MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, August 20.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has a 4.66 ERA overall this season with a 5.13 fielding independent, 1.7 home runs and three walks per nine innings allowed, but has turned a corner, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his past 12 starts. Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy is pitching to a lot of contact with 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings, and while he has a 3.42 ERA, he has a much higher 4.25 fielding independent. Since June 1, both bullpens have performed similarly, with the Cardinals 14th in ERA at 4.15 while the Reds are 17th at 4.21.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +101 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -124 and Total 9.7
2:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starting pitcher Randy Dobnak has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his eight appearances this season, but appears due for a ton of regression on his 1.73 ERA, as he has a 3.66 fielding independent with 5.4 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. Athletics starting pitcher Gage Jump overall has a 4.50 ERA, but his 3.77 fielding independent with 9.8 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings points toward positivity. Jump’s ERA dips to 2.60 away from home, while he has a 6.02 ERA at home. These two teams have the worst bullpen ERAs in the league, with the Athletics last at 5.68 and the Royals 29th with a 5.23 ERA.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline +125 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Athletics +118 and Total 9.6
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay might be due for a stumble on his recent hot run, as he has allowed three runs or fewer in all eight of his starts since the beginning of July but overall owns a 4.01 ERA and 4.79 fielding independent with 3.3 walks and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has a 3.82 ERA that might also go northward, as his fielding independent is 4.91 while giving up 1.5 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings. Both lineups are formidable, as the Braves are sixth in the league in runs per game and the White Sox are seventh, with both averaging just over 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: Braves vs. White Sox Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Robert Gasser has had his ups and downs this season with a 4.54 ERA while allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings, but has been much more effective at home with a 3.47 ERA and one home run per nine innings allowed compared to a 5.59 ERA with 2.2 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home. He also benefits from facing a Mariners lineup that is last in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game. Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby has a 3.89 ERA with only 1.1 home runs and two walks per nine innings allowed, but a career-low 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and faces a Brewers lineup that is fourth in the league in scoring with five runs per game.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -146
8:05 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom still has his good swing-and-miss stuff with 11 strikeouts per nine innings, but has a 3.95 ERA while giving up 1.3 home runs per nine innings and faces a Nationals lineup that, while hampered, still leads the league in scoring with 5.3 runs per game. Nationals starting pitcher Andrew Alvarez has a 3.72 ERA with only 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed, but is giving up four walks per nine innings, which could lead to an early exit. That would be magnified by a Nationals bullpen that is 27th in ERA at 4.84.
Pick: Nationals vs. Rangers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
