Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Friday, May 3rd
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with a run of clay-court tournaments over the next couple of months. Over the next couple of days, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Spain, as the top players in the world compete in a 1000-level event. The Mutua Madrid Open is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Friday, May 3rd.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 248-266 (+22.52 units)
Taylor Fritz vs. Andrey Rublev – Madrid
Andrey Rublev was able to earn a win over Carlos Alcaraz last round, so people are going to be quick to bet the Russian. But it’s important to note that Alcaraz was playing his first tournament in weeks, as he’s coming off an injury to his forearm. And Alcaraz said that he didn’t quite trust the forearm this week. So, I wouldn’t put too much weight in that win for Rublev. And the Russian has a very bad semi-final matchup in Taylor Fritz.
Not only has Fritz won four of the last five matches between these two, but the American is also a really dangerous player in Madrid. The higher altitude here allows Fritz to continue to play his power game, but it also allows him to dig in deeper on a few more rallies each match. That’s why Fritz was able to make a run in Madrid in 2023 and he has backed it up in 2024. Now, I like him to beat Rublev in a match in which I believe the odds are way off. This should be a lot closer to even money both ways. Rublev generally has a big advantage from the baseline over his opponents, especially in the power department. But Fritz can give it right back to him, and I think the American’s backhand will be the biggest weapon on the court. I also think Fritz is the more reliable server between those two. With that in mind, I’m not overthinking this too much. I like Fritz to advance to the final, where he’d be favored to win the second Masters 1000 title of his career.
Bet: Fritz ML (+134 – 2 units)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Richard Gasquet ML vs. Adrian Mannarino [Aix en Provence Challenger] + Mariano Navone ML vs. Emilio Nava [Cagliari Challenger] (-112 – 2 units)
Katie Volynets ML (-110 – 2 units) vs. Lois Boisson [Saint Malo Challenger]
PARLAY: Felix Auger-Aliassime +1.5 Sets vs. Jiri Lehecka [Madrid] + Luciano Darderi ML vs. Federico Coria [Cagliari Challenger] (+110 – 2 units)
Yu Hsiou Hsu ML (-122 – 2 units) vs. Tristan Schoolkate [Guangzhou Challenger]
