Today we have a loaded slate of midweek MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox (-160, 8)
The Red Sox (68-58) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, dominating the opener 11-1 as -135 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 9-4 as -175 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Diamondbacks (66-61) hand the ball to righty Brandon Pfaadt (7-1, 3.11 ERA) and the Red Sox turn to lefty Payton Tolle (8-6, 2.97 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -140 home favorite and Arizona a +120 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Red Sox to complete the sweep, steaming Boston up from -140 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and a whopping 91% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 171-112 (60%) with a 10% ROI this season.
The Red Sox offer correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Boston is 7-0 in Tolle’s last seven starts. He has posted a 1.35 ERA in three August starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 20 innings pitched.
The Red Sox have the edge in the bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 2.93 (1st in MLB) compared to 4.21 for the Diamondbacks (18th).
6:05 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 9)
The Phillies (69-58) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 6-5 as massive -250 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 6-4 as -210 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Marlins (64-63) start righty Sandy Alcantara (13-7, 3.43 ERA) and the Phillies tap fellow righty Aaron Nola (4-9, 5.33 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -120 home favorite and Miami a +100 road dog.
Sharps have laid the short chalk with the Phillies to complete the sweep at home, pushing Philadelphia up from -120 to -125, with some shops inching higher toward -130.
At Circa, the Phillies are receiving 67% of moneyline bets but a massive 95% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are at .500 or better, as is the case here, the the home team off a win on Wednesdays has gone 24-13 (65%) with a 24% ROI this season.
Nola has pitched well in his last four starts, allowing 7 earned runs over 21.2 innings pitched (2.87 ERA).
Meanwhile, Alcantara has posted a 4.08 ERA on the road compared to 2.69 at home.
The Phillies are 34-30 (53%) at home. Conversely, the Marlins at 26-38 (41%) on the road, the 5th worst road record in MLB.
7:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 7)
The Brewers (78-48) dominated last night’s Interleague series opener 22-0, easily cashing as -165 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mariners (59-67) send out righty Logan Gilbert (9-7, 3.28 ERA) and the Brewers go with fellow righty Dustin May (6-7, 4.13 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -120 home favorite and Seattle a +100 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Brew Crew to earn another win at home, pushing Milwaukee up from -120 to -125 across the market.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Milwaukee is taking in 78% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Above .500 home favorites priced -130 or less off a win facing a below .500 opponent, like the Brewers here, are 30-20 (60%) with a 10% ROI this season.
The Brewers offer correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Milwaukee has the better bats, hitting .252 with 630 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .229 with only 489 runs scored.
May has pitched well since being acquired at the trade deadline, allowing only 3 earned runs in 13 innings pitched (2.08 ERA).
The Brewers have the better bullpen, posting a team ERA of 3.45 (3rd in MLB) compared to 4.24 for the Mariners (19th).
Mlwaukee is 42-22 (66%) at home, tied for the best home record in MLB. On the other hand, the Mariners are 26-38 (41%) on the road, the 6th worst road record in MLB.
