Week 7 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

I guess I should be happy, for as good as the betting public has done over the last couple of weeks, that would normally be a horrible thing for myself and my bets. By now, you know that I prefer contrarian strategies, although I can stray from that strategy if I truly believe in a team. That said, I guess I can’t be too upset about a 4-5 ATS record in a week that sportsbooks across the country have described as “their worst ever.” Time to get back up again and produce. With a current season record of 29-21-2 ATS (58%), I press on to Week 7 in the NFL. After pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report, I have come up with this set of NFL Week 7 best bets.

 

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Seattle at Atlanta

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

Does something seem a little strange about the line for this Seattle-Atlanta contest on Sunday? Atlanta, seemingly on a roll now, is laying just 3 points at home to a Seattle team that has lost its last three games? What gives? Well, for one, we have a nice streak system in play indicating the Seahawks could be ready to rebound, at least against the number: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 21-61 SU but 51-29-2 ATS (63.8%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003. 

The greater percentage of bets are actually coming in on visiting Seattle, which isn’t a problem since, in another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). There’s also a very strong retread coach system regarding Atlanta and head coach Raheem Morris being favored: Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 83-64 SU but just 48-88-11 ATS, for 35.3%! The Falcons themselves are on skids of 18-33 ATS at home and 33-56 ATS as chalk. If you also consider that underdogs are on an 11-4-1 ATS run in the Seattle-Atlanta series, and the Seahawks offense has been playing well enough not to be on such a losing skid, they look like a live dog here.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Let’s go Seattle +3 at Atlanta

Miami at Indianapolis

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

It seems Colts QB Anthony Richardson will be brought back into the fold this week. I can see arguments on both sides of the fence as to whether or not sticking with Joe Flacco might be the better move. For the future of the franchise, probably not. For now, he is probably the better option. That said, Richardson and laying points doesn’t mesh well for me. I think Indy could be messing with success, and this streak system backs that thought: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 16-39 SU and 13-38-4 ATS (25.5%) in Game #4 since 2003. 

This head-to-head series has a long history of dog covers:  Underdogs are 14-2-1 ATS in the MIA-IND series since 1999. Bettors at DraftKings could be aware of this, as 75% of the handle is on Miami as of Thursday. Of note, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). Miami is also a 58% underdog cover over the last 10 years, going 48-35 ATS in that role. I think the win before the bye week was big for head coach Mike McDaniel’s team, and they will use that momentum to at least threaten the upset here.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Let’s take Miami +3 on the road at Indy

Detroit at Minnesota

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

Not looking at the records at all, which of these two NFC North powers do you believe is the “better” team? Yeah, me too. My current Bettors’ Ratings reflect the sentiment, with Detroit playing as an effective -3.4 point favorite on average, and Minnesota a -2 point favorite. In other words, the markets think Detroit is 1.5 points better. Detroit’s offense may be the best in football, and sure, they lost DE Aidan Hutchinson last week for the season, but even so, does anyone believe that the Vikings can outscore them, or even begin to think about holding the Lions down? 

Minnesota is off its bye week and should be ready and rested. However, for as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye week games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye, 5-9 SU and 4-9-1 ATS in the last 14. They have struggled as hosts in this series as well, with Detroit having won the last seven ATS vs. Minnesota. The team tendencies all sort of point one direction, with Detroit 39-16 ATS overall since 2021, including 19-11 ATS in the last 30 divisional games, while Minnesota has struggled at home, going 14-22 ATS since 2020. For as tough as it is to fade an undefeated team at home in a big game, I think the Lions are just as much up to the task here.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Let’s go Detroit +1.5 in the NFC North showdown

Philadelphia at NY Giants

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

I brought this up last week for an easy winner once again, but the “grandaddy totals trend of them all” concerning the Giants and QB Daniel Jones shows that since he took over as starting QB in 2019, New York is now 24-8-2 Under the total as a home underdog. The Giants typically play these situations close to the vest, knowing that they don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up if the game turns into a shootout. As it is, they are on an incredible 49-23 Under the total run since 2020. 

Speaking of offensive firepower, the Eagles have it…on paper only. There is something amiss about this Philly attack, for as much talent is supposedly in place, it is just not producing as it should. Until something changes there, I don’t see how we can continue to expect fireworks. Since its 34 points opening week outing, head coach Nick Sirianni’s team has scored just 18 PPG. This leaves me uncomfortable for them as a road favorite, but I’m also not confident in what we’re seeing from New York either. I side with the public on this one as 77% of the handle looks for an Under at DraftKings, and when 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). I can easily see a 20-16 type of game here.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 42.5 in Philly-NY Giants tilt

Carolina at Washington

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

I like it when it seems to be that lines are moving far too much on certain teams, as there are just certain thresholds that I believe teams aren’t ready for. One of them is being tagged with a line over a TD in the NFL. These types of chalk numbers should be reserved for only the league’s top teams. The rest have trouble in that huge favorite role. I believe this is the case for Washington, who goes from a 7-point dog one week to an 8-point favorite the next. Obviously, oddsmakers don’t think the Commanders are that ready for the big-time yet, or they wouldn’t have strapped them with such a big dog line last week. I agree, actually. 

While much improved overall, this is still a defense I don’t want to lay points with. They have allowed 30+ points on three different occasions in 2024, and the current allowances of 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 5.0 yards per rush attempt give the Panthers a real shot to score here. Concerning Commanders’ head coach Dan Quinn, did you know that retread head coaches are on a 48-88-11 ATS skid as favorites and are just 80-114-1 ATS at home over the last decade? Did you know Washington is on a 17-32 ATS skid when coming off an outright loss? If that weren’t enough, in the recent history of these two franchises, underdogs are 14-2 ATS in the series since 1995.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Got to stay contrarian with this one and back Carolina +8

Kansas City at San Francisco

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

The big Super Bowl rematch in San Francisco this weekend finds the Chiefs coming to town and looking to stay unbeaten. My gut says that they are ripe for the picking, and a hungry 49ers team is just the one to get it done. However, I’m getting fatigued with betting against KC as this team seemingly gets all of the breaks, and you can read between the lines on that one. That said, head coach Andy Reid’s team has been tremendous defensively and in wearing the opponent and clock down this season. I can’t recall a team being so effective in that in a long time. My effective offensive/defensive numbers show that KC is scoring 23.1 PPG, allowing just 15.6 PPG. 

This is how they win nowadays. It is less about Mahomes/Kelce and more about how good they are on the front lines on both sides of the ball. They are currently allowing just 3.8 yards per rush and 6.5 yards per pass attempt. San Francisco will find the going tough here offensively, regardless of what they’ve done the last few weeks in putting up nearly 30 PPG in their last three. With the Chiefs rested and coming off their bye week, there are two interesting trends in play: 1) Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 31-12 since 2021, 72.1%). 2) The Chiefs are 10-3-1 Under the total in their last 13 post-bye week games. This will be a well-played competitive game, but I give the defenses the edge.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 47 in Kansas City-San Francisco

Baltimore at Tampa Bay

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

If you’ve made it to this game in my best bets piece for the week, you’ve probably seen that I’ve liked all dogs and Unders so far. Well, I’m going to go away from that strategy this week and take my first favorite on Monday night, as I believe this is where the league’s current best team is playing. The numbers might not show it now, but that is my perception. A lot of my analytics are pointing to the Ravens here as well, despite what would seem to be a very tough game on paper and a very tough number to cover against an oft-explosive offense. 

In this head-to-head series, road teams are on a six-game ATS winning streak in the Baltimore-Tampa Bay series. In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 24-23 SU but 13-32-2 ATS (28.9%) in the last 47. Baltimore is also on an incredible 40-20-1 ATS run in road games, while Tampa Bay has struggled in primetime games, going 7-19 ATS in its last 26, as well as at home, 35-47 ATS over the last decade. As I indicated earlier, however, this does look like a tough spot to back a road favorite, since the Bucs have scored 114 points in their last three games. However, they’ve allowed 63 the last two weeks and Baltimore’s offense is red-hot, scoring 33.5 PPG in its last four. I think those behind the counter know that the Ravens will be moving the ball at will here.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet:  I’ll go Baltimore -3.5 at Tampa Bay

LA Chargers at Arizona

Monday, 9:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

For whatever reason, the total on this back-end MNF doubleheader game has caught the most one-sided handle action at DraftKings as of Thursday, with 90% of the money flowing toward an Over. On the surface, I guess it makes sense, as five of the Cardinals’ six games so far have produced at least 47 total points. However, below the surface is where winning sports betting information is usually found. Arizona’s offense is not clicking right now, and in the last three games, the “effective” point production is just 17.1 PPG. That unit is going to face a real test this week against a Chargers team that currently boasts my #1 Effective Points Allowed total at 15 PPG. 

This is not the Chargers team that we got used to under head coach Brandon Staley. Jim Harbaugh has brought the same mentality he won with at Michigan to the pro level. His teams win with physicality, ball control, and dominant defense. That is why I am surprised by the unusually high support for a higher-scoring game here. The 90% handle count doesn’t bode well, though, as it falls into what I’ve called the Over trap. When a supermajority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. 

Furthermore, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). This series has also seen Under the total go 3-0-1 in the last four of the Chargers-Cardinals series at Arizona. Of course, those of you who read the Analytics Report religiously each week also know that home underdogs on MNF produce Unders, 17-3-1 (85%)—in fact, in the last 21 games, they produced just 35.9 PPG. If all that weren’t enough, these franchises have produced regular MNF Unders as well: Arizona 7-2 Under in the last nine, LA Chargers 10-2 Under in the last 12.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: I’ll go UNDER 44 in LA Chargers-Arizona MNF game

For more NFL Week 7 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 7 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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