NFL Wild Card Best Bets from Will Hill:

Here are my NFL Wild Card best bets:

Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 Rush Yards (DK)

With Ravens leading receiver Zay Flowers uncertain to play on Saturday, potential 2024 MVP Lamar Jackson may have to take things into his own hands, or feet, to be more accurate. If Flowers is indeed out, the Ravens will be limited in terms of weapons, which could lead to more Lamar Jackson running. In general, betting on quarterbacks to run more during the playoffs is a good strategy. Over the course of a long, grueling season, quarterbacks may throw the ball away or step out of bounds to avoid taking unnecessary hits. In the playoffs, where it’s win or go home, that is less likely to happen. Look for Jackson to have a big day on the ground.

 

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Green Bay Packers +2.5 First Half 

Shop around (as always), as you might be able to find a few 3s, which is obviously a very key number. The angle for playing the first half is two-fold. The Eagles have been notorious slow-starters this year and have struggled early in games on offense. Also, they have quarterback Jalen Hurts coming back from a concussion. He’s expected to play, but will there be rust? Also, and this may be the most important factor, the Packers (unlike most teams) have elected to receive when winning the coin toss recently, meaning they will likely start with the ball. The Packers have struggled when stepping up in competition this year, but have played a much tougher schedule than the Eagles, grabbing them in the first half and first quarter is perhaps the best way to back them. 

Washington Commanders +.5 Third Quarter -142

Another game where we likely know who starts with the ball. The Bucs have been another rare team that has bucked the trend of deferring, and has chosen to take the ball with the hopes of striking first for an early lead. Nothing is for sure; they could always change it up and defer, just like the Commanders can break their tendency and choose to receive, but chances are the Bucs get the ball to start the game, meaning the Commanders get the ball to start the third quarter, making getting the half-point so valuable. Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metric has the Commanders as the better team. I lean that way in the game, and I love getting to win on a potential third quarter tie where I believe the team I’m backing will have first possession.

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