just the 27th-ranked team in my ratings, Minnesota isn’t a whole lot better at No. 20. I project this line as a pick ‘em, with the Vikings having the No. 12 offense and No. 25 defense, while the Panthers have the No. 22 offense and No. 28 defense in the TSI. Last week, Carolina lost a shootout with the Seahawks despite not having Bryce Young, and Minnesota lost a close game to the Chargers in a game where we cashed the Under as a best bet. I’m taking the points with the home dog in this spot.

Pick: Panthers +4 (Play to +3.5)

Buffalo Bills (-3) vs Miami Dolphins, O/U 54

Perhaps the biggest story of last week was the onslaught that the Dolphins had against the lowly Broncos, scoring 70 points en route to a 50-point win. When I saw that, I immediately had an inkling that I’d be betting against the Dolphins this week. I’m not a big trends guy, but in NFL history, teams that have scored 60+ points have gone 0-7 ATS the following week. Coupling that with the fact I project the Bills as a 4.5-point favorite here has me on Josh Allen and company. 

While that performance against Denver was certainly impressive, it’s hardly replicable. This is a battle of my No. 1 team (Bills) vs. my No. 3 team (Dolphins), where the Bills have the No. 2 offense and the Dolphins have the No. 1 offense. The difference here lies on the other side of the ball, where Buffalo has the No. 1 TSI defense and Miami is at No. 20. The Bills look to be the team more equipped to get stops in what figures to be a fireworks show. I’ll take Buffalo against the red-hot Dolphins here. I also lean strongly to the Under here. 

Pick: Bills -3 (play to -3, -134)

To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.

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