WNBA Picks
Well, we got our first glimpse of the LA Sparks without both Cameron Brink and Kelsey Plum last night, and the early returns were not good, to put it politely. They gave up 125 points to Toronto and Marina Mabrey tied the WNBA single game record with 53 points. The Aces covered against the Wings as the game went Over the total and the shorthanded Liberty lost outright to the lowly Storm on the road. Friday night features three games, with the Sun hosting the Mystics, the Sky and Fire rematching from two days ago, and Golden State and Atlanta will also rematch on the west coast. Here are the TSI projections for Friday night.
Connecticut Sun (+4.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 163.5
Connecticut is getting its act together a little bit, playing 6 points better than its season average over the last 5 games, while Washington is also pulling itself into playoff contention, playing 9.5 points better over its last 3 games than its season average. TSI projects Washington -4 with a total of 166 in this game, but I’m going to stay away altogether. The Over shows a bit of value, but lately these teams have both been playing games below season scoring averages, so either it’s trending downward or they’re due for regression. Until I get a better sense of the answer, I’m going to pass.
Chicago Sky (-4.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 173.5
These teams played two days ago and Chicago smacked Portland around, scoring 101 points in the process to get their first win since June 5th. Portland is playing some bad basketball lately, 7 points below their season average over the last 5 games. They’ve played Chicago twice and lost by double digits both times this season. TSI projects Chicago -3.5 with a total of 170.5, so although I’m going to pass on the side, I do like the Under here after a big scoring outburst last game has inflated this line in my opinion. The home/road splits formula also makes this total around 170 as well, so we’re getting a good number after this same matchup opened 168.5 two days ago.
Bet: Under 173.5 (Play to 172.5)
Golden State Valkyries (+1.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 164.5
Golden State easily handled Atlanta two days ago, controlling the game and keeping the score under the total. The market adjusted, opening this game Golden State -1.5 but that has flipped to Atlanta -1.5, which is what we saw two days ago. TSI projects Golden State -0.5 with a total of 166.5. The home/road splits favor the Valkyries again here, as Atlanta has been 4 points worse on the road, while Golden State has been 5 points better at home. I think it’s hard to beat a team like Atlanta twice in two days, so I’m not playing it officially, but I’d lean Golden State again here, as Atlanta has a back-to-back tomorrow with Seattle and then another road game on this trip to follow.
Lean: Valkyries +1.5
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