NHL Central Division Previews
Top to almost bottom, the Central was the strongest division in the NHL last season. The Blackhawks were the second-worst team in the league and got Artyom Levshunov second overall for their troubles. Otherwise, the Central had the best division 1 through 6 and was the only division to have at least five teams with 92 points.
The Stars had the second-most points in the NHL and are favored (+240) to repeat as division champs. The Avalanche (+250) are easily the biggest contender for the throne, but the much improved Predators (+380) are in the mix as well.
The new-look Jets under head coach Scott Arniel still have Connor Hellebuyck, which makes them dangerous at +800. The Wild are a scrappy crew at 11/1 and the Utah Hockey Club makes its NHL debut at 18/1. The Blues (+2500) and Blackhawks (+10000) have a lot of ground to make up to chase down the top teams in what is a stacked division.
This originally appeared in our 2024-25 NHL Betting Guide released on Sept. 24.
Chicago Blackhawks
Stanley Cup: +15000
Division: +10000
Points: 73.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes +900; No -1600
The Blackhawks made some moves this offseason in hopes of establishing a winning culture in the Windy City. Connor Bedard cannot do it alone, and it is unfair to expect too much from Artyom Levshunov, especially after he dealt with a foot injury over the summer. But, the front office has put some much better players around Bedard for this season in hopes of keeping the Blackhawks from being a laughingstock.
Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, and Patrick Maroon are some of the names up front and T.J. Brodie and Alec Martinez are some of the names on the back end. Those wily vets paired with some up-and-coming youngsters at least elevate the ceiling for Chicago. The division is still a beast, but this was a team that finished with a -111 goal differential and scored the fewest goals in the league with 179 last season.
Unfortunately, Bedard missed some important time with a fractured jaw and was limited to 68 games. He still led the team in points with 61. He was also -44, along with teammate Philipp Kurashev, who was second in points with 54. The Blackhawks were outscored 202 to 118 at 5-v-5. The Sharks were the only team that did worse in that game state, yet they did score one more 5-v-5 goal than Chicago.
Only the Ducks generated fewer scoring chances. Only the Sharks allowed more. Just about every metric for this team was bad last season. Arvid Soderblom was the worst goalie in GSAA out of 98 tracked netminders by Natural Stat Trick. All things considered, Petr Mrazek was really good with a 3.05 GAA, .908 SV%, and ranked 21st in GSAA at 6.65. He was one of the bright spots in an otherwise dim season.
There are some decent players on this team who were asked to play too many minutes. A lot of role guys were thrust into first and second-line or pairing minutes. This is a deeper team this season, though, and Bedard was nearly a point-per-game player with limited help and a target on his back.
Colorado Avalanche
Stanley Cup: +1300
Division: +250
Points: 102.5 (-120/-110)
Playoffs: Yes -525; No +380
It took one season for Jared Bednar to install what he wanted and get the players to buy in. Bednar’s Avalanche were 22-56-4 during the 2016-17 season, his first at the helm. Since then, the Avs have seven straight playoff appearances and one Stanley Cup. However, as great as Bednar has been in the regular season, the Avs have two first-round exits and four second-round exits aside from their title run.
But, from October to early April, this team is as good as any. Last year’s crew had 196 goals at 5-v-5, the second-most in the league. However, their expected goals for suggested 22 fewer tallies, so we’ll have to see if the Avs can stave off any potential regression in that department. Given that they were fourth in scoring chances and fourth in high-danger chances, they’ll probably be just fine.
Colorado’s Big Three with Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar truly drives the bus. Those guys combined for 220 assists on Colorado’s league-leading 304 goals. For good measure, they also combined to score 114 of them. It is as elite of a trio as you will find in the NHL. Valeri Nichushkin only played 54 games (53 points) as he spent time in the NHL/NHLPA Assistance Program, while Gabriel Landeskog missed the season due to multiple surgeries. Nichushkin is serving a six-month suspension, so he’ll be out until at least mid-November.
With those concerns in mind, the front office re-signed Jonathan Drouin and inked a few other depth guys in hopes of adding some more secondary punch. The Avs may need it. They scored 304 goals, but were only +50 in goal differential due to the struggles of Alexandar Georgiev, whose -11 GSAA ranked 88th out of 98 tracked netminders by Natural Stat Trick over 63 games.
Maybe Justus Annunen can share some of the burden and he was terrific in limited time with a 10 GSAA in just 14 games. The 2018 third-round pick had only started three games for the Avs before last season. This will be another good team, but if Annunen can shine or Georgiev can improve, they’ll be very tough to beat in the division.
Dallas Stars
Stanley Cup: +1100
Division: +240
Points: 103.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -600; No +425
Dallas finished three points clear of Winnipeg for the top spot in the Central Division last season, but there were a lot of toss-ups that went their way. The Stars won 12 games in overtime or a shootout last season, as their 40 regulation wins were fewer than Winnipeg and Colorado and their 48 regulation + overtime wins were four fewer than the Jets.
Despite their name, the Stars don’t have many of them. It was a balanced approach from Dallas with eight 20-goal scorers and a couple of 30-goal guys. Wyatt Johnston may be emerging as a star, but the rest of the team is just full of good players. All of those good players were enough to overcome something of a down year from Jake Oettinger, who was just 33rd in GSAA last season. After posting a 2.37 GAA with a .919 SV% in 2022-23, Oettinger took some steps back last year.
The Stars play their system very well. They were +32 in goal differential at 5-v-5 and could be even better if Oettinger returns to form. They were one of three teams with over 2,000 scoring chances at 5-v-5 and were among the league’s best at limiting high-quality chances for the opposition. Replacing Joe Pavelski won’t be easy, but this is arguably the deepest roster in the NHL up and down the depth chart.
Dallas should also get more this season from Logan Stankoven, who had 14 points in 24 games and eight points in 19 postseason games, as the Stars came up a couple games short against the Oilers after besting the Golden Knights and Avalanche.
Miro Heiskanen is one of the game’s steadiest two-way defensemen and he should have more help this season with a more physical defensive corps including Matt Dumba and Brendan Smith. The Stars look like a team with minimal weaknesses yet again.
Minnesota Wild
Stanley Cup: +3500
Division: +1100
Points: 93.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -135; No +105
It was a tale of two seasons for the Wild, as they started just 5-10-1 under Dean Evason before giving the keys to John Hynes. The slow start under Evason was a bit of a shocker after posting 103 points with a 46-25-11 record two seasons ago. That Wild team made the playoffs and got bounced by Dallas in the first round, but this one looked like a shell of that squad to open the season and moved on quickly.
The move nearly saved the season, as the Wild were 34-24-8 under Hynes, but the damage was already done in a division that leaves no margin for error. Minnesota played a strong defensive brand of hockey under Hynes, finishing with the fewest high-danger chances allowed at 5-v-5, but they also had the sixth-fewest high-danger chances for themselves. They also still finished -5 in 5-v-5 goal differential.
So, they’ll need to find a way to open things up a little bit. Unfortunately, they couldn’t do that in free agency because of a lot of dead cap money, so it’ll be on the guys in-house to step up. Kirill Kaprizov did last season with 46 tucks and 50 apples for a strong 96-point season. Joel Eriksson Ek chipped in 30 tallies and Matt Boldy had a breakout season with 29 and 40 assists. But, that’s pretty much where it stopped.
Minnesota got limited production from defensemen, as 22-year-old Brock Faber was the only one with more than 27 points, though Jonas Brodin would have gotten there if he wasn’t limited to 62 games. Still, the Wild don’t have a full-ice offensive attack, something the other teams in this division have.
Therefore, there is a lot of pressure on the guys in the crease. This will be the swan song season for Marc-Andre Fleury, who was -9.08 GSAA last season with a 2.98 GAA and an .895 SV%. None of the three goalies that played games had a .900 SV%. Filip Gustavsson wasn’t quite as bad, but he was bad. We could see more of 2021 first-round pick Jesper Wallstedt and maybe that won’t be a bad thing.
Nashville Predators
Stanley Cup: +1800
Division: +350
Points: 98.5 (-125/-105)
Playoffs: Yes -340; No +260
Teams that “win” the offseason get a lot of respect going into the new season and that is the case for the Predators. Nashville secured commitments from Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, as Barry Trotz started his second calendar year as a GM. The Predators snuck into the playoffs as a wild card in his first season with 99 points, but they’ll be hungry for more than a first-round exit this time around.
Second-year head coach Andrew Brunette, who played one quick season with Nashville in 1998-99, had a great first season in the Music City after what was an excellent rookie year in Florida during the 2021-22 campaign. He seems to have a good grasp of the gig and that’s all it takes to make it on Broadway.
I think the hype is warranted on the Preds. They were +15 in 5-v-5 goal differential last season with 168 goals, but their expected goals for metrics point towards being closer to 185. An extra 17 goals at 5-v-5 hardly seems like a big ask with the two dynamic additions and the puck possession that they are likely to have. Brady Skjei is also a nice addition on the back end, where depth is important because the guys logging the most minutes are on the plus side of 30, with the exception of Dante Fabbro.
That is the one big worry about Nashville. This is one of the older rosters in the NHL. But, that also means that a lot of these guys should complement each other well and Brunette can monitor ice time accordingly, especially in those back-to-back, 3-in-4, and 4-in-6 situations.
Juuse Saros led all goalies with 64 games last season, something that Trotz identified as a potential issue. He solved it by signing backup Scott Wedgewood. Saros was 25th out of 98 tracked netminders by Natural Stat Trick in GSAA. Perhaps he can elevate his numbers with a little more rest.
St. Louis Blues
Stanley Cup: +5500
Division: +2500
Points: 86.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes +205; No -255
The Western Conference is a bear. St. Louis had 92 points and finished six points out of the postseason. There were some self-inflicted wounds by not being able to finish games in regulation, as the loser points for other teams cheapen the value of a win. The Blues were 12-6 in overtime/shootout and division rivals took advantage of those points. Also, the Blues did finish -11 in goal differential and all eight Western Conference playoff teams were in the positive.
Quite simply, St. Louis didn’t score enough goals. They were 25th in PP% and only scored 151 goals at 5-v-5. That was the sixth-fewest 5-v-5 goals in the league. All of the teams below them missed the playoffs. Florida was just ahead of them, but the Panthers allowed a league-low 119 goals at 5-v-5 and the Blues allowed 167.
To be honest, the Blues were lucky to have the performance that they did at 5-v-5. Their expected goals against of 190.61 was the fourth-highest in the league. Jordan Binnington had an outstanding season between the pipes and he covered up a lot of holes on the team. Binnington finished sixth in GSAA at 16.35 and was among the league leaders with 57 games played.
St. Louis had one 30-goal scorer (Jordan Kyrou) and the unfortunate part is that they stayed pretty healthy in the top six. Seven forwards played at least 79 games. To make matters worse this season, they lost Torey Krug to season-ending surgery and he’s one of the better puck-movers on the back end.
A somewhat stunning development of the offseason is that St. Louis’s offer sheets were successful in getting Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg from the Oilers. Teams frequently match offer sheets, but Edmonton let those guys walk. Perhaps the Oilers’ loss is the Blues’ gain, but this team needs a lot more than that and they’re going to need another career year from Binnington to compete.
Utah Hockey Club
Stanley Cup: +5500
Division: +1800
Points: 87.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes +175; No -215
The inaugural season for the Utah Hockey Club is cause for all kinds of excitement in Salt Lake City. Will the roster be exciting? That’s the big question because Utah did not get an expansion team. This is the remnants of the Arizona Coyotes, who finished 36-41-5 last season with 77 points.
The roster does look similar in a lot of ways. Mikhail Sergachev was the big add over the offseason and some depth signings should help on the blue line, but this is a season about learning what Utah has in-house. Head coach Andre Tourigny was retained and he’s very familiar with a lot of the talent on the team because those guys played big roles last season.
Clayton Keller had 76 points in 78 games to lead the way last season as the team’s lone 30-goal scorer. Lawson Crouse, Nick Schmaltz, Nick Bjugstad, Michael Carcone and 19-year-old Logan Cooley all had 20 or more tucks. Dylan Guenther fell just short with 18 in his age-20 season. Josh Doan, son of Coyotes legend Shane Doan, had nine points in 11 games. He had 46 points in 62 games for the AHL Tucson Roadrunners. Speaking of sons of legends, Utah drafted Tij Iginla, son of Flames legend Jarome Iginla, in the 2024 NHL Draft.
So, this is a full-fledged youth movement. We’ll see if Iginla stays for more than a cup of coffee, as the NHL has a rule that 10 or more games played on an entry-level rookie deal enacts the first year of the contract. As a result, a lot of guys play up to nine games early in the season.
All things considered, Connor Ingram played well in net. He took the starter job over from Karel Vejmelka and had a .907 SV% with a 2.91 GAA in 50 games. He finished 26th in GSAA at 5.05, dramatically outshining Vejmelka, who was 83rd at -8.69.
The main intangible here is playing with a more excited fan base in a much better situation. How much will the team feed off of it? We will have to see.
Winnipeg Jets
Stanley Cup: +2500
Division: +800
Points: 95.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -200; No +160
One team allowed fewer than 200 goals last season. It was the Jets, who rode Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck to just their second season with over 100 points in franchise history. The other one came in 2017-18 with 114 points. That team made it to the conference finals. Last season’s Jets got bounced in the first round.
Rick Bowness retired after the season at the age of 69 and Scott Arniel was promoted to be the head coach. He had served as the associate head coach and was the acting head coach as Bowness tended to some family health issues at a couple of different points during the season. So, not much should change in Winnipeg this season and not much has changed with the roster either.
The Jets made a flurry of moves at the Trade Deadline with impending free agents and let those players walk. The core remained in place, though, including leading scorer Mark Scheifele and a very good two-way defenseman in Josh Morrissey. This was not a potent offensive roster, so it will be interesting to see if Winnipeg opens up a little bit more under Arniel or if they continue to play more of an opportunistic style on offense.
To their credit, the Jets did score 178 goals at 5-v-5 and had the best goal differential at +57, as they only allowed 121 goals. Hellebuyck’s season-long masterpiece was very much on display in that metric, as the expected goals for against the Jets was 164.5 per Natural Stat Trick. Hellebuyck’s 31.71 GSAA in all situations was more than 10 goals better than any other goaltender. Safe to say he was easily the best tendy in the league.
It is a winning formula to have a guy like Hellebuyck and score just enough, but it would be nice to see the Jets do more with the power play, which ranked 22nd. After all, if Hellebuyck is off, as he was against the Avs in the playoffs with 24 goals allowed in five games, having the firepower to battle back really matters.
