WNBA Picks
By the skin of our teeth, we were able to cash Portland +5.5 on Sunday as our lone bet of the day. They led most of the game but collapsed in the fourth quarter to lose by merely five. But as Vin Diesel said in “The Fast and the Furious,” it doesn’t matter if you win by an inch or a mile. Winning is winning. So we’re back on the horse Monday with a small, two-game slate featuring the Minnesota Lynx hosting the Golden State Valkyries and the Los Angeles Sparks hosting the Atlanta Dream. Here are the TSI projections for Monday, August 24th.
Minnesota Lynx (-6.5) vs Golden State Valkyries O/U 158.5
Minnesota has won an astounding 16 of its last 17 games, and they’re somehow playing six points better than their season average over their last three games. That’s frightening for the rest of the league. Golden State, on the flip side, has lost two straight and is playing 8.5 points below its season average over the last three games. TSI projects Minnesota -7.5 with a total of 156.5, and I do like Minnesota here. The Lynx are averaging 94 points per game over their last ten, which is a bad sign for a Golden State offense that’s merely mustered 78 per game in its last five. I think Minnesota wins comfortably tonight, as the recent trends formula predicts a 14-point win for the Lynx.
Bet: Lynx -6.5 (Play to -7.5)
Los Angeles Sparks (+9.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 181.5
LA finally got a win in their last game, although it was against the Sun, so a grain of salt needed there. They had lost their previous six and are playing ten points below their season average. Their season is done; they have no chance of making the playoffs. They traded their best player, and the footage of their gameday shootarounds looks like a local YMCA run. It’s bad in LA right now. Atlanta, on the other hand, is playing 15.5 points above its season average over the last three, including a 30+ point win against this same LA team just a couple games ago. TSI projects Dream -5 with a total of 183 but has definitely not accounted for the steep drop off in motivation for LA lately, so I don’t feel the model is dialed in on the Sparks right now. Atlanta has outscored opponents 102-84 on average over its last five games. It’s going to be all Dream in this one.
Bet: Dream -9.5 or better
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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