Tennis picks & predictions today for Day 5 of the 2025 Australian Open:
The 2025 Australian Open has already given us some fun matches, but the best is yet to come. The top ATP players in the world are in Melbourne for the season’s first major, and we’re not far from the portion of the tournament in which every match will feature household names. With that in mind, keep reading for my favorite selections for Day 5 of the matches on the men’s side, which will be played on Wednesday, January 15th and Thursday, January 16th for those of us in the United States. The day will feature guys like Jannik Sinner, Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur in action, so you won’t want to miss out on these matches. Also, check out my three women’s best bets!
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 41-33 (+5.33 units)
Fabian Marozsan vs. Frances Tiafoe
Tiafoe was visibly going through some heat exhaustion in his opening-round match, and we even saw the American vomit on the court. Naturally, that has led to some question marks for Tiafoe heading into the second round. But Tiafoe had two full days to recover and hydrate, so I don’t anticipate him having much trouble from a fitness standpoint. That said, I see some value in backing him to handle his business against Marozsan.
While last year could have gone better for Tiafoe, he was still 34-27 on the season. Marozsan was just 26-29. Tiafoe also had an edge in hold percentage (84.1% vs. 75.3%), and that’s really where it’s easy to fall in love with the American in this spot. Tiafoe might not be big in size, but he serves like a giant. He’s going to pick up quick, easy holds in these fast conditions. Marozsan isn’t going to do the same. Also, in terms of hard-court Elo rating, Tiafoe is in much better standing than Marozsan. Tiafoe is up at 1796.2 and Marozsan is at 1741.1.
There’s just more that suggests Tiafoe is the more dangerous hard-court player, and it’s not like Marozsan’s first-round match was a breeze. It took him four hours to beat Thiago Seyboth Wild. That’s only 10 minutes less than Tiafoe needed against Arthur Rinderknech. That said, if Tiafoe is back to feeling like himself, he should win this one and I don’t see it going the distance.
Bet: Tiafoe -1.5 Sets (-118)
Denis Shapovalov vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Nothing that we saw in 2024 suggests Musetti should be available at even-money odds against Shapovalov. While the Italian is probably better on natural surfaces, he was still 37-28 and made the semifinals of Wimbledon in 2024. Meanwhile, Shapovalov was just 26-24 in 2024, and he hasn’t had many deep runs in important tournaments.
I don’t think there’s a massive difference in terms of talent here. Both players have serious natural ability, and the ball-striking in this match should be fun to watch. But Musetti has a better understanding of what it takes to win big matches right now, so I trust him to come through in big moments.
Musetti also looked awesome in his win over Matteo Arnaldi in the opening round. Arnaldi is a tricky opponent, but Musetti came through in a match that was played at a very high level.
I also just like that Musetti has been significantly better than Shapovalov as a returner in recent years. That should come in handy if we see some tight sets. Also, for anybody that thinks that Shapovalov going forehand into Musetti’s one-handed backhand will be a huge edge, you might want to think again. There are a lot of weak one-handed backhands on tour, but Musetti’s isn’t one of them. However, the Musetti forehand into the Shapovalov one-handed backhand? That’s an advantage for the Italian.
Bet: Musetti ML (+100 – 1.5 units)
RELATED: Check out my three best bets for the women’s side for Day 5 of the Australian Open!
Matteo Berrettini vs. Holger Rune
Rune won two matches against Berrettini last year. In both matches, the Italian took the first set and then Rune figured out the best way to attack. Well, changing your strategy is difficult in a three-set match, but Rune was able to do it. So, I have a lot of faith in him doing it in a best-of-five match.
I know Berrettini hired Jannik Sinner’s former fitness coach — the one that might be responsible for him being suspended — and that could help him take his game to another level. But Rune is also back with his childhood coach, and that’s a pairing that has combined to produce Rune’s best tennis. So, even if Berrettini is a bit better in 2025 than he was in 2024, I feel the same way about Rune.
Rune is also just a much better baseliner than Berrettini. The Berrettini forehand is one of the biggest weapons in the sport, but Rune is going to pepper his backhand side. Occasionally, that leads to Rune quickly approaching and putting away weak shots with volleys. You’ll also see Berrettini run around for a forehand, but that’s troublesome. It opens up way too much of the court, allowing Rune to go to the other side for easy winners.
I don’t think this is a given or anything, but I feel Rune should be a -130 favorite or so. So, I grabbed this at plus-money odds as soon as I could.
Bet: Rune ML (+104 – 1.5 units)
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Ben Shelton
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Hubert Hurkacz
I occasionally like to throw in some parlays at majors, and I have one I like for Day 5. One of the legs calls for Carreno Busta to win one set against Shelton. I lost on a play like this in the first round, as Brandon Nakashima couldn’t serve out the first set to get the play home. He was up a break in the opening set, but Shelton broke him and ended up winning a tiebreaker. It was crushing. However, I like Carreno Busta to get on the board. The Spaniard doesn’t have the same sort of raw power that Nakashima does, but he’s a really good player when it comes to point construction. He also redirects pace very well. He’s just a little more reliable than Shelton when it comes to tennis IQ, and he’s a good enough server to rack up holds against a weak returner. All of that makes it hard to imagine Shelton winning in straights.
The other leg calls for Hurkacz to beat Kecmanovic. This one should be more straightforward. Hurkacz is one of the best servers on the planet, and he has looked great to start 2025. That’s not all that surprising considering he hired Nicolas Massu and Ivan Lendl as coaches. That’s an All-Star team in the coaching box. Now, Hurkacz is looking a little more dangerous from the baseline, and he’s coming to matches with better ideas of what to do. That should allow him to overcome Kecmanovic, who is nothing but an above-average player.
PARLAY: Carreno Busta +2.5 Sets vs. Shelton & Hurkacz ML vs. Kecmanovic (-128 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
