EPL Best Bets and Predictions April 12-14:
Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Liverpool vs. West Ham
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
We banked more profit in last week’s column, and I am looking to keep the good form going heading into the closing weeks of the Premier League season. My best bet of the weekend slate is a very unusual pick from me. It’s not often I play both teams to score, let alone have it as my strongest play, but there is a standout selection, and it comes in the fixture involving the champions elect.
Liverpool have had an exceptional season and more than done enough to win what, in my opinion, has been a bang average Premier League. Bizarre to think that even though that has been the case, Arsenal are peaking at the right time to potentially go on and win the Champions League after dismantling Real Madrid 3-0 on Tuesday.
Taking nothing away from Arne Slot and his men, they will deservedly lift the title in the coming weeks, but they are not the best side in England on current form. That honor goes to the Gunners in my book. The Reds are on the decline, and you can see that in their performances, having played a lot of soccer this campaign, they look tired and haven’t looked the same since that defeat to PSG in the Champions League.
There was no bounce back in the League Cup final where they were comprehensively beaten by Newcastle despite the 2-1 scoreline. Subsequent league games against Everton and Fulham have seen them look nothing more than bang average.
They want the season done, collect the trophy, have a party, and get off on holiday. Clear up the injuries, put the contractual sagas, which seem to be ending with Salah and van Dijk re-signing behind them, and recharge ahead of defending their title.
I think they are looking vulnerable in every game right now, and they are particularly vulnerable in conceding goals. They have a superb back-up goalkeeper in CaoimhÃn Kelleher, but he is no Alisson Becker, who is one of if not the best in the world in his position.
Defensively, they are all over the place. Makeshift right back Curtis Jones can’t get his positioning correct. They miss Trent Alexander-Arnold not only for his incredible offensive output, but also for his defense. On the other side, Andy Robertson is having a noticeable dip in form.
Bottom four sides Wolves, Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton have all scored at Anfield over the last three months. West Ham will fancy their chances of following suit. For the first time in a long while, the Hammers have a fully fit squad to choose from. One thing they do have is goal scorers with the likes of Jarrod Bowen and Niclas Füllkrug fresh after recovering from injury.
The German international scored last week in only his second appearance since missing nine games with a hamstring injury. He was a big part of a really good team performance against Bournemouth in a game they should have won but ultimately had to settle for a 2-2 tie.
Expect more goals here in what could be one of those crazy end-of-season dead rubbers. Liverpool have won the title; West Ham will finish mid-table, but plenty of their players need to impress Graham Potter ahead of his first full season in charge.
EPL Pick: Liverpool vs West Ham – Both teams to score at -115.
Newcastle vs Manchester United
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
This looks a great spot for Newcastle, who have impressed since winning the League Cup four weeks ago. They tend to fly out of the traps, especially at home, and I am taking them to do so again by betting them to win the first half.
The plus money quotes for them to do that look generous when you take into account that they are -162 to win the game.
Eddie Howe’s men have won their last four games across all competitions, including winning that first trophy in over 70 years. The most recent win came on Monday when they cruised past Leicester 3-0. What would have pleased the manager is they did that without their top scorer, Alexander Isak, getting on the scoresheet.
Proof as if it was needed that they have goals throughout the side, Jacob Murphy is in the form of his life and scored two goals in the opening 11 minutes against the Foxes. Harvey Barnes came in for the injured Anthony Gordon and capped an impressive display by getting on the scoresheet too.
Here they face Manchester United at just the right time. The Red Devils face a really tough Europa League quarterfinal first leg in Lyon on Thursday prior to this game and will have one eye on the second leg the following Thursday.
Ruben Amorim’s side just doesn’t look like scoring goals with a front two in Rasmus Højlund and Joshua Zirkzee that would struggle to make it into the starting lineup of the bottom three teams in the Premier League. They are now almost completely reliant on Bruno Fernandes.
To emphasize that problem, Manchester United have only scored in the first half of three of their 15 league road games this term. Trailing at half time in three of their last four away from home.
In contrast, with their passionate support roaring them on, even more than normal in recent weeks, Newcastle have scored in the first half of 11 of their 14 home league games this season. They have been leading at half time in 10 of those fixtures and in seven of the last eight.
This looks like the perfect opportunity to improve that impressive statistic further. As was the case in the reverse fixture, which Newcastle won 2-0 at Old Trafford, with two goals in the opening 20 minutes.
EPL Pick: Newcastle vs Manchester United – Newcastle to win the first half +115.
Bournemouth vs. Fulham
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
The market and traders continue to favor Bournemouth. Readers of this column in the last two weeks will know I disagree. I have the opportunity to fade them once more in this Monday fixture and I will do so.
Ipswich beat them at +800. West Ham should have beaten them at +225 but failed to convert their chances.
This time around, I just feel nothing has been factored in to take into account Bournemouth’s recent decline. They are 10th in the league and in danger of ending the season in the bottom half when a few weeks ago it looked like they could have a real chance of finishing in the top six.
Evanilson is back and scoring, but they miss Justin Kluivert and don’t look the same side without him. They haven’t won in eight games across all competitions. Last month’s disappointing exit in the quarter final of the FA Cup to Man City seems to have taken everything out of them.
Drill into just their home form and they have no wins since January, losing five of their last six at the Vitality Stadium. Here they take on a Fulham side that have much more to play for.
Currently eighth in the table, that position is likely to be good enough to qualify for European soccer next season, a huge achievement for the club. Marco Silva clearly believes his side is good enough to do that, and I agree with him.
I have no idea how the Cottagers can be priced as big as +230. This is a side that travels to the south coast off the back of their best win of the season, coming from behind to beat the champions-electt Liverpool 3-2 last weekend.
The biggest signal that gave me was that this is a side that has not given up on the season. They could easily have folded, but they did not, instead fighting back and richly deserving of their win.
What is more, Fulham seem to be better suited to playing on the road. Proved by the fact that they have scored in 18 of their 19 away games this season.
Based on these odds, the market would make Bournemouth the favorite in a game played at a neutral venue. I totally disagree with that. So for the third consecutive week, I will fade the Cherries and take Fulham to win at big odds.
EPL Pick: Bournemouth vs Fulham – Fulham to win at +230.
