EPL Best Bets and Predictions August 29-31
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Tottenham vs. Newcastle
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
The new Premier League season couldn’t have got off to a better start for us last week as we posted a perfect 3-0, and I am looking to keep the momentum rolling into Matchweek 2. The second round sees three really strong picks with a mix of goal line value, a handicap play and a “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” clean sheet angle.
As regular readers know, I’m not usually an Overs bettor, but I can’t resist taking the plus money on the Over 3 Asian total in this one. We need four goals to secure a win but have the safety net of a full refund if there are exactly three.
Tottenham’s opening day 3-0 hammering at Brentford was a miserable result for a side hoping for much improvement on successive 17th-place finishes. What that performance immediately highlighted was that Roberto De Zerbi’s new-look side are still a work in progress defensively, while the club continues to invest heavily in attack.
Spurs have spent more than $400 million over the summer, having this week added Savio from Manchester City for an initial $100 million. His teammate Omar Marmoush is set to join him in London initially on loan with an obligation to buy this time next year.
The new signing scored and assisted in a 20-minute cameo off the bench in a 5-1 cup thrashing of Championship side Charlton on Wednesday. He will expect to start this one.
After a horrific close to the season which saw the sale of several key players and long-standing head coach Eddie Howe leave the club, Newcastle fans came into the new campaign fearing the worst. They would have been pleased with their side’s performance against Liverpool, with only a late penalty denying them a victory from a game they led twice but had to settle for a 2-2 tie.
Given the loss of last season’s top scorer Bruno Guimarães, Anthony Gordon and Sandro Tonali, the Toon showed plenty of attacking threat, with Yoane Wissa looking back to his best. The bigger concern for Matthias Jaissle will be defensive lapses of concentration and allowing a week-high 27 attempts at goal. The 3-2 midweek defeat of second-tier West Brom in the cup followed a similar pattern.
All of that points to goals at both ends, as does the recent history between the two sides. The last 13 meetings have averaged over four goals per game, with both teams scoring in 12 of those clashes and only the 1-1 tie in 2020 seeing fewer than three goals.
Given the defensive uncertainty on both sides and the attacking talent available, I’m comfortable taking the plus-money price.
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham vs Newcastle – Over 3 Asian total at +102.
Manchester United vs. Ipswich
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
Manchester United were one of the biggest disappointments of the opening weekend, slumping to a shock 2-0 defeat at Hull City. They immediately get the chance to right that wrong as they take on another newly promoted side in the shape of Ipswich but this time with home advantage.
I am taking them to bounce back and do just that, betting them on the -1.25 Asian Handicap meaning a United win by exactly one goal results in only a half-loss, while a victory by two or more cashes the ticket in full. The manner of that loss last week makes this play look a little less comfortable than it would have been prior to it, but it also creates opportunity, as a convincing win would have seen this line nearer 2.0.
Quite often the market reacts too heavily to a negative result or performance in the first match of the season, and I think that is the case here. We don’t necessarily have to rip up our original strategy around a team and instead take advantage of a better opportunity than expected.
Michael Carrick’s side simply must respond, and anything other than a convincing win will see the pressure on him already mount. Bruno Fernandes, Youri Tielemans, Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo, who all disappointed against the Tigers, should get the opportunity to show their quality here, but the likes of Marcus Rashford and Benjamin Sesko wait in the wings should they fail to do so.
Ipswich have invested heavily in an attempt to stay in the Premier League, and credit to them for a 2-1 victory over Sunderland on their return to the top-flight. Old Trafford should be a completely different environment.
The Red Devils had the third-best home record last season. They won eight of their nine home league games under Carrick, scoring 21 goals in the process, only failing to score multiple times once.
Expect a response in front of their own fans from United with a much more aggressive performance and a victory by at least a two-goal margin against another of the new boys.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester United vs Ipswich – Manchester United -1.25 Asian Handicap at -114.
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
We’re going back to the well with this one.
Arsenal to win to nil was my most confident play in our successful Matchweek 1 selections, and the price on the same bet is jumping out at me for their trip to Villa Park. This game is the Monday fixture, which also saw a winning pick last week.
The reigning champions cruised to a comprehensive 3-0 victory over newly promoted Coventry with Martin Ødegaard outstanding and new signing Christos Tzolis amongst a clutch of top performances. The visitors were restricted to only four shots with an expected goals number of just 0.2, the lowest of the week.
Usually, a trip to face Aston Villa would represent one of the sternest tests of the campaign, but this is no normal time. Unai Emery has lost several key members of his Europa League-winning squad who finished fourth last term, with main striker Ollie Watkins and goalkeeper Emi Martinez set to join the exodus.
The Villains could have hardly made a worse start to the season, thrashed 4-0 by Brighton, who scored all those goals in the first half. New signing João Gomes added to their misery by being sent off before the break and consequently will be absent from this fixture.
Arsenal is -200 to win, which given the circumstances is understandable, but the boost to a massive +140 for them to do so and prevent the home side from scoring is impossible to ignore. In the absence of a recognized striker, diminutive midfielder Emi Buendia was deployed as a “false 9,” and the proposed reinforcements are unlikely to sign in time to impact this match.
A reminder that the Champions conceded only 27 goals last season in the 38 fixtures on route to the title, while Villa started the campaign by failing to score in their opening four league games, including two at home.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs Arsenal – Arsenal to win to nil at +140.
