On Friday, July 10, tennis fans will be treated to yet another meeting between Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic. These two are set to battle in the semifinals of the 2026 Wimbledon Championships, and this is the definition of a blockbuster match — even if it sucks that Carlos Alcaraz isn’t lurking around to face the winner. I’m dropping my favorite play for this match below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page. I usually have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on the way lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his bets.
MORE: I have more picks for VSiN Pro subscribers. You can check them out here!
Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic
If you saw my pre-tournament futures, you probably know that I have a ticket on Djokovic to win Wimbledon at +900. However, given everything we have seen from the 24-time Grand Slam champion over the last few rounds, it’s a little hard to fully believe in him beating Sinner in the semifinals.
While I thought Djokovic had a shot at winning this event, my hope was that the 39-year-old would make relatively light work of an easy draw. Unfortunately, Djokovic wasn’t able to do that. He needed three hours and 15 minutes to beat Arthur Rinderknech, three hours and 27 minutes to beat Roman Safiullin, and an outrageous five hours and 14 minutes to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime (the longest match Djokovic has played at Wimbledon). With that in mind, even with two days off, Djokovic has put a lot of mileage on his body at the All England Club. That’ll make it hard for him to replicate his performance against Sinner from the Australian Open, which ended with a 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 victory in a remarkable match in the semifinals.
When Djokovic faced Sinner in Melbourne, he was essentially playing his first match in five days. Jakub Mensik withdrew from the event before a fourth-round date with Djokovic, then Lorenzo Musetti had to retire with a 2-0 lead in their match in the quarterfinals. That gave an older Djokovic the ability to strictly prepare for his match against Sinner, and it also allowed him to save his legs for some longer rallies. That luxury was never going to be there at Wimbledon, but Djokovic could have done some good for himself had he handled his business a bit easier in the earlier stages of this tournament.
Another thing we saw in Melbourne that we likely won’t see again: Sinner going 2 for 18 on break point opportunities. The Italian was consistently putting pressure on the Djokovic serve, but he was unable to cash in his opportunities. That was mostly due to some clutch serving from Djokovic, and it’s hard to call that a complete fluke. However, Djokovic is more likely to be great with the ball on his racquet than near-perfect, and the latter is probably necessary for him to out-duel this version of Sinner.
Of course, it is worth pointing out that Sinner hasn’t looked like the best version of himself at Wimbledon thus far. He was really pushed by Miomir Kecmanovic in a five-set match in the opening round, and he had to grind out wins over the rest of his opponents. However, even “grinding out” wins resulted in Sinner picking up four consecutive straight-set wins. He’s just on another level as a server at the moment, holding serve at 94.2% when looking at Tennis Abstract’s numbers. If he’s even remotely dialed in as a server here, Djokovic won’t have too many opportunities to break. Sinner’s baseline game is also bound to pick up, and perhaps facing an opponent he really respects will bring out his top level.
This just feels like a brutal spot for Djokovic, even with this tournament being played in his ideal conditions. Had he entered this match with less time on court, I’d probably feel differently. But with the way things stand, even with two days of rest, Sinner should win this match somewhat comfortably.
The issue here is that this match is lined extremely well. Without getting creative, it’s hard to come up with ways to play Sinner. Good thing getting creative is indeed an option. So, my suggestion is backing Sinner -1.5 sets with Alexander Zverev -1.5 sets against Arthur Fery. That parlay is available at plus-money odds.
Bet: PARLAY Sinner -1.5 Sets & Zverev -1.5 Sets (+105)
