NFL Wild Card Weekend: Our best bets, picks for every game

January 12, 2023

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NFL Wild Card best bets

Welcome to Wild Card weekend of the 2022 NFL playoffs.

Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.

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Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.

Sunday’s games

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13, 43.5)

1:05 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: We gave this out Sunday night on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” at Dolphins +11. As it was bet down to Bills -9, we were hoping that was an indication that Tua Tagovailoa would clear concussion protocol and be able to play. However, it was announced Wednesday that he’s OUT and Teddy Bridgewater is doubtful, leaving us with Skylar Thompson.

Regardless, this is actually more of a play against the Bills, who we’ve had a lot of success against this season as they somehow always seem to let teams stick around as they’re 13-3 SU but only 8-7-1 ATS, including losing outright to these Dolphins in Week 3 and then only beating them 31-29 just three weeks ago and failing to cover as 7-point home favorites.

Granted, we know the Dolphins didn’t score a TD with Thompson in the 11-6 win vs. the Jets this past Sunday, but he did play turnover-free football and led the game-winning FG drive. And even though Tua played in the Week 16 game, don’t forget that Raheem Mostert rushed for 136 yards against this Bills’ defense. Buffalo apologists will point out that Mostert is doubtful with a broken thumb, but Jeff Wilson Jr. ran for 143 vs. the Jets on Sunday.

I know I’m in the minority (and I love being contrarian), but I still see the Dolphins as a live underdog and welcome the added points.

Pick: Dolphins +13

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 48.5)

4:40 p.m. ET

Adam Burke: It is probably unfortunate that these two teams meet in the playoffs because a lot of bettors would’ve lined up to fade both of them. However, I’ll take the team with the better coach and the quarterback less likely to make a mistake. That would be the underdog Giants with Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones.

Jones had a 15/5 TD/INT ratio, while Kirk Cousins threw 14 picks. Cousins threw far more often than Jones, but his INT% was double that of Jones (2.2% to 1.1%). With Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, TJ Hockenson and others, the Vikings had a much lower EPA/play than the Giants, as New York was ninth and Minnesota was 18th. Credit to Daboll and his assistants for that, as they’ve found a way to minimize the turnovers and mistakes from Jones.

Defensively, the Vikings were better, but the Giants were roughly around league average against the pass. They were bad against the run, which isn’t that big of a factor against a Vikings team that ranked 25th in Rush Success Rate and has a banged-up Dalvin Cook going into this one.

The Giants had one of their best offensive performances of the season against the Vikings in Week 16 and deserved a better fate in the 27-24 loss. I think they get it here.

Pick: Giants +3

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5, 40.5)

8:15 p.m. ET

Danny Burke: This line movement is clearly reflecting that Lamar Jackson will not be playing. And, even if he was, would you trust him? Jackson hasn’t taken any meaningful snaps in over a month, let alone any practice snaps. The Bengals are the hottest team in the NFL, their defense has vastly improved, and they deserve to be in the postseason and make a Super Bowl run this year. Baltimore has lost too many close games, and they were barely able to escape with a narrow victory against the Bengals earlier this year when they had a fully healthy team. Now they may be throwing out Anthony Brown as their quarterback. The line has gotten out of hand, and I actually teased them down when Cincinnati was at -8.5, but I still believe teasing them down from -9.5 is worth the play, too.

Pick: 7pt Teaser: SF (-2.5) / CIN (-2.5)

Monday’s game

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 45.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8:15 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: We grabbed the Buccaneers +3 on Sunday night as Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, and we can’t resist taking him as a home underdog, especially against a Dallas team that we don’t trust.

The Buccaneers’ defense is No. 9 in yards allowed per game – and we keep thinking back to the way it dominated in the 19-3 season-opening road win over the Cowboys and a healthy Dak Prescott – and has continually kept them in games to give Brady a chance at late-game heroics. Besides, the Brady-to-Mike Evans combo came through with 3 TD passes in the Week 17 division-clinching win versus the Panthers, so hopefully that’s a good sign that a late rally won’t be needed.

Marc Lawrence of playbook.com and a contestant in my VSiN colleague Matt Youmans’ “Circa Friday Night Invitational” also adds that “playing against any away team in the wild-card round that is coming off a loss of 14 or more points” is 14-1 ATS (93%) since 1980.

We fully expect the Bucs to pull the minor upset, though we wouldn’t blame those that missed the +3 to just tease them up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +8.5.

Picks: Buccaneers +2.5 or better, +125 on the money line, plus teasers

Adam Burke: The other leg of the world’s most obvious playoff teaser is to take Tampa Bay up to +8.5 against Dallas. Pair it with the Jaguars to get two home underdogs through the key numbers of 3 and 7 and you’ve got a pretty strong wager from a positive expectation standpoint. Dallas is and has been the better team throughout the season, though neither team comes into the playoffs on a high note.

The one thing that has always bothered Tom Brady throughout his career is pressure up the middle. Unless the Cowboys are consistently able to get that, the GOAT should be able to at least keep his team in the game, if not win it outright on Monday night. The Cowboys caught a respite in the last two games facing Josh Dobbs and Sam Howell, but the Eagles and Jaguars picked them apart in Weeks 15 and 16.

The Bucs struggled a bit against the pass later in the year, but they were sixth in Rush Success Rate against from Week 12 through the end of the regular season. We know that the Cowboys want to run the ball and have needed to do so, given the play of Dak Prescott. It’s just hard to see a scenario in which Dallas wins in a blowout, and we’re getting over a touchdown with Brady at home.

Pick: Buccaneers +8.5 / Jaguars +8.5 teaser

Danny Burke: We get a rematch of a game that ended 19-3, to open the regular season. Now, I don’t necessarily expect it to be that low-scoring this time around, but I do believe points will be coming at a premium. I’m taking a look at that to especially occur in the beginning stages of this game.

According to DVOA, the Bucs have the number one-ranked first-half defense, compared to the Cowboys’ 22nd-ranked first-half offense. Conversely, Dallas has the 15th-ranked first-half defense and Tampa Bay has the 14th-ranked offense. Todd Bowles’ defense holds opponents to just 9.2 first-half points per game, and his offense averages just 8.6 throughout the first two quarters.

The only time we really see constant momentum out of Tom Brady’s offense is late in the game during a two-minute drill. The Bucs have also been incredibly inefficient in setting up the run game, and it won’t magically get better against one of the better defenses in the league. So I expect a slow start, per usual, out of Byron Leftwich’s offense.

As for their opponent, well, Dak Prescott has not been inducing any confidence in anyone as of late, especially when he went 14-37 for 128 yards with just one touchdown and one interception, against the Washington Commanders, in his final game of the regular season. And Tampa Bay’s defense has been an undervalued asset of their team this year. The Bucs’ defensive group, while statistically regressing from years past, has been the most impactful and the reason they have hung in games that they probably shouldn’t have been in. This will be an ugly, grind-it-out type of game and I think the best way to attack that from a betting perspective is in the first half.

Pick: First Half UNDER 22.5 (-110)