NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Saturday, March 22:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals (-110, 5.5)
5 p.m. ET
Alexander Ovechkin is just seven goals shy of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal-scoring mark of 894 goals. For his career, Ovi has 16 goals in 32 games against Panthers’ goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and 44 goals in 72 games against Florida. Ovi has one goal (empty net) in the two meetings (both Washington wins) this season between the two teams. That goal came with one second left in regulation in Capitals 6-3 win on February 4. Prior to this season, Florida had won seven straight regular season games against Washington. As always with Ovi, I will be attacking his anytime goal, third period goal and last goal of the game prop, as well as his shots on goal prop (Over 3.5). In the 32 games with Bobrovsky in goal, Ovechkin has averaged 4.28 shots on goal per game. As always, shop around. Fan Duel had the best prices on the Ovechkin props.
Florida’s Sam Bennett has three goals in four games against Caps goalie Logan Thompson.
NHL Predictions: Alex Ovechkin Over 3.5 SOG (+108) – 1 unit
Alex Ovechkin anytime goal (+140) – ¼ unit
Alex Ovechkin 3rd period goal (+460) – ¼ unit
Alex Ovechkin last goal (+900) – ¼ unit
Aliaksei Protas Over ½ point (+118) – ¼ unit
John Carlson Over ½ assist (+158) – ¼ unit
Sam Bennett anytime goal (+230) – ¼ unit
Colorado Avalanche (-185, 6.5) at Montreal Canadiens
7 p.m. ET
Two of the hottest teams meet tonight at the Bell Centre in Montreal as the Canadiens host the Colorado Avalanche. This game should receive top billing in Canada, but it will play second fiddle to that huge battle between the Leafs and the Predators. I feel better that I got this off my chest. The Avs have won nine of their last 11, while the Canadiens have eight wins and just one regulation loss in their last 12 games. Montreal won the only meeting between the two teams this season (2-1 shootout win at Colorado) and have won the last three overall. Eight of the last 10 meetings have gone under the total, but the two games to go Over the total were the last two meetings in Montreal (4-3 Canadiens, 8-4 Avalanche).
While the Avalanche are in a good position to make the playoffs, they are trying to catch the Dallas Stars for second place (three points back) in the Central Division. At the same time, they’re trying to hold off the Minnesota Wild, who currently sit in a Wild Card spot but trail the Avs by just four points and have played one fewer game.
Meanwhile, the Canadiens’ recent surge has put them into a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, just two points up on the Islanders and Rangers and with Columbus and Detroit just behind the New York teams.
There are some player props that I do like in this game. Colorado’s Brock Nelson has 17 goals in 31 games versus the Canadiens and six goals in 10 games against Canadiens expected starting goalie Samuel Montembeault. The Canadiens Nick Suzuki has 19 points (13 assists) in his last 12 games overall and has six assists in his last eight games against the Avalanche.
NHL Predictions: Nick Suzuki Over ½ assist (+106) – ¼ unit
Brock Nelson anytime goal (+270) – ¼ unit
1st period Over 1.5 (-138) – 1 unit
Calgary Flames at NY Islanders (-135, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Flames and Islanders both sit two points out of a playoff spot in their respective conferences. The Flames have won back-to-back games over the Rangers and Devils and now play their fourth game in six days. Thursday, Calgary scored four times in the third period, erasing a 3-1 deficit for a 5-3 win. The victory was just the Flames third in 29 games (3-22-4) when trailing after two periods. The Isles are riding a three-game win streak of their own following Thursday’s 4-3 overtime win over the Canadiens. Calgary has won seven of the last 10 meetings between the two teams, including a 2-1 shootout win in Calgary back in November. It was the third time in the last five matchups that they have needed extra time to decide a winner. I don’t like this spot for Calgary, who will be playing their fourth game in six days. Add to that, the Islanders are 12-5 this season when playing on Saturday.
The Flames do get a break as the Islanders will be giving backup goalie Marcus Hogberg just his second start in 13 days. Hogberg has faced the Flames twice in his career, going (1-1) with 2.02 goals against average and a .941 save percentage. He has won two of his last three starts overall, including a win over the Carolina Hurricanes.
A couple of player props that have my attention. Calgary’s Jonathan Huberdeau has six points in his last five games. For his career, he has 17 assists in 28 games versus the Islanders. The Islanders’ Simon Holmstrom has goals in three straight games as he has taken advantage of his opportunity on the top line. Defenseman Noah Dobson has points in three straight.
NHL Predictions: Jonathan Huberdeau Over ½ assist (+164) – ¼ unit
Simon Holmstrom anytime goal (+310) – ¼ unit
Simon Holmstrom Over ½ assist (+172) – ¼ unit
Noah Dobson Over ½ assist (+132) – ¼ unit
New York Islanders ML (-135) – 1.25 units
Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights (-205, 5.5)
8 p.m. ET
These two teams met six days ago in Detroit, with the Red Wings blanking the Golden Knights 3-0. Unlike six days ago when Vegas was on the back end of a back-to-back, playing their third game in four days and their fourth game in six days, the Knights are back home and rested, playing just their second game in six days. This is the front end of a back-to-back for the VGK as they host Tampa on Sunday. Normally, I would be concerned that the Knights would be looking ahead to playing one of the league’s best teams in the Tampa Bay Lightning, but I get the sense from those close to the team that the Knights want payback from last Sunday’s loss in Detroit and not looking ahead to Sunday. Detroit has struggled coming out of the 4 Nations tournament with just four wins in 13 games. They have lost twice each to Carolina, Washington and Columbus. The victories were over Minnesota, Buffalo, Anaheim and Vegas.
Two goal props that I like for today are Pavel Dorofeyev and Tomas Hertl. Dorofeyev had the hat trick on Thursday versus Boston. He has six goals in his last five games and leads the team with 30. Tomas Hertl’s 17 goals on home ice lead the team. He has scored a goal in nine of his last 11 home games (11 total).
NHL Predictions: Vegas Golden Knights in Regulation (-130) – 1.5 units
Pavel Dorofeyev anytime goal (+210) – ¼ unit
Tomas Hertl anytime goal (+210) – ¼ unit
Jack Eichel Over ½ assist (-111) – ¼ unit
Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers (-160, 5.5)
10 p.m. ET
It’s going to be a different look for the Oilers tonight when they hit the ice tonight with both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl out of the lineup. The two superstars are dealing with injuries that will have them on the sidelines for at least the next seven days. The dynamic duo are second and fourth in the points race, respectively, and then there is a drop-off to Ryan Nugent Hopkins to 114th in scoring. So where do the goals come from with the two superstars out? I will look at Zach Hyman, who has eight goals in 12 games versus Seattle and Jeff Skinner has seven goals in seven games against the Kraken.
The Kraken are coming off being shut out by Minnesota on Wednesday and land in our system play of a goal to be scored in the opening 10 minutes. One other system play has me on the Over 5.5 for tonight. Seattle is 12-4 to the Over following a loss.
NHL Predictions: Goal 1st 10/Yes (-154) – 1 unit
Over 5.5 (-128) – 1 unit
Jeff Skinner anytime goal (+240) – ¼ unit
Zach Hyman anytime goal (+144) – ¼ unit
