Today the NFL regular season comes to an end. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of Week 18 matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 44.5)

The Jaguars (4-12) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 20-13 win over the Titans, winning outright as 1-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Colts (7-9) just fell to the Giants 45-33, losing outright as 7.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the Colts at home. However, despite receiving 60% of spread bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen Indianapolis fall from -5 to -3.5. The movement toward Jacksonville has been steady and consistent all week without any notable buyback on Joe Flacco and the Colts. At Circa, the Jags are taking in 64% of spread bets and a whopping 92% of spread dollars, further evidence of heavy smart money out in Vegas grabbing the points with the road dog. The Jags have value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Road divisional dogs are 25-20 ATS (56%) this season with a 7% ROI.

Player Prop to Consider: Brian Thomas Jr. over 79.5 receiving yards (-120 at ESPNBET)

Thomas has gone over this number in four straight games. He just caught 7 passes for 91 yards last week against the Titans. Thomas Jr. has become Mac Jones’ go-to guy, receiving double-digit targets in five straight games. In Week 5, he faced the Colts and caught 5 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. Thomas might also enjoy a motivational edge as he was just snubbed for the Pro Bowl. The Colts are allowing 230.8 passing yards per game this season, ranking 26th in the NFL. Indianapolis just gave up 309 passing yards to Drew Lock last week. This game will also be played indoors, providing a fast track which benefits offensive production.

4:25 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1, 37.5)

The Dolphins (8-8) have won three of their last four games and just crushed the Browns 20-3, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Jets (4-12) have dropped six of their last seven games and just got rolled by the Bills 40-14, failing to cover as 10-point road dogs.

This line opened with Miami listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Dolphins are expected to start backup QB Tyler Huntley in place of Tua Tagovaioloa, who is doubtful with a hip injury. However, the public is still backing Miami, with the Dolphins receiving 68% of spread bets at DraftKings and 63% of spread bets at Circa. Despite Miami receiving a majority of tickets, we’ve seen this line move in favor of the Jets +2.5 to -1. This signals a sharp “dog to favorite” line move on New York. At Circa, the Jets are only receiving 37% of spread bets but a whopping 72% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in their favor. In other words, sharps look to be fading the trendy dog Dolphins and instead backing the unpopular home favorite Jets. The movement toward New York is especially notable because this game was sitting at a pick’em yesterday and has now moved to Jets -1 on gameday. Late movement is always important because it takes place when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in.

Those looking to follow the sharp line move but also gain some added security in what might be a close game could elect to play New York on the moneyline at -120. At DraftKings, the Jets are only receiving 35% of moneyline bets but 56% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of smart money playing New York to win straight up. Weather could also provide the Jets an added edge, as the forecast calls for mid 20s with 10-12 MPH winds. Historically, the warm weather Dolphins have struggled in cold temperatures. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 41 to 37.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 43% of bets but 64% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 79% of bets and 87% of dollars.

8:20 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3, 56.5)

The Vikings (14-2) have won nine straight games and just outlasted the Packers 27-25, covering as 1-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Lions (14-2) have won two in a row and just took down the 49ers 40-34, covering as 4-point road favorites.

This line opened with Detroit listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points, with 58% of spread bets at DraftKings and 57% of spread bets at Circa backing the Lions. However, despite receiving a majority of tickets, we’ve seen Detroit remain frozen at -3. In fact, several shops are juicing up Vikings +3 (-115), with a few others already falling down to +2.5. This signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on Minnesota plus the points (particularly at the key number of +3), as the line has either stayed the same or moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.

Minnesota has notable “bet against the public” value, as they are receiving a minority of tickets in a heavily bet, primetime game. At Circa, the Vikings are only getting 43% of spread bets but a hefty 72% of spread dollars, further evidence of pros grabbing the points in a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. The Vikings enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having played on Sunday while the Lions are on a short week having played in San Francisco and now traveling back home. Minnesota has additional value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Those looking to play Minnesota who might miss out on the +3 could also look at a Vikings “Wong Teaser” (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen heavy over movement as the number has risen from as low as 51.5 to 56.5. This is currently the highest total of the season. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 69% of bets and 63% of money. At Circa, the over is taking in 83% of bets and 80% of dollars.

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