Tennis Best Bets: Mutua Madrid Open picks and predictions for Wednesday, April 24th

Zachary Cohen runs through his Mutua Madrid Open picks and tennis best bets for Wednesday, April 24th.

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Jun 2, 2023; Paris,France; Denis Shapovalov (CAN) reacts to a point during his match against Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) on day six at Stade Roland-Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Wednesday, April 24th

It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with a run of clay-court tournaments over the next couple of months. Over the next two weeks, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Spain, as the top players in the world compete in a 1000-level event. The Mutua Madrid Open is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Wednesday, April 24th.

I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.

 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

2024 Record: 228-238 (+30.15 units)

Jaume Munar vs. Nuno Borges – Madrid
Aslan Karatsev vs. Fabian Marozsan – Madrid

Jaume Munar is a clay-court specialist and I have backed him a bunch throughout his career. However, I think Nuno Borges has a shot at beating him. And I’d be shocked if it’s not at least competitive. With that in mind, I’m playing Borges on a juiced set spread and parlaying it with Fabian Marozsan, who is rightfully a massive favorite against Aslan Karatsev. That allows me to get good odds on Borges to just force a decider without having to risk the possibility of Munar winning a close match.

Munar is a really difficult player to beat on the clay, as he has 127 clay-court matches at the ATP level. The Spaniard just knows how to play on the dirt, where he moves really well along the baseline and hits with a ton of spin from both wings. However, Munar’s form has been lacking lately. In Monte Carlo, he got absolutely destroyed in a straight-set loss against Roman Safiullin, who has very little ATP-level experience on clay. Then, Munar went to Barcelona and lost to Jordan Thompson, who is very much a hard-court player. So, Munar is a little shaky right now, and Madrid’s conditions aren’t great for him. Borges also happens to be a very good clay-court player himself. He grew up on this surface, and his game is a bit of a better fit for faster conditions. Both of these guys know how to maneuver around these courts, but I prefer Borges’ compact swings and flat strokes. He should have a much easier time ending points than Munar. That ultimately makes it hard to envision Munar winning this in straight sets, or winning it at all.

For Marozsan, there’s just no reason to doubt him here. There’s obviously no such thing as a lock, and Karatsev has serious power from all over the court. But Karatsev also hasn’t played an ATP-level match since January 2nd, as he has been dealing with a significant injury. Karatsev is also just 21-20 on clay at the ATP level. That’s not a lot of clay-court experience for a 30-year-old veteran. The Russian also struggles to consistently hold serve, and Marozsan should give him trouble with his ability to return. I also think Marozsan’s drop shot is going to give Karatsev a lot of problems coming off an injury. He has one of the best drop shots on the planet.

PARLAY: Borges +1.5 Sets + Marozsan ML (-124 – 2 units)

Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs. Magda Linette – Madrid

Magda Linette is a tricky opponent on clay, but I think Elisabetta Cocciaretto will beat her and cover a small game spread. Both of these players know how to cover the court on clay, but it’s Cocciaretto that possesses the aggressive style to put an end to longer rallies. Linette likes to move her opponents around the court, utilizing slice shots and extreme precision. But Cocciaretto has the wheels required to track down a lot of Linette’s strokes. And I’m just not sure Linette will have an answer for Cocciaretto’s power. The Italian is going to go attack Linette’s weak serves and really put her front foot forward here. And while Linette can occasionally wait out unforced errors from her opponents, I don’t think she’ll get enough from Cocciaretto to win this match.

Bet: Cocciaretto -1.5 Games (-147)

Denis Shapovalov vs. Facundo Diaz Acosta – Madrid

I thought about taking Facundo Diaz Acosta to win this match, but I feel a little better about it being a lengthy battle. Shapovalov isn’t the greatest clay-court player in the world, but these conditions suit him rather well. Shapovalov has a booming, flat forehand that he can use to really move Diaz Acosta around the court — or just hit for winners. And the altitude will make it hard for Diaz Acosta to get to Shapovalov’s serve. Also, Shapovalov’s backhand can be a bit of a weakness, as he hits a one-handed backhand and needs time to set up. But the higher bounces in Madrid will give him that time, so Shapovalov might not rack up as many unforced errors as usual. However, Diaz Acosta is a proven clay-court player at this point in his career, and he just went toe to toe with Stefanos Tsitsipas, a better version of Shapovalov, in Barcelona. So, he should win a set here, at the very least. And ultimately, it just feels like these two lefties are bound to go back and forth for a while.

Bet: Over 21.5 Games (-138)

Added Plays

Tennys Sandgren ML (+114) vs. Tristan Boyer [Savannah Challenger]

Gijs Brouwer ML (-110 – 2 units) vs. Denis Kudla [Savannah Challenger]

Gabi Adrian Boitan ML (+108 – 2 units) vs. Maxime Janvier [Savannah Challenger]

Olga Danilovic ML (-125 – 1.5 units) vs. Clara Burel [Madrid]

Corentin Moutet ML (-164 – 2 units) vs. Juncheng Shang [Madrid]

Sara Bejlek ML (-125 – 2 units) vs. Anna Blinkova [Madrid]

Hailey Baptiste ML (+108 – 1.5 units) vs. Daria Saville [Madrid]

PARLAY: James Duckworth ML vs. Antoine Escoffier + Mattia Bellucci vs. Jules Marie (-124 – 2 units) [Shenzhen Challenger]

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