The EPL returns after the international week, and I am glad for the break after my disappointing showing for Matchday Eight.
We have two huge matches and local derbies this weekend, and I have wagers on both. Enjoy, and let’s cash some tickets!
Liverpool vs. Everton
Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
What a huge game we have to mark the return of Premier League soccer after the international break. The Merseyside derby is one of the biggest fixtures of the season, and there is a bet I really like the look of.
Liverpool, priced at -250 at the time of writing, are always a public play and have been bet hard, which will see them kick off as big favorites. Always be cautious about taking such odds immediately after an international break, with players flying back for domestic action after having been to all parts of the globe. The moneyline holds no interest for me here as my selection is based on the number of cards being shown.
Many years ago, certain games always saw an incredibly high number of bookings, this being one. However, with the influx of signings from abroad and less “homegrown” talent in the starting line-up, the amount of cards shown dropped.
What caught my eye was last time out, Everton fielded eight English players with a further four from the UK on the bench. With several from the local area, they will be fully aware of the importance of this fixture, how huge it is, and what it means to their fans.
The referee is Craig Pawson, and this will be his ninth match of the season. So far, he has shown 40 yellow cards and sent one player off, averaging 5.12 cards per game.
When taking charge of the big fixtures this season, that spikes considerably, showing six in his recent Champions League appearance, eight in Newcastle vs. Brentford, and 10 in the recent Wolves vs. Manchester City upset. Interestingly, he was the referee for Everton vs. Wolves at the start of the campaign and issued seven yellow cards.
This is undoubtedly his biggest appointment of the season in what is always a game played in a white-hot atmosphere. With points vital for both sides at opposite ends of the table, I was surprised to see the line for cards set at 5.5 and available to be backed at plus money.
This clash has seen 22 red cards in its Premier League history, with no fixture being able to top that number. For their part, Liverpool have already seen four players sent off from their opening eight league games.
A combination of new, feisty players up for the fight being brought into the Reds side with the large homegrown contingent for the Blue half of Merseyside lends itself perfectly to a busy afternoon for a ref that isn’t scared to get his cards out. Even more so with the new directive to clamp down on time-wasting and dissent, which has seen an increase in the number of cards shown on average in the Premier League.
Pick: Over 5.5 cards at +128.
Bournemouth vs. Wolves
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
One of the biggest shocks of the international break was that no Premier League manager was sacked during what is a notoriously popular time for clubs to make a change. However, if Bournemouth loses this one, I would be even more shocked if Andoni Iraola survived.
Much was expected of the Spaniard when he was brought in to replace Gary O’Neil on the same day he was sacked in June. The Cherries bankrolled their new boss and spent large sums of money on rebuilding the squad, but it just isn’t working. To make matters worse, they are conceding goals at an alarming rate, having shipped 10 in the last three league games, including a terrible 3-0 defeat at relegation rivals Everton.
All this after O’Neil had guided the club to a respectable 15th-placed finish last term with 10 wins in his 34 games in charge. Surviving the drop despite being bottom of the table after 25 matches, as well as defeating Liverpool and Spurs along the way, did not stop owner Bill Foley from making a change to implement a different style of play.
While Iraola is still waiting for that first win, which may never come, the man he replaced has been snapped up by Wolves. Already rewarding that faith by recording a famous victory against the treble-winning champions.
I generally seem to struggle to get a read on Wolves, but such is my strong opinion on fading Bournemouth. I’m getting them onside here. The return of O’Neil was the deciding factor.
The 40-year-old manager will have huge motivation to show his former employers what they are missing and will have his new side well up for this. Bringing some good form to the clash certainly helps.
Not only that 2-1 victory over Manchester City, which shook the Premier League, but following that up with a very creditable 1-1 draw with an in-form Aston Villa side kept the positivity flowing. A huge four points has lifted them to 14th in the table and gives them a four-point cushion to the relegation zone.
The final factor here is the weather, which is often underestimated as to its impact on any sport. The forecast wet and windy conditions will suit the visitor’s strong, physical, robust squad more than that of the hosts, who are more technical but a little lightweight.
I wouldn’t put anyone off taking Wolves on the moneyline here at a big price, but I’m playing with a little caution, so it is the “Tie No Bet” (Asian Handicap 0) market for me. This means we get a full refund of our stake if the game ends all square.
Pick: Wolves tie no bet at +112.
Chelsea vs. Arsenal
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Another big derby clash, and this time it is in London. Chelsea picked up a couple of wins before the international break to give their fans hope they are finally hitting some good form under Mauricio Pochettino. As for Arsenal, they recorded a huge victory against Manchester City and will visit Stamford Bridge as one of only two sides yet to be beaten in the Premier League.
Those two wins for the Blues did come on the road, though maybe as a result of less pressure from their expectant home support. They lost their last two games at the Bridge 1-0 to Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa, with scoring goals continuing to be a problem.
They did score four last time out against newly promoted strugglers Burnley, but that was the first time they scored four or more goals in 71 competitive fixtures. They will find this Arsenal side a much tougher nut to crack.
The Gunners are yet to concede a goal away from home in the league, winning their opening two road games 1-0 before sweeping a feeble Bournemouth aside 4-0. Mikel Arteta also saw his men record a 1-0 win away at Brentford in the Carabao Cup.
This represents another tough test for Arsenal, with the home side showing improvement, and prior to that, despite their struggles, Chelsea had at least been tight defensively. In fact, only the Gunners themselves and Manchester City have conceded fewer league goals this term.
All of which leads me to backing Under 2.5 goals. The Blues have failed to score in 13 Premier League matches in 2023, while the visitors have kept 13 clean sheets in 22 road games since the start of last season to help post the best away record in the English top flight over that period.
Three of Chelsea’s four home league games have cashed Unders – with the 3-0 defeat of Luton the only one to see over 2.5 goals. Two of Arsenal’s three league games away from home have also seen Unders cash.
With the Gunners winning two of the last three meetings between these sides here 1-0, that looks like a likely outcome. With the worst of the English weather predicted to hit the capital city just around kickoff, a wet and windy night in West London is the final contributing factor for me, which makes Under 2.5 goals a value play.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals at -106
