Doha, Buenos Aires, Delray Beach, Marseille tennis best bets for February 13th
This week, the top women in the world are in Doha for the Qatar TotalEnergies Open. This is the first 1000-level WTA event of the season, and I’ll be writing up tennis best bets for this one all week. Meanwhile, the men are scattered all over the globe, as there are 250-level tournaments in Buenos Aires, Delray Beach and Marseille. I’m only going to be writing up the 500-level events this season, so you’ll find my men’s plays on the Pro Picks page this week. That said, keep reading for my Doha best bets for Thursday, February 13th, and check out the picks page for all of my action for Buenos Aires, Delray Beach and Marseille.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorite picks below, and I occasionally add some picks throughout the day. Schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport, and I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Jessica Pegula – Doha
Jelena Ostapenko vs. Ons Jabeur – Doha
It would have been completely understandable if Alexandrova turned in a stinker after her dramatic three-set win over Aryna Sabalenka in the Round of 32. However, the 30-year-old came out and blitzed Elise Mertens, winning 6-4, 6-2 in an incredibly one-sided match. It’s now pretty clear that Alexandrova is playing some of the best tennis on the WTA Tour, as she won a title in Linz before heading to Doha. With that in mind, I really like the idea of taking Alexandrova to win a set against Pegula on Thursday. I just think she has a steadiness to her game that should result in a lengthy match against Pegula, at the very least. I wouldn’t even be surprised if she wins outright. But the play I wanted to make is the set spread, and the odds just aren’t favorable enough. So, I’m parlaying it with what I view as a safer player, getting the odds to a much more palatable -108.
The safer play calls for Jabeur to win a set against Ostapenko. The Tunisian actually beat Ostapenko in Abu Dhabi last week, earning a 7-6 (4), 7-5 win over her. That was definitely a match that could have gone either way, and Ostapenko’s talent makes it hard to rule out an outright win here. But I didn’t think Jabeur had her best level last week. That’s not the case here. Her 6-4, 6-2 win over Qinwen Zheng was insanely impressive, and she hasn’t dropped a set through three matches. Jabeur just loves these slower conditions, and she’s a massive fan favorite at this tournament. So, with all the momentum and adrenaline on her side, I’d be stunned if she can’t win at least one set. Ostapenko will likely be a little thrown off by the atmosphere.
PARLAY: Alexandrova +1.5 Sets & Jabeur +1.5 Sets (-108 – 1.5 units)
Elena Rybakina vs. Iga Swiatek – Doha
Considering I risked 1.5 units on Swiatek to win the Qatar TotalEnergies Open at +400 odds, I won’t personally be playing anything here. However, I really thought long and hard about laying 3.5 games with the Pole. We just saw Swiatek beat Rybakina in straight sets in January’s United Cup, earning a 7-6 (5), 6-4 win on those faster courts in Sydney. Those conditions really favored Rybakina, but she still wasn’t able to find a way to win. Well, the slow, windy conditions in Doha should give Swiatek a huge edge, which is why I think we’ll see at least one lopsided set here.
It’s just very difficult to breeze through service games in this tournament, as the ball bounces high and gives returners chances to get into points. That’s going to be rough for Rybakina, as Swiatek will have a massive advantage from the baseline here. Rybakina is a solid mover these days, but she’s not going to be able to hold her own in longer rallies with Swiatek. The Pole is going to play with shape and do everything she can to move Rybakina around the court. That should really fluster Rybakina, who also happens to have a lot going on off the court right now.
I also love that Swiatek was able to hang on by the skin on her teeth in her match against Linda Noskova last round. Swiatek usually responds nicely after a match that tight.
STRONG LEAN: Swiatek -3.5 Games (-105)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
