After a blockbuster quarter-final match against Carlos Alcaraz at the 2025 Australian Open, Novak Djokovic doesn’t exactly have a cupcake opponent waiting for him. The 24-time Grand Slam champion will now have to face Alexander Zverev, who finished the 2024 season as the ATP Tour’s second-ranked player. And while this match might not have the same marquee billing as the other one, there is a decent chance it ends up being a better on-court product. Alcaraz really didn’t bring his best stuff in the quarterfinals, and Zverev is a tough matchup for Djokovic. With that in mind, keep reading for our Djokovic vs. Zverev analysis, predictions and best bets.
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Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Accurate as of Tuesday, January 21st at 5:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Djokovic -150, Zverev +120
Spread: Djokovic -2.5 Games (-110), Zverev +2.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 40.5 Games (-115), Under 40.5 Games (-105)
How To Watch Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev
Where: Rod Laver Arena at Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia
When: Friday, January 24th (Australian Eastern Daylight Time)
Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev Predictions
Djokovic absolutely stunned Alcaraz in their quarter-final match. The 24-time Grand Slam champion brought mental warfare to his 21-year-old rival. When it came to the play, the Serb delivered a masterful serving performance, picking on Alcaraz’s weak forehand return relentlessly. He also pushed the Spaniard around from the baseline, waiting out mistakes from the highly erratic Alcaraz. Djokovic also put nonstop pressure on Alcaraz’s serve, which had looked much improved before the Spaniard faced the 10-time Aussie Open champion. On top of all that, Djokovic played some games with Alcaraz’s mind. The Serb hurt his groin early in the match. Don’t let anybody tell you he faked it. But Djokovic probably milked it a bit, and Alcaraz was suckered into playing sloppy tennis on the other end of the net. Djokovic was also able to get the crowd in his favor, and the Spaniard hasn’t played many matches without the full support of the fans. All of it amounted to Alcaraz racking up unforced errors, looking visibly rattled and playing one of the worst matches we’ve seen from him late in a major.
Djokovic will now look to build on the performance in his match against Zverev, and the Serbian is 8-4 against the German in his career. However, the most recent of those matches was played in Cincinnati in 2023, when Djokovic was a bit better and Zverev was a bit worse. Zverev is going to feel pretty good about the way he matches up in this one, especially with Djokovic carrying an injury into this battle.
It took way too long for Alcaraz to realize it, but extending rallies and playing great defense is a good way to take down Djokovic — especially when the 37-year-old is dealing with an injury. There were a few points late in the fourth set in which Alcaraz did that, and he might have gotten himself back in the match if he committed to it. He also would have won the match if he started doing it much sooner. Well, Zverev might look like a player that plays an aggressive brand of tennis, as he is 6-foot-6 and has one of the biggest serves on the ATP Tour. But he’s actually one of the sport’s best grinders. He uses his length and elite conditioning to get everything back in play, and then he takes his cuts when he gets good opportunities from the backhand side. Zverev’s two-hander is as good as anyone’s.
If Zverev can disrupt Djokovic from the baseline — doing what Alcaraz couldn’t — this is a match in which you’ll be better off having the player with plus-money odds. That’s because Zverev’s serve isn’t going to be nearly as shaky as Alcaraz’s was. Even in a match against the greatest returner of all time, it’s hard to envision the German running into too much trouble when it comes to holds. The weather is going to be a little cooler in Melbourne the rest of the week, and that should mean server-friendly conditions. Well, Zverev had the second-highest hold percentage on tour in 2024 (90.3%). He also made 70.6% of his first serves, which was the second-highest mark behind Sebastian Baez. But Baez rolls his first serves in, Zverev crushes them. The 27-year-old is arguably the most consistent server on the planet.
It would be a lot easier to get on board with backing Djokovic if he was healthy, as he has proven to be a very difficult matchup for Zverev. But two days doesn’t feel like enough for Djokovic to completely get over an injury — especially at his age. And before the 2025 season, I would have had Zverev rated as a slightly better player than Djokovic anyway. Zverev’s 2024 season is a bit under-appreciated because he didn’t break through and win his maiden Grand Slam title. But only Jannik Sinner won more matches than Zverev in 2024. He has taken his game to new heights since the last time he faced Djokovic.
Another thing that’s worth mentioning when it comes to this match is that it is possible that Djokovic won’t finish it. The 37-year-old was pretty clear in saying that he might have retired if he lost the second set to Alcaraz. Well, if this injury is pretty serious, who’s to say he won’t call it quits if he loses the opening set?
I won’t personally be playing anything in this match, as I do have a pending future on Djokovic to win the tournament at +450 and I’m already mad at myself for going against that outright in the Alcaraz match. But if I were playing this one, I’d be grabbing Zverev at +130. I have all the respect in the world for Djokovic, but I don’t see there being a 55% or 56% chance of him winning this match. This is more of a genuine 50-50 at this point in their careers, even if Djokovic did stuff Alcaraz in a locker in the quarters.
Lean: Zverev ML (+130)
