MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, July 9.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:35 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has had a rough season with a 5.02 ERA, but his lower 4.39 fielding independent points toward positive regression. He has allowed 1.1 home runs and three walks per nine innings. Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder owns a 4.01 ERA that has ballooned of late, allowing at least five runs in each of his past three starts, and now faces a Pirates offense that leads the league in home scoring with 5.7 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline +102
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -114
1:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea has pitched better than his 5.16 ERA would indicate, posting a 4.02 fielding independent with nine strikeouts and three walks per nine innings. Royals starter Michael Wacha owns a 3.45 ERA with one home run and 2.4 walks allowed per nine innings, while the Royals offense ranks 28th in road scoring with 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Royals vs. Mets Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
6:40 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers
Athletics starting pitcher Jack Perkins owns a sky-high 6.75 ERA, but his 4.00 fielding independent points toward positive regression with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Tigers lineup that ranks 21st in scoring with 4.2 runs per game. Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez has posted a 4.29 ERA while allowing only one home run per nine innings.
Pick: Athletics vs. Tigers Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
7:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo has pitched better than his 3.75 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 2.97 fielding independent with 10.9 strikeouts and just 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has a 5.03 ERA with 2.2 home runs and 3.3 walks allowed per nine innings, but he faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 26th in road scoring with 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Phillies vs. Reds Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
7:45 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante owns a 3.60 ERA but pitches to a ton of contact with only 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA at 4.34. The Brewers counter with Logan Henderson, who owns a 2.74 ERA with 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He also has the support of a lineup that ranks fourth in scoring with more than 5.1 runs per game and a bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA at 3.42.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -121
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -141
8:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers has pitched better than his 4.11 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.09 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs allowed and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi owns a 4.02 ERA and a 4.23 fielding independent while allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks ninth in road scoring with 4.8 runs per game, while the Rangers average just 3.8 runs per game at home, ranking 27th in the league.
Pick: Angels Moneyline +130 and Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Angels +112 and Total 7.8
