A warm VSiN welcome to Missouri, the 39th state to go live with legal sports wagering. Circa’s Derek Stevens and Mike Palm made the trip for today’s launch of the Circa Sports app — and seem ready to spread holiday betting cheer.
A Giant spread
The point spread is the great equalizer, right?
The Patriots take a 10-2 record into their MNF matchup against the 2-10 Giants, but I’m having trouble finding support from VSiN’s experts for host New England at the current number of -7.5.
Here are some excerpts from our Best Bets columns (click on name for more):
Matt Youmans: The Patriots are riding a nine-game winning streak (7-2 ATS). However, left tackle Will Campbell is out with an injury and the line is not in great shape in front of quarterback Drake Maye, who will be under pressure from the Giants’ aggressive defensive front.
Wes Reynolds: Even on a six-game losing streak, the G-Men have covered their last three games and four of their last six and should have likely won three of those last six games outright. Yes, they fired Brian Daboll three weeks ago, but this group is still giving good effort in a bad season.
Steve Makinen: There has been a dangerous line range for backing bigger home favorites in the non-Sunday late-season games, as home favorites of more than a TD have gone 27-6 SU but just 11-21 ATS (34.4%) since 2015. We must also acknowledge that the truly elite teams have actually been the most unreliable for bettors to back, as teams boasting an 83% or better won-lost record are 61-42 SU but 39-62 ATS (38.6%) in post Thanksgiving games since 2015.
Zach Cohen: If I had to take a side here, I’d probably grab the points with the Giants. However, the play I like most is the Over. Jaxson Dart will be back under center for New York, and the team averages 23.6 points per game with the rookie at the helm.
Dave Tuley: The Patriots are even more overrated than the Bears if you ask me.
Josh Appelbaum will post his MNF Sharp Report this morning.
MNF resources
>Opta AI player prop projections for MNF
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
NFL Week 13 in review
Week 13 favorites went 8-3 straight up, but underdogs had a 6-5 edge ATS. Unders were 7-4. 👉 Season ATS stats from Dave Tuley.
The biggest Week 13 injury: Justin Herbert broke a bone in his left hand in the Chargers’ 31-14 victory over the Raiders and will have surgery today. No word if he will be ready to play the Eagles (-3) on MNF.
Moving on to Week 14, Adam Burke has his analysis of the early lines based on results and injuries.
Patrick Meagher and Mike Somich do an NFL review/preview on the Sharp Money podcast.
Circa Survivor down to 45
>Circa Survivor: There are 45 live entries after four were eliminated with the Rams’ loss. One is pending on the Patriots tonight.
>Circa Million: The top 5 most-selected teams went 2-2-1 with wins by the Texans +4.5 and the Bills -3; losses by the Lions -2.5 and the Browns +5.5; push by the Bucs -3. Per Tuley, the top 5 consensus is 25-38-2 (39.7%) for the season.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
>Circa Friday Football Invitational: Connecticut pro bettor Jason Jarvis and Fox Sports analyst Chris Fallica are tied, but Jason has the Giants +7 pending. >>Standings.
>EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest: There are 15 undefeated contestants with 10 more pending on MNF. >>Leaderboard.
Preparing for Championship Weekend
Adam Burke sets up the week ahead in college football:
Nine conference championship games will make up the entire Week 15 college football schedule. Four games are on home campuses on Friday and five games are in neutral settings on Saturday, with some College Football Playoff spots hanging in the balance. The only game with CFP implications on Friday is North Texas vs. Tulane. Four of the five games on Saturday have CFP implications, though Ohio State and Indiana are both in and likely both have byes.
👉 Adam’s report on opening lines and early moves
Adam updates his power ratings and has Alabama a half-point favorite over Georgia, the actual favorite at -2 in the SEC title game.
I’m not sure if Georgia is granted any home-field advantage for the game being in Atlanta, but I’m not giving them any. Alabama has been in this environment a lot.
👉 Adam’s adjustments to his power ratings and games he likes.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets column and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
College basketball: Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s menu. Adam Burke will offer his college basketball Best Bets Monday-Saturday. You can find them on our college basketball page mid-morning.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
