EPL Best Bets and Predictions October 31-November 1
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Liverpool vs. Arsenal
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
Eight rounds of the 2026/27 Premier League campaign in the books, Manchester City and Arsenal sit locked together at the summit, for now, with City holding the edge on goal difference after a first league defeat of the season. The midweek EFL Cup slate delivered drama: Liverpool edged Chelsea on penalties after a 1-1 tie, Manchester City survived Brighton by the same route following a 2-2 stalemate, and Arsenal suffered a stunning exit to League Two Fleetwood Town also on spot-kicks.
Taking all of fatigue, rotation, and psychological hangovers into account, here are my three best value plays of the weekend.
Arguably, the game of the weekend is at Anfield, where two sides meet who were both in domestic cup action this week, as mentioned, and also travel away in the Champions League on Wednesday. That always creates a dilemma for managers as they try to share the workload, but it adds another factor for us bettors.
Arsenal has something of an injury crisis throughout the team with defenders Riccardo Calafiori not fully fit and William Saliba still a couple of weeks off a return. In midfield, Declan Rice is having to manage a thigh problem, while there are real issues in attack with Bukayo Saka and Christos Tzolis out, Max Dowman suspended and Noni Madueke struggling with an ankle injury.
A combination of those potential absentees and a terrible record, which sees them without a win at Anfield since 2012, should see Liverpool well bet here in the lead-up to kickoff. The Gunners aren’t firing currently, and after that embarrassing defeat in midweek I believe they will want to keep this very tight.
The home side will also fancy this. Their rotated side took care of Chelsea in midweek; in Alexander Isak, they have a striker back to his best, and we are finally seeing why Florian Wirtz commanded such a huge fee. Let’s also not forget after signing off at Bournemouth with a 19-game unbeaten run, Andoni Iraola has only lost one of his 13 games in charge of Liverpool.
But for me, I have to bet the Unders here, and I like it so much it is clear as my best bet of the weekend. Under 2.5 goals at -105 looks like a huge value play.
The two meetings last season could hardly have been lower scoring! This fixture ended in a 1-0 win for the hosts as a result of a wonder goal, with the return at the Emirates ending 0-0. Two incredibly dire matches.
Mikel Arteta has struggled to shake off a reputation for going to the bigger clubs in the league and setting out not to get beat. I believe that is exactly what he will do again here.
They won’t care if this is another bore draw or if they can nick it from a set piece or moment of brilliance. Ultimately, either way leads to that Under 2.5 goals, and that makes it a complete lock for me.
EPL Best Bet: Liverpool vs Arsenal — Under 2.5 goals at -105.
Manchester City vs. Brighton
Saturday, 11:00 a.m. ET
Brighton have really impressed me this season, and despite what is, in essence, two defeats this week, my opinion of them hasn’t changed. They were excellent against Liverpool last weekend, dominated the second half, and I have no idea how they failed to score. The Seagulls were also the better side for most of the midweek cup tie at City but, after taking the lead twice, were pegged back on both occasions before exiting on penalties.
That game ended 2-2 after regular time, and this “rematch” also screams goals. Manchester City’s last six fixtures across all competitions have seen 31 goals at over five per game, with both teams scoring in all but one of those. The last seven have all cashed for Over 2.5 goals, with five seeing at least five goals, two featuring six plus a 5-3 home win over Sunderland cashing for Over 7.5 goals bettors!
With an attack-minded head coach like Fabian Hürzeler in charge, it’s no surprise to see plenty of goals when he takes his side on the road. As well as that midweek 2-2 tie, we’ve already seen 5-0 and 3-2 wins at Coventry and Manchester United, as well as a crazy 4-3 defeat to Chelsea.
One thing we have seen consistently from Enzo Maresca this season is getting his side to come out fast, especially on home soil. They have scored at least twice in the first half of four of their last five at the Etihad across all competitions, while in the other they trailed 3-0 to PSG at the break.
Brighton have only conceded seven league goals this season, but strangely six of them have come in the first half. However, they can nearly double that tally at the other end, firing in 11 goals of their own before the interval.
All of which points towards another goal-filled opening 45 minutes in Manchester on Saturday, with both sides set to carry on where they left off in midweek. Every market is reflective of that, Over 3.5 is the goal line, with both teams to score priced at -220.
However, Over 1.5 first-half goals is set at what feels like a template price of +105. It certainly doesn’t fit in with those other odds or the stats I outlined earlier. That makes it the perfect way to get goals onside for me. It’s cashed in the last five City home games and in five of Brighton’s eight in the league across all venues. It’s set to cash again here.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester City vs Brighton – Over 1.5 First Half Goals at +105.
Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace
Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET
After successive wins over Coventry at home and Chelsea on the road, are Tottenham back? Well, time will tell, but the most significant thing for me is that after eight rounds of Premier League matches and despite a poor start on seven occasions, Spurs’ price on a Thursday has been shorter on match day. Significant players, data analysts, and big bankrolls are supporting Roberto De Zerbi’s side.
I am betting them here, and I am taking them on the -1 Asian Handicap at -118.
However, that has little to do with Spurs and everything to do with what is happening at Crystal Palace. They are a club in serious trouble, a club that can’t stop conceding goals and struggles to score them. Not a recipe for success in any day or age.
Palace have shipped a league-high 19 goals already this campaign at nearly 2.5 per game. Their expected goals against is only better than one other team, and they have allowed more attempts from set-pieces than any other side.
Last time on the road in the Premier League, Pierre Sage saw his side hammered 5-0 by Brighton and were 3-0 down inside 10 minutes. They followed that up with a tame 2-0 defeat at home to Newcastle, and they just find so many different ways to concede goals.
This is likely the worst moment to be facing Tottenham in some time. The crowd are excited about what the future could hold under De Zerbi and will still be buzzing from that rare win against Chelsea – only their second there in 36 years.
Tottenham are starting to click, some of their big players are beginning to look the part, and they have had a week to prepare for this while their opponents battled out a victory in a dour London derby with Fulham. I feel there is a big win on the horizon, and it may well be Saturday against the Eagles.
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace – Tottenham -1 Asian Handicap at -118.
